The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs wraps up on Sunday night with a marquee matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills.
Baltimore is led by the best backfield in football, with Derrick Henry at running back and Lamar Jackson under center. My NFL picks are backing both superstars in the player props market, and I'm also betting on a Buffalo linebacker to have a busy night.
Here are my best free Ravens vs. Bills props for January 19.
Ravens vs Bills props
Henry Over 19.5 rush attempts (-115 at BetMGM)- Jackson Under 0.5 interceptions (-130 at BetMGM)
Bernard Over 3.5 tackle assists (-115 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Ravens vs Bills props
Prop bet #1: Derrick Henry Over 19.5 rush attempts
It's expected to be a frigid 15 degrees at Orchard Park on Sunday night. That's exactly the kind of cold-weather playoff game where you want to feed the ball to your power running back and wear down the defense.
Derrick Henry went off in his first year with the Baltimore Ravens, with the five-time Pro Bowler rushing for 1,921 yards on a league-high 325 carries. Henry rumbled for 199 yards on 24 carries against the Buffalo Bills when these teams clashed in Week 4.
With Buffalo likely stacking the box to contain Baltimore's ground game this time around, I'm not sure if Henry will run with the same efficiency, but he'll still get plenty of work. The 247-pound sledgehammer has logged at least 20 rush attempts in four straight games, averaging 24.3 carries per game over that span.
Prop bet #2: Lamar Jackson Under 0.5 interceptions
In 18 starts this season, Lamar Jackson threw for 43 touchdowns against just four interceptions. What makes that stat even more impressive is that three of those picks weren't his fault and went off the hands of his receivers.
Jackson doesn't take many high-risk throws, as indicated by his aggressiveness percentage at Next Gen Stats. That metric tracks the percentage of throws into tight coverage, and Jackson ranks 40th out of 43 qualifying passers.
Buffalo's defense hasn't picked off a pass in five of its last seven games and finished the regular season tied for 25th in the league in passes defended (60). When you also factor in the freezing temperatures in this game and a vulnerable Bills run defense, there's a good chance that offensive coordinator Todd Monken will draw up even fewer passing plays than usual for Jackson.
Prop bet #3: Terrel Bernard Over 3.5 tackle assists
Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard finished the regular season with 104 total tackles and tied for the team lead with 49 assisted tackles despite missing four games. It's no coincidence that Bernard was sidelined when Henry ran all over Buffalo in Week 4, and he'll play a big role against the run on Sunday.
Bernard led the Bills with six total tackles in the Wild Card Round but registered just a single tackle assist. However, he had 4+ assisted tackles in his previous seven games, averaging 5.4 tackle assists per game during that span. The Ravens like to run the ball while throwing short and intermediate passes up the middle, which will provide plenty of opportunities for Bernard to make plays.
Veteran LB Matt Milano returned to the Bills lineup last month after a 14-month absence and they'll likely employ more defenders near the line of scrimmage to contain Baltimore's rushing attack. Multiple defenders swarming to the ball will increase the chances of Bernard getting an assisted tackle as opposed to the solo variety.
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