The Baltimore Ravens enter Week 10 as 7.5-point favorites as they travel to the sunshine state and face off against the Miami Dolphins on Thursday night. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s status is still up in the air, but there are still plenty of player props we feel comfortable throwing down on.
We bring you our favorite free NHL prop picks and predictions for Week 10's TNF battle between the Ravens and the Dolphins.
Ravens vs Dolphins prop picks
- Gaskin Under 42.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Brown Over 56.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Jackson longest completion Over 36.5 yards (-115)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for TNF, here are two of the best welcome bonuses available:
USA: Lamar Jackson Over 50.5 rush yards + 1+ Pass TD BOOSTED to +100 at Caesars. Claim Now
Canada: Get a 100%-matched sign-up bonus (up to $400) at BetVictor. Claim Now
Ravens vs Dolphins TNF props
Gaskin for a friend
Myles Gaskin hasn’t done much with his snaps this season. He has just 86 rushes in nine games and has totaled more than 80 yards just once this year. He averages fewer than 39 yards per game on the ground and has topped 40 yards rushing just once since Week 3. Miami rushes the ball at the second-lowest rate in the league and now faces a Baltimore rush defense that sits second in the league in average explosive rush rate against.
Gaskin has just eight rushes of 10 or more yards this year and none of them have gone for more than 18 yards. The Miami running back gained just 34 yards on 20 carries last week against a Houston rush defense that ranks 21st in defensive rush success rate.
Yes, Dalvin Cook went for over 100 yards last week versus the Ravens, but this Baltimore defense still only gives up just 80.5 rushing yards to opposing RBs this year.
Gaskin has not impressed this season, the Dolphins run at one of the lowest rates in football, and the Ravens are a Top-6 unit against the run, per success rate metrics.
FanDuel is still hanging a 42.5-yard rushing total while most other books have fallen to 41.5 and trending even further south. His rushing total closed at 35.5 yards versus the Bills two weeks ago and that’s where we think this number should be.
PICK: Myles Gaskin Under 42.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Access Hollywood
Only the Titans allow more targets to opposing wide receivers than the Dolphins. Opposing WRs average 23.2 targets and register 15 catches for 199 yards and 1.3 TDs per game. All of those are Bottom-5 marks in the league.
With a backfield that features Devonta Freeman and Le’Veon Bell, Lamar Jackson has been hammering Marquise Brown with targets this year. His 8.62 targets per game rank 15th among pass-catchers but over his last four games, Hollywood is averaging 10.25 targets per game — and he’s also averaging 85.3 receiving yards per contest.
Brown’s receiving total opened at 56.5 yards, which is 10 yards shorter than this total closed last week versus the Vikings. Brown was limited on Monday but was a full participant at practice Tuesday and Sammy Watkins coming back does more damage to rookie Rashod Bateman than it does Brown.
Hollywood had three catches of 20 or more yards just last week, as Baltimore is third in explosive pass rate, and Brown has topped this total in five of his seven games.
PICK: Marquise Brown Over 56.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Piece of the Jackson
The Miami defense held a rusty Tyrod Taylor in check last week, as the returning QB completed just two passing plays longer than 15 yards. However, one of those went for 39 yards. Heading into TNF, Lamar Jackosn’s longest completion total is sitting at 36.5 yards and that’s a number that has cashed against the Dolphins in four of their last six games.
No team has allowed more explosive pass plays (pass plays of 15 yards or longer) than the Dolphins this year at 41. That could be great news for Jackson, whose offense has 35 explosive pass plays on the year, which is the fifth-highest mark in football.
Jackson has 10 passes of 35-plus yards this year and has completed a pass of at least 35 yards in six of his eight games this year. Brown is a threat to help cash this Over on any deep route while Sammy Watkins is also averaging 16.2 yards per catch, which is a Top-10 mark.
PICK: Lamar Jackson Over 36.5 yards longest completion (-115 at bet365)
Season to date: 58-63 -5.90 units (Risking to win 1 unit per play)
