Ravens vs Jaguars SNF Prop Bets: Lawrence Limited by Stingy Baltimore D

Prop bet #1: Keaton heatin’ up

For a guy with just 38 carries all season, Ravens rookie Keaton Mitchell has made something happen each game when he touches the ball.

In the five games where he’s had a tote, the back out of East Carolina has exploded with at least one run of 20 yards in each.

Against the Rams, he had nine carries for 54 yards, punctuated with a 27-yard big gainer. He ripped off a 29-yard run against the Chargers in the previous game, and 21 vs the Bengals the game before. You get the picture.

The Jaguars are among the top run defenses in the NFL, surrendering just 92.2 yards per game, but a deeper look into the numbers suggests they’re susceptible to getting gashed on the ground.

In Jacksonville’s last five games coming out of the bye, nine players have broken a run longer than the 14.5 line set for Sunday's Keaton Mitchell odds. Three teams had multiple players rip off long gains in the same contest.

The Ravens love to bring Mitchell in to change up the pace, and the kid literally strikes like lightning. There shouldn’t be a reason he gets bogged down against the Jags.

Keaton Mitchell prop: Longest rush Over 14.5 yards (-140 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Not above the law

At first, Trevor Lawrence odds for this matchup seem low, given that he's coming off a 257-yard passing line despite losing 31-27 to the Browns, who happen to have the top pass defense in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per game. 

However, that game seems to be the outlier, when you look at his efforts against other Top-10 passing defenses in the NFL. 

Against the sixth-ranked Chiefs, Lawrence threw for only 216 yards. The Saints are seventh, and they held Jacksonville’s starting pivot to 204 yards. 

The ninth-ranked Atlanta Falcons limited Lawrence to 207 yards passing in London. Just for good measure, the 49ers, just 16th against the pass, though arguably boast the best defense in the NFL, held him to 185 yards.

This matters because the Ravens are the fourth-best yards allowed vs the pass, one of seven teams that limit opponents to under 200 yards per game. 

They had their own outlier moment last week, when Matthew Stafford lit them up for 294 yards passing in a rain-soaked 37-31 Ravens OT win. 

That was just the third time all year a passer topped Lawrence’s 228.5 total, with Stafford joining Jared Goff and CJ Stroud.

It might be close, but Baltimore should get back to the business of shutting down the opposing QB. 

Trevor Lawrence prop: Under 228.5 yards passing (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Lamar’s legs lag

We’ll finish with Baltimore’s own quarterback, Lamar Jackson.

For the last two games, Jackson has carried the ball 11 times, with moderate to good success. Prior to those games, he had 10 or more carries in just two of his last eight contests.

He should have plenty of clean pockets to throw in, as the Jaguars surrender 265.2 yards passing per game, with only the Washington Commanders allowing more yards.

While Jacksonville getting shredded through the air isn’t a great tactic, what it has done is keep the quarterbacks from taking off. 

In the Jaguars’ last five games, no opposing QB has even had five carries in a game against them. Granted, the Browns, Bengals, Texans, Titans and 49ers don’t sport those recognized running pivots. 

But even the times they’ve played QBs that get it done with their legs, they haven’t broken out much. 

Patrick Mahomes ran it just seven times, Josh Allen carried four. Even the Saints’ combination of Taysom Hill — put into the game to run — and Derek Carr combined for eight total carries.

That also has to do with coverage: Jacksonville plays zone on 67.3% of drop backs, the third- highest in the NFL. Just 32.7% of coverage is man, the third lowest, so defenders’ backs aren’t turned and running with receivers, limiting those gaping running lanes that dual-threat pivots seek out.

He'll break off a couple of runs here and there, but I expect Lamar Jackson odds to land safely on the Under. 

Lamar Jackson prop: Under 9.5 rush attempts (-130 at DraftKings)