Ravens vs Jaguars Week 12 Picks and Predictions: Opportunistic Baltimore Defense Will Strike

Two teams on vastly different trajectories will meet on Sunday afternoon in Jacksonville when the Baltimore Ravens travel south to face off with the Jaguars.

The Ravens have won four consecutive games after a sluggish 3-3 start to the season. The Jaguars have lost six of their last seven contests after starting 2-1 with dominating wins over expected playoff teams at the time. Will Baltimore continue their winning streak against a flailing Jaguars team?

Find out in our free NFL betting picks and predictions for the Ravens vs. Jaguars on Sunday, November 27. 

Ravens vs Jaguars best odds

Ravens vs Jaguars picks and predictions

The Ravens have gotten back to their roots of being a dominant run offense while also shutting down opponents’ run games. In their four-game winning streak, Baltimore has averaged 173.5 rushing yards per game while only allowing 60.3 rushing yards per contest. The Ravens rank second in the NFL in rushing offense and third in rushing defense. 

This has been without J.K. Dobbins and mostly without Gus Edwards. Dobbins is still out, but Edwards should be a full go on Sunday. Lamar Jackson also seems to be mostly healthy, with no questionable tag this week. The Jaguars have allowed over 200 rushing yards twice this season to the Eagles and Giants.

Some of the improved defensive play can be chalked up to a combination of returning players and new faces. Jason Pierre-Paul missed the first three games of the season and has hit his groove lately with a pick and two tackles for loss last week. Justin Houston returned from a three-week absence just in time for the four-game win streak and has seven sacks in those four contests. 

Roquan Smith joined the Ravens via trade and has 12 tackles already in his two appearances, including a tackle for loss. Smith had eight tackles and two interceptions in his lone career game against the Jaguars in 2020 with the Chicago Bears. 

The improved linebacker play and pass rush have also made a huge difference to a secondary that allows the sixth most passing yards per game this season. The defense has forced at least one turnover in every game this season, and they rank second in the league with 19 total takeaways. 

Trevor Lawrence has thrown six interceptions this season, and the Jaguars have lost seven fumbles. Baltimore will put enough pressure on Lawrence on Sunday to force a mistake or two. My best bet is on Lawrence to throw another interception. 

My best bet: Trevor Lawrence Over 0.5 interceptions (-120)

Ravens vs Jaguars spread analysis

The Jaguars are at home, but that has not necessarily been a safe haven for them this season. Jacksonville is only 2-2 at home this year, with the two wins coming against the Colts and Raiders and the two losses to the Texans and Giants. 

The Jaguars have only played three teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, so their 3-7 record is even more disappointing than just the number itself. Meanwhile, the Ravens have yet to lose a game to a current non-playoff team. They are a perfect 5-0 against such teams. 

The Ravens are 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a loss ATS. The Jaguars are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss.

The Ravens have some mismatches here in controlling the time of possession and getting after Lawrence and Travis Etienne Jr. in the backfield. It is extremely difficult to beat a team that wins the turnover margin almost every time. I like the Ravens to both win and cover here on the road. 

Ravens vs Jaguars Over/Under analysis

We talked about the Ravens' defense vastly improving the past few weeks, and that has shown in their O/U record. Six of the past seven Baltimore games have gone Under the total, including last week, where the total was only 41.5 points. The Jaguars have also been on a hot streak of Unders, with five of the last six games going Under the total.

The Under is a perfect 5-0 in the last five Baltimore games played in November and 6-0 in the last six Jacksonville games played this month. The Under is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings between these two teams. 

Baltimore has found their groove of ball control and running the football. They will continue that this week on the road against a team that is heading in the wrong direction. You must roll with the Under here if you want to play the total. 

Ravens vs Jaguars betting trend to know

The Under is 11-1 in the Jaguars' last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record. Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Jaguars.

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