Week 14 offers us an NFC North clash between the 8-4 Baltimore Ravens and 5-7 Pittsburgh Steelers.
Baltimore has won four last five, including a 10-9 away victory over the Broncos. Pittsburgh has won three of their previous five and defeated the Falcons in Atlanta for their second-consecutive victory.
Can Baltimore remain atop the AFC North? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for Ravens vs. Steelers on December 11.
Ravens vs Steelers best odds
Ravens vs Steelers picks and predictions
The Ravens will likely be without starting quarterback Lamar Jackson, and since Jackson accounts for most of the offense, his absence is a tremendous hit to the league's 12th-best scoring offense. Backup Tyler Huntley has starting experience, but the offense scored only 10 points last week with him at the helm.
Huntley threw more interceptions than touchdowns during the seven games Jackson missed last season. Tight end Mark Andrews will be his top receiver, and the Ravens will hope running back Kenyan Drake can make up for the lost production from Jackson on the ground.
Rookie QB Kenny Pickett has been steady for the Steelers since taking over the starting job from Mitch Trubisky. He’s slung it for 1,797 yards and has also scrambled for 209 yards and three TDs in nine appearances. However, Pickett has also been turnover prone early on, with a TD/INT ratio of 4/8 on the season.
After a slow start to his 2022 campaign, RB Najee Harris is starting to find his way and has rushed for 86 yards or more in three of his last five games. Wideout Diontae Johnson, TE Pat Freiermuth, and rookie WR George Pickens have also made modest contributions to the 28th-ranked Steelers scoring offense.
This division clash matters to both teams, but the offenses aren’t nearly as good as the respective defenses. Neither team offers much in the way of scoring, and the defenses should take center stage. Rushing the football is paramount to the success of both offenses, and each unit will struggle against two very solid rushing defenses. Baltimore allows the second-fewest rushing yards in the league heading into Sunday.
At the same time, Pittsburgh ranks seventh in rushing yards allowed while yielding the third-least amount of TDs. Passing the ball would be easier, but neither QB has been very effective. Huntley and Pickett have good matchups with the 25th-ranked Ravens and 28th-ranked Steelers passing defenses, but they make too many mistakes and won’t be able to take advantage of the mismatches.
The Under is 3-0 over these two teams' last three meetings, and we should expect a sloppy offensive contest that ends Under 37 points.
My best bet: Under 37 (-114 at Unibet)
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Ravens vs Steelers spread analysis
Pittsburgh is a -2.5 favorite, but I’d rather take the Steelers straight up at -140.
Baltimore is tied with Cincinnati for the AFC North lead and will be motivated to win this game as it doesn't want to lose too much ground in Jackson's absence. Huntley is a capable backup, but Baltimore was 1-5 over Huntleys six regular season starts in 2021.
The Steelers offense scored 106 points over its last five games, which is much better than their 17.9 season average. Baltimore has allowed 75 points over its last five contests — five points less per game than their 19.7 average.
The Ravens are No. 9 in overall defensive DVOA, while the Steelers are 13th. Baltimore has the fourth-best turnover margin, while Pittsburgh is eighth. Both QBs turn the ball over and face opportunistic defenses. The Ravens average 1.7 takeaways per game, and Pittsburgh averages 1.4.
Baltimore is 4-7-1 ATS but 4-2 ATS as the away team. Pittsburgh is 6-5-1 ATS and 2-2-1 at Acrisure Stadium.
Ravens vs Steelers Over/Under analysis
I like the Under as my best bet for this game, and I have some additional notes for you.
Jackson exited at the end of the first quarter against Denver, and the Ravens' offense sputtered without their leader. Baltimore still managed to rush for 91 yards against an excellent Broncos defense. The Ravens were just 3-13 on third down, and we’ll likely see several three-and-outs against a good Pittsburgh defense.
Baltimore allowed 42 points at home to Miami back in Week 2 but hasn’t surrendered 27+ points in any game since. The Over is 4-8 through the Ravens' first 12 and 3-3 as the away side. The Over is 5-7 over the Steelers' dozen games and 2-3 at home.
Ravens vs Steelers betting trend to know
The Under is 4-1 in the Ravens' last five games vs. AFC teams. Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Steelers.
Ravens vs Steelers game info
| Location: | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, December 11, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Steelers -1.5, O/U 37 |
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