The Pittsburgh Steelers are limping into the postseason with three consecutive losses, and Russell Wilson & Co. have gone cold at the worst possible time.
After taking a look at the latest Russell Wilson odds ahead of their clash against the Cincinnati Bengals, I'll be fading any expectations of a vintage performance from the veteran in my top NFL picks for Saturday, January 4.
Russell Wilson player prop picks
- Best bet
Wilson Under 228.5 passing yards
(-115 at BetMGM) - SGP Pick
Wilson Under 228.5 passing yards
Wilson Over 0.5 interceptions
Bengals moneyline
(+375 at BetMGM)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Russell Wilson prop pick
My best bet
Russell Wilson Under 228.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
While Russell Wilson passed for 414 yards and three scores the last time he played against the Cincinnati Bengals, there are several reasons why we should be fading his performance this weekend.
If anything, that prior performance has proven to be a massive outlier, as the Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback hasn’t thrown for more than 217 yards in any of his last four games since. In fact, Wilson hasn't been able to complete more than 66.7% of his passes in any of these games, including averaging just 6.6 yards per passing attempt or less in each of those outings.
Even though Wilson is still capable of generating some big plays, most notably to leading wide receiver George Pickens, those deep shots have been few and far between in recent weeks. And while the Bengals have some notable issues in defending the passing game, nothing that Wilson has shown in the last month suggests that the Steelers will rely on trying to take advantage of that rather than leaning on their run-first offense.
Additionally, the Baltimore Ravens will have most likely prevailed over the Cleveland Browns before this game even tarts, meaning that Pittsburgh will already know it can’t clinch the AFC North or receive a home game in the first round of the playoffs.
That doesn’t mean that Wilson won’t play, as Pittsburgh will still want to play for seeding (and, potentially, to avoid playing Baltimore in the first round). However, it does mean that the Steelers will likely be careful with their veteran QB and other key players.
Any small injury or sign of distress — or a game that gets out of hand in either direction — might mean that Wilson or some of his key targets come out of the game. The possibility of a changing situation for the Steelers represents nothing but downside risk, so I’m taking Wilson to finish below his yardage prop.
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Russell Wilson same-game parlay
Russell Wilson Under 228.5 passing yards
Russell Wilson Over 0.5 interceptions
Bengals moneyline
As a part of his recent string of poor play, Wilson has thrown picks in each of his last two games. Although Cincinnati may not be able to defend the pass well, they have forced 15 interceptions this year, ranking among the top teams in the league in forcing turnovers in the aerial game.
With my expectations rather low on Wilson, the Bengals are likely to win this game. Joe Burrow has Cincinnati firing on all cylinders offensively down the stretch, and despite what happened in the last meeting, it’s hard to imagine Wilson and the Steelers keeping up with the Bengals in a sustained shootout.
To look at this game even more simply: the Bengals have won four games in a row heading into this one, while the Steelers have lost three in a row. Cincinnati won’t know their fate when they play, so we know it will be motivated to win regardless.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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