Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos came down to Earth last weekend when they took a 42-17 drubbing at the hands of the Detroit Lions. But the Broncos can still keep themselves in range of a playoff berth if they can emerge victorious on Sunday in a very winnable home game against the New England Patriots.
Denver is a heavy favorite in the Week 16 odds, as it faces a 3-11 Patriots team that lacks any sort of offensive punch. New England has won just one of its last seven games, scoring seven points or less in three of those outings. However, the Patriots can play a little defense, which could make life tricky for Russell Wilson bettors.
Keep reading to see which bets I like as we take a deeper look at the Russell Wilson odds in my free NFL picks for Patriots vs. Broncos on Sunday, December 24.
For a deeper analysis of the SNF odds matchup, make sure to also check out our Patriots vs. Broncos picks and SNF player prop picks!
Russell Wilson SNF prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Russell Wilson SNF prop pick
Over 207.5 passing yards (+110)
While last week wasn’t the most impressive performance of the year for the Broncos offense, Wilson continued his solid play that has kept the Denver Broncos in the playoff race. He threw for a touchdown and ran for another in the loss, accounting for most of the Denver offense. More importantly for us, he also threw for 223 yards — hitting the Over on the yardage prop I was backing.
That marks the second straight game in which Wilson has thrown for at least 220 yards, as well as the third time in the last five weeks. Overall, Wilson has hit this mark six times this year and is averaging 202.3 yards per game for the season.
On the surface, that makes his passing prop of 207.5 yards look just about fair at home against the New England Patriots. New England is a horrendous offensive team paired up with a solid defense. However, while it may not get embarrassed often because of that defensive unit, there are weaknesses there.
The Patriots are extremely tough against the run, giving up an NFL-best 3.1 yards per rush. Opponents who try to control the game on the ground find themselves running into a brick wall of a front seven.
With that said, New England is far more vulnerable to the passing game. The Patriots allow 6.4 yards per passing attempt, which ranks them right in the middle of the league. Opponents know to take advantage of this, as New England is now allowing 223.4 yards per game through the air.
Wilson hasn’t been asked to carry too heavy a load in the Broncos offense, but he has steadily accumulated yardage — especially against defenses that are prone to doing so. I expect that same slow and steady approach to pay off on Sunday night. It’s another week in which I’m backing Wilson to hit the Over on his passing yardage prop.
Prop: Over 207.5 passing yards (+110 at DraftKings)
Russell Wilson SNF same-game parlay
Russell Wilson Over 207.5 passing yards
Wilson Under 1.5 passing touchdowns
Patriots +7.5
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This looks like it will be a game in which Wilson will be able to move the ball through the air. I even think he’ll manage to do enough to get the Broncos a victory and keep them in the thick of the AFC playoff picture. However, that doesn’t mean it’s going to be a big day for the Broncos' offense.
Wilson’s passing touchdown prop has been set at 1.5 scores as usual. That’s a reasonable number, but we know it’s a tough ask for the Broncos QB who has thrown for multiple scores in only one of his last five games.
The Patriots will only make that task more difficult. Over the last five games, New England has allowed just seven touchdowns total and only five through the air. Three of those came last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, and this Denver offense doesn’t hold a candle to the Patrick Mahomes-led unit. I’m comfortable predicting Wilson will stay Under that 1.5 passing TD mark.
The stinginess of the New England defense has also kept the Patriots in games, even if it hasn’t allowed them to win many of them. While they're 1-5 in their last six outings, they’ve only lost one of those games by at least seven points.
This is not a team that gives up blowout losses, even to teams accustomed to scoring in bunches. The Patriots struggle to score, so I expect Denver to pull out a close win, but it won’t be easy.
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