Russell Wilson Odds and TNF Props: Chiefs Keep Broncos QB in Check

With the Sean Payton era in Denver off to a rough start, it looks like not even a Super Bowl-winning coach has a quick fix for the Broncos, and Russell Wilson odds continue to reflect the slog.

The nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback, who signed a five-year, $245 million contract extension upon landing in the Mile High City, has looked better this season but is a far cry from the passer who won Super Bowl 48.

Now, coming off an embarrassing loss to the feeble New York Jets, Wilson must lead the Broncos into Arrowhead Stadium tonight to take on the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs — as massive underdogs based on the Week 6 odds.

You can see how I’m betting on the Broncos quarterback as we dive into the TNF odds in my free NFL picks below.

Also be sure to check out our Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions, TNF prop picks, and our best Patrick Mahomes odds and props spotlight for Week 6.   

Russell Wilson TNF prop picks

• Wilson u226.5 passing yards
• Wilson u226.5 passing yards/Mahomes u274.5 passing yards/Pacheco anytime TD

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Russell Wilson TNF prop pick

Russell Wilson Under 226.5 passing yards (-110)

While the Broncos offense has been more competent this season with Wilson being more efficient, he’s not putting up big-time passing numbers. His line of 226.5 passing yards on TNF is going to be a hard number to top given how impressive the Chiefs defense has been this season.

Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has the Chiefs seventh in EPA per play, and they’re even better against the pass, sitting fifth in EPA per dropback.

With an explosive pass rush led by All-Pro Chris Jones, the Chiefs have been able to apply pressure to speed up quarterback processes and force them into non-ideal passing situations. Meanwhile the Broncos’ up and down offensive line play has led them to giving up the eighth-most sacks in the NFL

As a team, Kansas City is giving up just 204.2 passing yards per game this season and held the best quarterback they’ve faced, Trevor Lawrence, to just 216 yards. Thanks to a deep defensive back room, the defense has been able to hold opposing quarterbacks to 5.9 yards per attempt, fifth-best in the league and well below the NFL average.

That secondary has a favorable matchup against Denver’s pass-catching corps too. Wilson continues to struggle to build chemistry with the likes of Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, who sit 50th and 61st in receiving yards, respectively. Neither of them has topped 100 yards in a game this season and rookie Marvin Mims leads the team in receiving yards on just 12 targets.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have spent draft and free-agent capital on building this secondary and it’s paid dividends. Starting cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and L’Jarius Sneed have both given up under 200 yards through five games and are dominating when targeted. 

McDuffie is holding quarterbacks to a passer rating of 82.9 and giving up just 6.8 yards per target while Sneed is at a 63.3 rating and 4.9 per target. They’ve been one of the best cornerback duos in the league. Third cornerback Joshua Williams has also looked great with a 65.3 passer rating allowed when targeted. 

All in all, Wilson is going to have a tough time throwing for 227 cards against a strong pass rush and a dynamic secondary. He’s only gone over that number twice in five games this season. Both performances came against defenses who rank in the back half of the league; the Miami Dolphins (22nd in EPA per play) and the Washington Commanders (29th in EPA per play).

In Payton’s offense, Wilson also rarely is asked to push the ball deep — something he did quite well in Seattle. He’s sitting 21st in air yards this season behind quarterbacks like Kenny Pickett and Joshua Dobbs.

Surprisingly, Patrick Mahomes is behind Wilson in air yards too, which could set up for a run-heavy Thursday evening from the Chiefs.

Prop: Russell Wilson Under 226.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

Russell Wilson TNF same-game parlay

Wilson Under 226.5 passing yards (-110)

Mahomes Under 274.5 passing yards (-110)

Pacheco anytime TD (-138)

50% boost available

+525 +788 at bet365

Wilson and the 1-4 Broncos are going into Arrowhead with the Chiefs as big favorites at -10.5, thanks in part to their defense and the run defense of Denver. 

With the offense that the Chiefs have been known for under Andy Reid not being nearly as explosive as in years past and with Travis Kelce dealing with a nagging ankle injury, they may lean on their run game a little more to take pressure off Mahomes and take advantage of a mismatch.

While Mahomes’ lack of wide receiver talent hasn’t caught up to his play, sitting fourth in EPA per play among quarterbacks, it has impacted the big plays he’s able to hit, and in turn his passing yards numbers.

The two-time MVP has thrown for at least 275 yards only twice in five games this season and is averaging 257.4 per game. And while the Broncos secondary has struggled, they’re allowing less than 275 passing yards per game (263).

Given the way Denver’s defense has parted like the Red Sea this year, Mahomes won’t need to be throwing the ball all around the yard. The Broncos defense is 32nd in EPA per play, 31st in EPA per rush, and is giving up 187.6 rushing yards per game; the worst in the NFL by over 30 yards per game.

This sets Isiah Pacheco up well for a big day, especially with the way he’s been playing since Week 2. In his last four games, the Rutgers product has rushed for 302 yards and three scores; he’s scored in each of his last three games.

Pacheco’s physical running style will provide plenty of pop against this Broncos defense that has missed 34 tackles this season and allowed eight rushing touchdowns in five games. He’s also the clear top back in Kansas City with over 40 more carries than the next man up and will see the bulk of the red-zone touches.

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