Russell Wilson MNF Spotlight: Player Props for MNF Week 1

The Denver Broncos will visit the Seattle Seahawks for the opening Monday Night Football game of the 2022 season, or as some have been calling it, the Russell Wilson “revenge” game.

After 10 seasons in Seattle, Wilson has moved on to the Mile High City. Whether it was because the Emerald City squad wasn’t offering him enough green, or he just needed a change of scenery, Wilson is now favored to go in and beat Pete Carroll and his troops in front of the “12th Man” at Lumen Field. 

Oddsmakers are of course offering a slew of prop plays involving Wilson in this game, and we’ve taken a long look at each of them. Here are our three favorite Russell Wilson prop picks for Monday, September 12. 

Russell Wilson MNF prop picks

• Under 0.5 interceptions
• Over 1.5 passing TDs
• Under 33.5 pass attempts

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Russell Wilson MNF props

No INTs the intelligent play

Even when Russell Wilson was behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, he was always careful with the football. Now that he’s playing with a Broncos O-line ranked 16th by Pro Football Focus entering the year – as opposed to the Seahawks’ 32nd-ranked unit – it will be even easier for him to avoid throwing an interception.

Wilson tossed only six picks in 2021 from 400 attempts, good for a 1.5% interception rate. In nine of his 14 starts last season, Wilson didn’t throw a single INT. 

Seattle was 23rd in the NFL in interceptions last season, picking off the opposing quarterback just 11 times. Four of those 11 picks were recorded by players who are no longer with the team, namely D.J. Reed, Ugo Amadi, and Bobby Wagner.

The odds on this prop may not be all that appealing straight up, but it does look like good value nonetheless. It would also be a terrific addition to any parlay. 

Prop: Under 0.5 interceptions (-165)

Wilson tallies two touchdowns

Wilson was occasionally handcuffed by Carroll’s play-calling with the Seahawks, yet still found a way to be a touchdown-tossing machine. “DangerRuss” threw for at least two touchdowns in six of his final seven games in Seattle last season.

The 2021 campaign was considered a down year for the former third-round selection, but his 6.3% touchdown rate ranked fourth in the NFL among qualified passers. Wilson was second in the same category in 2020 with a 7.2% touchdown rate, trailing only league MVP Aaron Rodgers (9.1%).

The season-ending training camp injury suffered by wide receiver Tim Patrick takes some starch out of the Denver attack, but Wilson should ensure Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy live up to their full potential after a couple of seasons spent lost in the woods with some subpar quarterback play. 

Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon III both serve as pass-catching threats out of the backfield, as the tandem combined for five receiving TDs a year ago.

Prop: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-125)

Russ won't be pass-happy

One might be tempted to think Wilson will air it out early and often to spite Carroll on Monday night, but the smart play is to back the Under in the pass attempts market.

The Seahawks look overmatched on both sides of the ball, as their defense ranked 28th by yards allowed per game last year (379.1), while Denver’s was eighth (326.1). The quarterback competition is anything but fair, with Wilson waging war against Geno Smith, who hasn’t held down a starting job since 2014. 

Smith has an alarmingly-high 3.7% interception rate for his career, so there’s a chance the Broncos' defense helps turn this game into a laugher. If that’s the case, then Wilson can take his foot off the gas pedal and let Williams and Gordon do the work in the second half. 

This wager would be playable down to 31.5 pass attempts. 

Prop: Under 33.5 pass attempts (+100)

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