Best NFL Sack and Tackle Props for Wild Card: Anderson Shines in Texans' Playoff Debut

It's Wild Card weekend in the Super Bowl odds and the hits keep coming, with books wasting no time releasing NFL odds for defensive player props. I dig into the sack and tackle props and bring you my favorite betting plays when it comes to the latest Wild Card odds.

Along with being bullish on rookie pass rusher Will Anderson Jr., I'm fading Alex Highsmith in what should be a run-heavy game in Buffalo, and backing Antoine Winfield to rack up hits on Monday night. Here are my best free sack and tackle NFL picks for Wild Card weekend.

This week’s best sack and tackle props

• Will Anderson Jr. o0.25 sacks (+115 at bet365)
• Alex Highsmith u0.25 sacks (-145 at bet365)
• Rashan Gary o0.25 sacks (+165 at DraftKings)
• Donovan Wilson o3.5 solo tackles (+100 at DraftKings)
• Antoine Winfield o6.5 total tackles (-115 at bet365)

Picks made on January 12 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of our sack picks and our tackle props

Best Wild Card sack picks

Browns vs Texans: Will Anderson Jr.

Joe Flacco has given the Cleveland Browns offense a significant boost since signing with them in late November. However, the 38-year-old quarterback has never been a mobile quarterback, and his tendency to throw the deep ball means he needs time to operate in the pocket. That could make this a prime spot for Houston Texans rookie Will Anderson Jr. to pick up a sack.

The top defensive player in last year's draft, Anderson entered the season with sky-high expectations but got off to a relatively slow start. However, he picked things up during the second half of the season and racked up five sacks in his final six games. The Texans had just one sack when these teams met up three weeks ago but Anderson missed that contest with an ankle sprain, and while he continues to be bothered by that injury, he has been playing through it and producing.

Flacco was also still pressured a whopping 14 times in that game, which was unsurprising given that the Browns lost both starting offensive tackles to season-ending injuries, in addition to Dawand Jones, who had been filling in admirably at RT. Expect Anderson to continue his ascent against a banged-up Browns O-line and bet on him to pick up a sack on Saturday.

Will Anderson Prop: Over 0.25 sacks (+115 at bet365)

Steelers vs Bills: Alex Highsmith

All eyes will be on Alex Highsmith, with All-Pro edge rusher T.J. Watt ruled out for the Pittsburgh Steelers clash against the Buffalo Bills. Unfortunately for Steelers fans, Highsmith hasn't been making a big impact lately being held without a sack in six of his last eight games.

With Watt sidelined by an MCL injury, Highsmith will likely face even more attention from blockers in this one. The Bills allowed a league-low 24 sacks during the regular season and quarterback Josh Allen has been sacked just 1.2 times per game since Week 2.

The weather is far from perfect in Orchard Park, with sustained winds expected to reach over 20 mph and be gusting up to 50 mph. With those extreme conditions, Allen will have fewer pass attempts, and when he does throw, he won't be sitting in the pocket waiting for downfield targets to get open.

Alex Highsmith Prop: Under 0.25 sacks (-145 at bet365)

Packers vs Cowboys: Rashan Gary

Green Bay Packers edge rusher Rashan Gary has been in a slump but I like his chances of snapping out of that on Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys. Gary had nine sacks this season and picked up 15.5 sacks in 25 games over the previous two years, but he's gone his last five games without a single sack.

That said, Gary has been lining up at left outside linebacker, which puts him across from right tackle Terrence Steele — the weakest link in the Dallas offensive line. A whopping 30.5% of the pressure allowed on Dak Prescott this season has come from the RT position, and Steele has posted an ugly 45.9 pass-blocking grade while surrendering eight sacks. 

Prescott wasn't sacked in last week's blowout win against the Commanders, who traded away their best edge rushers midseason, but he had faced 17 sacks in his previous five games. Back Gary to beat Steele and sack Dak on Sunday. 

Rashan Gary Prop: Over 0.25 sacks (+165 at DraftKings)

Best Wild Card tackle picks

Packers vs Cowboys: Donovan Wilson

Cowboys safety Donovan Wilson had a modest three solo tackles in last week's rout of the Commanders. However, he had racked up at least four solo stops in his previous four games, averaging 5.75 solo tackles during that span.

Wilson has the ability to play in the box or cover deep safety, which means that he'll get plenty of tackling opportunities against a Packers offense that prefers to attack vertically. Take the Over on his solo tackles here.

Donovan Wilson Prop: Over 3.5 solo tackles (+100 at DraftKings)

Eagles vs Buccaneers: Antoine Winfield

Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. was one of the biggest Pro Bowl snubs of the year but he's as good as it gets at the position. Winfield was second on the Bucs with 122 tackles and he leads all safeties in the NFL in run defense grade, while ranking third in tackling grade per Pro Football Focus. Winfield is averaging 8.4 tackles per game over his last eight contests and has logged 7+ tackles in six of those games.

The two games during that span where he went below that total came against the Panthers and Jaguars, who both struggled offensively and combined for just 111 plays because they couldn't sustain drives. Winfield should be on the field more against an up-tempo Philadelphia Eagles offense that was seventh in the league with 65.4 plays per game.

Antoine Winfield Jr. Prop: Over 6.5 total tackles (-115 at bet365)

How are sack and tackle props calculated?

It's important to read the wording associated with the sack props at each specific sportsbook. Most books will list an Over/Under number which is set at 0.25 or 0.75, since players can be credited for 0.5 sacks for sharing a sack with a teammate. Other books will mark a sack as a "yes" or "no" proposition in which case half a sack will count as the player recording a sack. 

Books often have props for solo tackles, assists, and tackles which are made up of both solo tackles and assisted.

Best strategies to bet sack and tackle props

There are several factors to consider when handicapping sack totals. The most obvious involves the defensive player himself. How often does he get sacks both in terms of his recent history and also over a larger sample size, and does he consistently generate pressure. A player might have picked up sacks in three consecutive games but if he doesn't consistently beat his blocker, he's likely due for regression. On the other side of things, a player might be held off the sack sheet in four straight games, but if he's constantly pressuring opposing passers, it's only a matter of time before he gets a sack.

Who the defender is matching up against is also an important factor. How well does the projected starter opposite from him perform as a pass blocker and is that opposing player injured or playing out of position? In addition, is the offense able or willing to double-team the defender? Certain quarterbacks also hold on to the ball longer, have less pocket awareness, or don't have the mobility to evade pass rushers.

It's also important to consider how the rest of his team will affect a player's ability to get sacks. Perhaps his defensive coordinator is using him more in coverage, perhaps another defender is poaching his sacks or allowing him to get easier matchups. Improved play in the secondary can also lead to coverage sacks.

Game situation also matters since an offense that throws the ball a lot or is expected to play from behind, will also give a defense more opportunity to get sacks. 

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic