The New Orleans Saints leave the cozy confines of the Superdome for the first time in almost a month when they travel to play the Chicago Bears in the Windy City – a nickname that could hold true for this Week 8 matchup.
Chicago is a 4-point NFL betting underdog playing on a short week following a loss to the L.A. Rams on Monday night. New Orleans came off a bye in Week 6 to knock off divisional foe Carolina at home last Sunday.
These are our NFL free picks and predictions for Saints vs. Bears on November 1.
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears betting preview
Weather
Winds are blowing NW up to 30 mph but those gusts should calm down as this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff plays out, topping out around 20 mph later in the second half. Temperatures will be in the mid-30s. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Saints: Marquez Callaway WR (Out), Nick Easton C (Out), Michael Thomas WR (Out).
Bears: Cody Whitehair C (Out), Allen Robinson WR (Probable), Ted Ginn WR (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 21-8 in Bears’ last 29 games as underdogs. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Bears.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The betting public was eager to see if this Bears team was for real, taking a 5-1 SU record into Monday’s game in Los Angeles. Chicago was dealt a 24-10 defeat and failed to cover as a 6-point road underdog, but there’s no shame in losing to a very good Rams team that needed stellar efforts from all areas – offense, defense and special teams – to edge Chicago.
That’s not to say there aren’t concerns for the Bears, most notably on offense. Quarterback Nick Foles was as inconsistent as ever, throwing two interceptions and failing to pass for a touchdown, but was also under constant pressure and felt the crunch of four sacks. He got little to no support from the ground game (49 yards on 17 carries), which allowed L.A. to tee off with the pass rush and focus on stopping the Chicago air attack.
The Saints are far from perfect too. New Orleans has covered the spread just once in the past five games, including two close finishes against the Chargers and Panthers. Much of the blame is being put on the secondary, which gets let off the hook against a punchless Bears passing game this weekend. New Orleans hasn’t faced a defense this good in 2020 but could exploit a tired Chicago front seven with one of the most dynamic players in the game: RB Alvin Kamara.
The Bears are allowing 4.6 yards per carry to opposing rushers over the past three games and got rolled for 161 yards on 34 rushes versus the Rams earlier this week. If the forecasted wind speed is as strong as it calls for, the Saints could use Kamara even more on hand-offs and short passes.
This spread looks to be trending upwards as of Wednesday morning, with Saints -4 juiced heavily at some sportsbooks. I like the Chicago defense at home in a wild weather game, but I just can’t trust Foles and this bumbling Bears offense. At -4, the Saints are the play, but I don’t think they run away with it.
PREDICTION: New Orleans -4 (-110)
Over/Under pick
This total has plummeted since going up, opening at 47 and dropping to 44 points – in part due to the expected game-time conditions but also Chicago’s rotten egg on offense this past Monday. The possible strong winds will keep the passing games short, and also make field goals a trickier task than normal.
We’ve already called for a double-dose of Kamara from NOLA, but Chicago must find some semblance of a ground game of its own if it wants to support Foles, who is scheduled to get the Week 8 start despite a rally for much-maligned QB Mitchell Trubisky to return under center. The Bears have handed off on less than 35 percent of their snaps this season and without balance, you’re feeding Foles to the wolves.
This is also New Orleans’ first outdoor game of the season, with trips to domed Las Vegas and Detroit, and just the third road stop of the schedule so far. Drew Brees has seen his production dip when playing in outdoor venues, boasting a career QB rating of 91.8 outdoors (compared to 104.8 indoors) with his average yards per attempt dropping to 7.14 outdoors versus 8.07 indoors.
PREDICTION: Under 44 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
Not only does Brees have to battle the breezes in the Windy City but also a potent pass rush from the Bears. New Orleans has some injury concerns on the offensive line that could compound themselves come kickoff.
Given the passing game could have a short leash for Sunday, quick-hitting targets like Kamara and tight end Jared Cook will see plenty of targets. Cook has totaled 84 yards and two touchdowns on just five receptions the past two games.
Chicago has allowed 363 yards (11th most) and four TDs to tight ends this season, including 75 collective yards and a touchdown to L.A.'s TEs last Monday night.
PREDICTION: Jared Cook touchdown scorer (+180)
Saints vs Bears betting card
- New Orleans -4 (-110)
- Under 44 (-110)
- Jared Cook touchdown scorer (+180)
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