The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can clinch their spot in the playoffs with a victory on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints, who will be looking to play spoiler against their NFC South rivals on the road.
My Saints vs. Buccaneers predictions and NFL picks expect rookie running back Bucky Irving to cook against a terrible New Orleans run defense.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, with the game airing on FOX.
Saints vs Buccaneers prediction
Saints vs Buccaneers spread prediction
The Buccaneers have thrived against the spread this season, posting a 10-6-0 record. As a home ATS favorite, they’re also 3-1. The last time Tampa Bay played the Saints, it resulted in a massive 51-27 victory in mid-October, comfortably covering the 14-point spread.
While the Bucs have only covered Sunday’s spread twice in the last five meetings, New Orleans is banged up. Derek Carr is still out, Alvin Kamara is doubtful, and several other starters are hurt and won’t play. Tampa has a lot on the line here and just smashed the Panthers 48-14 last weekend. They will grab another convincing win.
Saints vs Buccaneers moneyline prediction
The moneyline offers essentially zero value for this Week 18 clash, with the Buccaneers sitting as a steep -910 favorite. They’re also 3-1 as a home moneyline favorite. Tampa is 4-1 SU against the Saints in the last five and have only lost once in their previous five games this season. If you do plan to bet moneyline, the Bucs are a no-brainer.
Saints vs Buccaneers total prediction
The Under has actually hit in five of the last six meetings, but there’s reason to believe in the Over on Sunday. The Buccaneers are fourth in the NFL in PPG with 29.7. They’ve scored over 40 in two of their last three. The Saints, meanwhile, are towards the bottom of the league in every major defensive category and barely score any points themselves, with only 19.9 per contest.
I could see Tampa putting up 40+ against and holding the Saints to under 10 points.
My best bet
Bucky Irving Over 87.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Bucky Irving’s rookie campaign has been nothing short of spectacular. The former Oregon Ducks star is killing the competition and has emerged as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers primary back over Rachaad White, averaging 5.5 yards per carry for a total of 1,033 yards and seven touchdowns.
The youngster has one of the best YPC averages of any rookie ever, and he’ll have the chance to ball out again on Sunday. Irving has hit the Over in rushing yards in three of his last five contests, running for 113 in Week 17 against the Panthers.
The 22-year-old had 81 rushing yards last time versus the New Orleans Saints, which perhaps doesn’t solidify this bet as a worthy one. However, his numbers in December make it well worth it.
In those three games where he cashed the Over, Irving surpassed 100+ rushing yards in all of them.
Irving will light up the Saints’ run defense, who rank 30th in the NFL.
Saints vs Buccaneers same-game parlay
Bucky Irving Over 87.5 rushing yards
Baker Mayfield Over 252.5 passing yards
Buccaneers -14
Baker Mayfield is enjoying a fantastic campaign and has truly found a home in Tampa Bay. The quarterback is third in the league in passing yards with 4,279, which includes a 71.7 completion percentage and 39 touchdowns against 15 interceptions.
In fact, Mayfield is also second in TDs behind only Joe Burrow.
The signal-caller has comfortably hit the Over in passing yards in four straight games, throwing for 359, 303, 288, and 295. During that span, he also has 14 touchdowns.
Baker is playing extremely good football right now and threw for 325 yards in October against the Saints. He’ll put together another massive game. After all, New Orleans’ pass defense ranks 27th.
As previously mentioned, the Bucs beat the Saints by 24 points a few months ago. While NOLA is a lot better when they’re main guys are healthy, that’s not the case. Tampa is a good ATS team and have no shortage of motivation here.
They will cover the two-touchdown spread and march into the playoffs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Saints vs Buccaneers odds
Saints vs Buccaneers live odds
Saints vs Buccaneers opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans +14 (-110) | Tampa Bay -14 (-110)
- Moneyline: New Orleans (+600) | Tampa Bay (-900)
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 (-110) | Under 43.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Saints vs Buccaneers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Buccaneers are 10-6-0 ATS, while the Saints are 6-10-0.
- The Under has hit in five of the last six meetings but 72% of Covers Consensus users are backing the Over for Sunday’s contest.
- According to Covers Consensus, 71% of spread picks are laying the points with Tampa Bay, while 70% of total picks are siding with the Over.
Saints vs Buccaneers betting trend to know
The Buccaneers have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.10 Units / 13% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Buccaneers.
Saints vs Buccaneers game info
| Location: | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, 1-5, 2025 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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