A classic NFC South showdown takes center stage for Sunday Night Football in Week 15, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers play host to the reeling New Orleans Saints at the pirate ship.
The Bucs are favored by 11.5 as they aim to win for the fifth straight game. The Saints, on the other hand, have mostly struggled of late outside of Week 14's beatdown against the Jets. The Buccaneers are not the Jets.
Here are our free NFL picks and predictions for Saints at Bucs on December 19.
Saints vs Buccaneers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Tampa Bay opened as an 11.5-point home favorite last Sunday and dipped as low as -10.5 before news on Payton’s absence came out and bumped the spread back to -11.5. The total opened as high as 48 points and sunk to 45.5 points at most books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Saints vs Buccaneers predictions
Predictions made on 12/19/2021 at 7:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Saints vs Buccaneers game info
• Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
• Date: Sunday, December 19, 2021
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC
Saints at Buccaneers betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Saints: Ian Book QB (Out), Kenny Stills WR (Out), Deonte Harris WR (Out), Terron Armstead T (Out), Ryan Ramczyk T (Out), Kaden Elliss LB (Out), Ken Crawley CB (Out)
Buccaneers: Kyle Trask QB (Out), Kenjon Barner RB (Out), Antonio Brown WR (Out), Breshad Perriman WR (Out), Antoine Winfield Jr. S (Out), Richard Sherman CB (Out), Jamel Dean CB (Out)
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings between the Saints and Bucs in Tampa Bay. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Buccaneers.
Saints vs Buccaneers picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Tampa Bay has never been this big a favorite over a Payton-led Saints team (since 2006). And with NOLA’s head coach out due to COVID, leaving defensive coordinator Dennis Allen in charge, perhaps that record still stands. But Payton or no Payton, the Bucs deserve this mountain of chalk.
Tampa Bay has been on a tear after a mid-season wobble of the wheels. After back-to-back losses (one of which came against the Saints in Week 8), the Buccaneers have righted the pirate ship and have been firing (the cannons) on all cylinders during this four-game run.
The offense sits second in EPA per play (+0.165) since Week 11, getting a strong two-pronged attack from both Tom Brady and the passing game, but also a massive push on the ground from RB Leonard Fournette, who is expected to play after missing time this week with an ankle injury.
New Orleans’ once-vaunted run defense has shown cracks the past month, giving up big yardage on the ground to Philadelphia, Buffalo and Dallas and owning an EPA allowed per rush of -0.081 (13th) since Week 11 – a stark contrast to a unit that ranked No. 2 in that advanced metric through the first 10 weeks of action. If Fournette and the Bucs start picking up gains on the ground, that will open up space for Brady to operate versus a secondary that allows the third-highest average depth of target (8.8 yards).
The Saints just don’t have the firepower to go blow for blow with Brady & Co., nor do they have the passing chops with a depleted receiving corps and Taysom Hill under center to play catch-up, should they fall behind early.
Tampa Bay has covered in each of its four games during this winning streak, including bulky spreads of -10.5 and -11. Sunday night’s 11.5-point line will be no different.
Prediction: Tampa Bay -11.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
As mentioned in the odds analysis, this total opened at 48 points and sunk like a stone with early play on the Under. And even at 45.5 points heading into gameday, there is plenty of headroom for the Under.
New Orleans' offense is a one-trick pony, leaning heavily on the rushing attack and short pass game with dual-threat Hill and pass-catching RB Alvin Kamara. That handoff-heavy attack runs into a strong Buccaneers run stop unit that – while it has softened over the last three outings – can sell out on stopping the rush.
At some point Sunday night, NOLA will have no choice but to throw the ball and Tampa Bay will dial up the pressure on Hill, who will once again be without his two starting tackles, Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk.
The Buccaneers blitz more than any team in the league (39.3%) and create pressure on 28% of dropbacks, while collecting 35 sacks and 63 QB hits on the year. Those hurried plays will lead to wayward passes from Hill, who has been pressured on 25% of his limited dropbacks as QB and has seen almost 23% of his pass attempts rank as “poor” throws.
The Bucs are an opportunistic defense, ranking sixth in takeaways with 25 on the year — 15 of those from interceptions. This secondary is also expected to return starting FS Jordan Whitehead, who missed the past two games (calf).
Prediction: Under 45.5 (-110)
Best bet
The Saints offense may be able to get by on scripted plays for the first couple possessions, but once Tampa Bay’s savvy DC Todd Bowles adjusts, NOLA is going to miss Payton dearly. The absent head coach is one of the sharpest offensive minds and a master of making adjustments.
New Orleans has also padded its offensive output with plenty of garbage time points in the past four outings – either winning or losing big in the final frame – scoring 52 of its total 82 points (63%) in the fourth quarter.
Tampa Bay will be extra cautious to finish the fight in Week 15 after allowing the Buffalo Bills to storm back from a 27-10 hole in the fourth quarter of last week’s overtime victory. Before the Bills’ 17-point final frame comeback, the Bucs ranked fifth in fourth-quarter points allowed (5.2).
Pick: Under 45.5 (-110)
