NFL betting in Week 9 is headlined by a matchup between NFC South rivals with Super Bowl aspirations, as the New Orleans Saints face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday night.
New Orleans is coming off an overtime victory over the Bears and has now won four games in a row. But NFL odds have the Saints as 4.5-point underdogs against the 6-2 Bucs, who are fresh off a Monday Night Football win against the Giants
We break down the football odds with our best free Saints vs Buccaneers picks and predictions for Sunday Night Football action on November 8, with kickoff at 8:20 p.m. ET.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview
Weather
The early forecast called for wind and rain but it appears as if Sunday Night Football will miss the wet stuff. There is a 20 percent chance of rain and temperatures in the high 70s with wind gusts blowing up to 20 mph at Raymond James Stadium tonight. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Saints: Sheldon Rankins DT (Out), Justin Hardee CB (Out), Ty Montgomery RB (Out).
Buccaneers: Vita Vea DL (Out), O.J. Howard TE (Out), Justin Evans S (Out), Khalil Davis DL (Out), Ali Marpet G (Out), Khalil Davis DL (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Buccaneers.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
These teams met up in the season opener, and New Orleans came away with a 34-23 victory. Turnovers played a big role in that game, with the Bucs giving the ball away three times, including a Tom Brady interception that was returned for a touchdown.
However, Brady and the Bucs offense have come a long way since then, averaging 32 points per game with a total of five turnovers in the seven games since that defeat. Tampa Bay has also been among the best defensive teams in the league, allowing just 299.5 yards per game and holding opponents to a league-best 3.2 yards per carry.
Even in that season-opening loss, the Bucs limited Saints QB Drew Brees to just 160 yards and contained New Orleans to 82 yards rushing on 34 carries.
Look for Tampa Bay to once again slow down the Saints attack, while their improved offense effectively moves the ball downfield. Take the Bucs to win and cover.
PREDICTION: Tampa Bay -4 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Saints have been making Over bettors very happy this season, going 7-0 O/U, but there's reason to be wary of the Over 51.5 on Sunday night. That number is tied for the second-highest total of the year for both the Saints and Bucs, and both teams are strong on the defensive side of the ball.
Tampa Bay leads the league in defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders, while New Orleans is eighth. However, the biggest reason to like the Under in this game is the messy weather expected for the weekend. Rain usually leads to more conservative gameplans, while the extremely windy conditions could also affect passing.
Don't overlook the impact of weather in this one and take the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 51.5 (-110)
Player Prop
As anyone who has Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones II in fantasy football knows, Tampa Bay's running backs have been completely unreliable on a week-to-week basis.
Fournette was targeted six times in the passing game last week but ended up with just three receptions for 19 yards. That's the fourth time in Fournette's five games this year that he has totaled fewer than 20 yards receiving.
While Fournette is being used in passing situations far more than he was in Jacksonville, he's still not an ideal third-down back, and Brady has plenty of other short options to dump the ball off to, including tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate. Take the Under on Fournette's receiving yards total.
PREDICTION: Leonard Fournette receiving yards Under 24.5 (-120)
Saints vs Buccaneers Betting Card
- Tampa Bay -4 (-110)
- Under 51.5 (-110)
- Leonard Fournette receiving yards Under 24.5 (-120)
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