Saints vs Cardinals Thursday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Ertz Profits From More Targets

Thursday Night Football’s matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals has a pretty low bar for bettors.

The past two Thursday contests produced a grand total of just 40 points and while this Over/Under promises about 45 points, both of these offenses enter Week 7 in flux. 

New Orleans has injuries all over the depth chart with both QBs Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton listed as questionable, and the team’s top two wide receivers are out of action. 

Arizona is also down a top target in Hollywood Brown but does get WR1 Deandre Hopkins back from suspension in Week 7 — hoping to kickstart an attack ranked 26th in DVOA at Football Outsiders.

I dive into the point spread and total for Thursday Night Football and give my best NFL betting picks and predictions for Saints at Cardinals on October 20.

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Saints vs Cardinals picks and predictions

A revolving door at receiver is set up in Arizona, with Hollywood Brown going down with a broken foot — just as the team was getting back star wideout Deandre Hopkins from a six-game suspension. The Cardinals also made a move to bring in disgruntled Carolina WR Robbie Anderson via a trade on Monday.

Quarterback Kyler Murray was already having a tough time in 2022, entering Week 7 with the 23rd-ranked QB EPA per play in the NFL — not where you want your $230.5 million investment. Now his receivers room gets a shakeup, and the play calling could also be undergoing a transition, with head coach Kliff Kingsbury telling reporters he might step away from the play sheet after the team’s poor start.

Murray was relying heavily on Brown through the first six games, targeting his former Oklahoma teammate on 26.3% of throws. That reliance jumped to 29.4% in the past three games. Even with Hopkins taking some of the sting out of that Brown injury, just how much Nuk will be involved in his first game back remains to be seen.

Kingsbury wouldn’t commit to Hopkins’ usage saying that while the receiver is anxious to get going, he could be on a snap count Thursday. “He says not, so we'll see. We'll see how he's going,” Kingsbury told the media. As well, Anderson’s involvement is also up in the air with only two days to learn the new playbook.

With so much uncertainty in the Cardinals’ passing game, expect extra reps for Murray’s “old reliable”. Tight end Zach Ertz was already getting a lot of work in 2022, drawing targets on 22.5% of pass attempts the last three weeks and entering Week 7 as the third most targeted TE in the league (51).

I don’t expect Hopkins to come in and consume Brown’s share of targets in his first game back, which means the leftovers will trickle down to WR Rondale Moore and Ertz, who has drawn 10 or more targets in four of six games this season. He’s had six or more receptions in five straight outings and has posted receiving outputs of 75, 45, 47, 48, and 70 yards — that last figure coming on seven catches vs. Seattle last Sunday.

He’s gone Over his yardage total prop in five straight outings, with books upping his total from 40.5 to 45.5 to 50.5 in the past three games. Ertz’s receiving yard prop total for Thursday night is sitting at 47.5 Over/Under — a number that doesn’t reflect the probable shift in targets for this short-week contest.

The Saints have been stingy against the position in 2022 (allowing only 29.5 yards per game to TEs) but haven’t faced a tight end as active as Ertz (outside of Falcons' overrated TE Kyle Pitts). And with a couple of extra catches, Ertz can easily eclipse expectations that sit just below his season average in yardage.

My best bet: Zach Ertz Over 47.5 receiving yards  (-110)

Saints vs Cardinals spread analysis

The lookahead spread for this primetime game sat at Arizona -3 in the summer, but after the Cardinals’ slow start to 2022 and the Saints battling a laundry list of injuries, the official Week 7 opener looked a little different.

Arizona opened between -2 and -2.5 on Sunday night, with both teams coming off a loss in Week 6. However, NOLA looked much livelier in its defeat to Cincinnati than Arizona did in a 19-9 loss at Seattle. 

With rumors swirling about coach Kliff Kingsbury’s job security in the desert, the public perception of the Cardinals is far sourer than the Saints, who can at least point the finger at injuries for their shortcomings.

The Cardinals have slimmed from -2.5 to as low as -1 as of Tuesday afternoon, despite the missing pieces for the Saints. According to our Covers Consensus, though, 62% of picks are on Arizona. 

Saints vs Cardinals Over/Under analysis

This look-ahead line had an Over/Under of 47 points in the offseason (made with Hopkins returning to a healthy WR corps) and the official Week 7 opener hit the board around 44.5 O/U on Sunday night. Early action bumped that total all the way up to 46 points in the hours following and some respected online operators have stayed higher at 45.5 — even after most markets slimmed this total to 44 points.

Hopkins’ return is a welcome addition for Arizona but how quick can he fix an offense ranked out 24th in EPA per dropback, especially swapping Hopkins in for leading receiver Hollywood Brown, who was having a great debut year in the desert. 

New Orleans' offense has been a strange crew. It continues to produce points in the face of those missing skill players. The Saints have posted scores of 25, 39, and 26 in the past three weeks, owing an EPA per play ranked 10th in the league over that span.

The Cardinals' defense is an aggressive attack, blitzing on almost 35% of dropbacks this season in hopes of bailing out a soft secondary that sits 24th in Pass Defense DVOA at Football Outsiders. The Saints’ stop unit hasn’t played up to expectations the past three games, giving up 28, 32, and 30 points to foes — allowing 0.529 points per play in that span (30th).

New Orleans has gone Over in all three of those games and sits 4-2 O/U on the season while Arizona has played Under in five straight showings, at 1-5 O/U on the year.

Saints vs Cardinals betting trend to know

Arizona is just 9-17-1 SU and 10-17 ATS at home in the Kingsbury-Murray Era (since 2019). That includes a 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS record as a host this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Cardinals.

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