A non-conference clash caps NFL Week 5 wagering when the Kansas City Chiefs host the New Orleans Sains on Monday Night Football.
The total for this primetime contest sits at 43 points, which predicts a low-scoring game between two of the league’s best defenses. But that doesn’t mean we can’t find value in the Saints vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown picks.
I break down the matchups and how they fit into the TD anytime markets, giving my best NFL picks and Saints vs. Chiefs predictions for October 7.
Saints anytime touchdown pick
Juwan Johnson anytime touchdown
+550 at FanDuel
With Taysom Hill out of action in Week 5, Juwan Johnson’s role in the offense gets a boost. He’s coming off a three-catch, 13-yard performance versus Atlanta in which he played 68% of snaps last weekend.
Week 5 player projections are very positive for the 6-foot-4 tight end. Quarterback Derek Carr will likely be looking his way as a checkdown option with Kansas City’s aggressive offense bring a lot of pressure against a banged-up NOLA offensive line.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been beaten up by rival TEs this season, allowing the most yards and receptions to the position along with a touchdown.
Johnson has one red-zone catch on one target inside the 20-yard line, scoring a touchdown in the Week 1 squash of the Carolina Panthers. Player projections have him forecasted for 0.2 touchdowns versus Kansas City.
His TD anytime price sits as short as +330 at some books but you can find him as high as +550 at FanDuel.
Chiefs anytime touchdown pick
Travis Kelce anytime touchdown
+140 at FanDuel
Travis Kelce was catching heat for his slow start to the 2024 season but showed up in Week 4, reeling in seven of nine passes his way for 89 yards in the win over L.A. I believe he builds on that effort and finally cracks the end zone on Monday Night Football.
The Chiefs’ receiving corps is running thin, with Rashee Rice going down with a knee injury. Rice was by far Mahomes’ top target through the first four weeks which means KC needs Kelce to step up against the New Orleans Saints.
While New Orleans is one of the better defenses against the pass in 2024, along with the stingiest red zone stop unit, it has shown a weakness to tight ends as well as allowing yards after the catch. What’s more, NOLA has allowed the seventh most yards to TEs this year.
Making matters worse is a soft second level, with some top-tier linebackers likely out for Week 5. Former Chief LB Willie Gay is out, LB Nephi Sewell is still on IR, and top coverage LB Pete Werner showed up on the injury report this weekend (questionable).
Week 5 player models have Kelce listed as the one tight end most likely to catch a touchdown, with projections ranging from 0.5 to 0.4. And for those who subscribe to the “it’s his birthday” method of handicapping, Kelce celebrated his 35th on Saturday.
Kelce’s TD anytime prices is listed as low as +114 but if you shop you can get Taylor’s guy +140 at FanDuel.
Not intended for use in MA.
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