The New Orleans Saints stumble into Arrowhead Stadium on a two-game skid facing the Kansas City Chiefs and Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes is running thin on options in the passing game, having lost WRs Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown to injury. But we’re talking about No. 15 here.
Mahomes makes everyone around him better, and he’s never more dangerous than when Kansas City is knocking on the door of the end zone.
I size up the spread, total, and player prop odds for Monday Night Football and give my best Saints vs. Chiefs predictions and NFL picks for October 7.
Saints vs Chiefs MNF prediction
My best bet
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 passing TDs (+100 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Most weeks, Patrick Mahomes would be a shoo-in to sling it for two or more touchdowns. However, the state of the Kansas City Chiefs' receivers room, compounded by a stingy Saints defense, has swung the market on Mahomes’ TD passes the other way.
As mentioned, Mahomes is missing his top target in 2024 with Rice going down with a knee injury last Sunday. The Chiefs’ downfield options were already dicey with Brown starting the season on the IR. Add in a slow start for tight end Travis Kelce, and the K.C. passing attack is not what it used to be.
The Chiefs sit middle of the pack in terms of passing production, ranked 17th in EPA per dropback, and are playing a very conservative approach with Mahomes near the bottom in air yards per attempt with six passing touchdowns through the first four weeks.
Mahomes is relying on his targets to pick up yards after the catch, averaging the third-highest YAC (6.6) in the NFL. That could work well versus the New Orleans Saints, who have allowed the fifth-most YAC so far this season and come into Week 5 with a big hole in the second level of the defense.
The Saints will be without former Chief LB Willie Gay as well as strong coverage LB Nephi Sewell (IR) in Week 5. Also possibly sidelined for Monday is top coverage LB Pete Werner, who showed up on the injury report (hamstring) this weekend.
Not only does that set up well for Kelce to have a breakout game, but due to the injury to RB1 Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City is relying on dual-threat running backs Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine going forward. That means more passing options for Mahomes, especially inside the red zone.
Player projections for Week 5 range from 1.4 touchdowns to more than 1.8 for Mahomes and the bulk sit north of the 1.5 TD total. My number is just shy of 1.7 touchdown throws on Monday night, given the bigger spread (Chiefs -5.5) and gaps in the NOLA linebacker corps.
Saints vs Chiefs MNF same-game parlay
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 passing TDs
Travis Kelce anytime TD
Chiefs moneyline
Mahomes puts the Chiefs on his shoulders and slices up the Saints’ second level for some catch-and-run scoring strikes.
Given the injuries at linebacker and Kelce’s emergence after a slow start, I like him to haul down a touchdown in primetime.
The Chiefs could be in for a fight, but I like them to come away with the outright win at home Monday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Saints vs Chiefs odds
Saints vs Chiefs live odds
Saints vs Chiefs opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans +5 | Kansas City -5
- Moneyline: New Orleans +195 | Kansas City -227
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 | Under 43.5
Saints vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis
• Kansas City opened as a 5.5-point home favorite and got to as low as -5 before respected money bought up K.C. below the key number. The line jumped as high as Chiefs -6.5 before buyback on the road underdog knocked this spread back to K.C. -5.5.
• The Over/Under hit the board at 42.5 O/U and has climbed to 43.5 points with money showing on the Over this week.
• Covers Consensus shows 58% of spread picks on New Orleans with 70% of total picks on the Over for Monday Night Football.
Saints vs Chiefs betting trend to know
Monday’s trip to Arrowhead Stadium is the Saints’ first outdoor game this season and just the second time New Orleans has played in an open-air venue in the past 16 games, going back to Week 6 of last season. The Saints have played below the total in 12 straight outdoor games, going back to the 2022 season. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Chiefs.
Saints vs Chiefs game info
| Location: | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Monday, 10-7-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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