The San Francisco 49ers have swapped leading men more than Marvel has flipped the Incredible Hulk’s big-screen actor.
From Jimmy Garoppolo to Trey Lance to Jimmy G again and now Brock Purdy, San Francisco hopes “Mr. Irrelevant” is its Mark Ruffalo. And much like the Hulk’s cinema showings, the Niners have left a path of destruction no matter who was headlining.
Kyle Shanahan’s schemes proved that last season. When the playbook is perfect and the supporting cast is sound, you can have Eric Bana or Edward Norton under center, and it doesn’t matter. San Fran is going to smash — and stand near the top of the Super Bowl odds board.
With Purdy in place as the QB1 after his Cinderella season, expectations are high in the Bay Area. Not only did NFL futures label the 49ers with one of the highest win totals, but NFL odds also have them as point-spread favorites in all but two of their 17 games.
San Francisco has been one of the best bets in the NFL the past two years, going 20-14 ATS in the regular season (59%), including an 11-6 ATS mark in 2022.
Can the 49ers “Hulk Out” and keep the big green coming, or will those profits shrivel to a pair of shredded purple pants? Find out in my 2023 San Francisco 49ers betting preview.
San Francisco 49ers futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +1,000 | +1,000 | +900 |
| Win conference | +400 | +400 | +360 |
| Win division | -160 | -165 | -200 |
| Make playoffs | -450 | -430 | -460 |
| O10.5 wins | -145 | -162 | -160 |
| U10.5 wins | +125 | +132 | +140 |
Best futures bet: Win NFC West (-160)
Losing the starting quarterback would be the death kneel for most franchises, but San Francisco’s system has a built-in failsafe if the QB goes down.
If Brock Purdy gets hurt or turns into a pumpkin, Sam Darnold is a plug-and-play option for Shanahan, and the world keeps on spinning.
That offensive adaptation and one of the best defenses in the league is more than enough to win the NFC West in a down year for this once formidable group.
Arizona will be the worst team in the league, L.A. is a Matt Stafford ache away from disaster, and Seattle’s season projections have it parked firmly at nine wins — not enough to dethrone the Niners.
This market is as high as -200 at some sportsbooks, but -160 seems like a gift from the football betting gods.
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San Francisco 49ers betting overview
What will win bets: Defense
Preseason polls have the 49ers stop unit among the elite, sitting No. 1 in many rankings. All but two starters are back from the 2022 core that led the league in EPA allowed per play and suffocated teams for just 17.2 points a game.
San Francisco filled that space in the starting 11 with the addition of Pro Bowl DT Javon Hargrave, which adds even more fangs to this nasty front. Hargrave, who finished with 11 sacks for Philadelphia in 2022, joins pass-rush god Nick Bosa and run-stuffer Arik Armstead on the line. The front seven rounds out with one of the best linebacker corps in the NFL, headlined by Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner.
The loss of defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans is a bit of a hit but San Francisco grabbed Steve Wilks off an interim stint in Carolina, where his “player-friendly” approach and high energy rallied the Panthers to become one of the best bets down the stretch.
What will lose bets: Quarterback questions
The 49ers felt so good about Brock Purdy’s place atop the depth chart that they sent last year’s Week 1 QB Trey Lance to Dallas just before the season.
Purdy was a “feel good” story in 2022, stepping in as the third stringer and leading the Niners to the NFC title game before having his arm ripped off in the loss to the Eagles. Purdy has been protected this preseason as he rehabs from the elbow injury and there are questions about his health and validity.
Sam Darnold is the No. 2. He missed the start of 2022 but came on like a firecracker for Carolina down the stretch. Darnold started the final six games for a poor Panthers team and led them to a 4-2 SU mark, ranking among the passing elite in EPA and CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expectation) in that short stint.
Again, though, questions arise about the validity of those results and Darnold’s overall record as a starting QB. While Kyle Shanahan has been able to produce regular season results without a true No. 1 passer, that position has held San Francisco back. It may be the same story in 2023.
San Francisco 49ers 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @  Pittsburgh Steelers |
-2.5 |
| 2 | @  Los Angeles Rams |
-4.5 |
| 3 | vs  New York Giants |
-6 |
| 4 | vs  Arizona Cardinals |
-10.5 |
| 5 | vs  Dallas Cowboys |
-2.5 |
| 6 | @  Cleveland Browns |
-1 |
| 7 | @  Minnesota Vikings |
-2.5 |
| 8 | vs  Cincinnati Bengals |
-1 |
| 9 | BYE | |
| 10 | @  Jacksonville Jaguars |
-1 |
| 11 | vs  Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
-7.5 |
| 12 | @  Seattle Seahawks |
-1.5 |
| 13 | @  Philadelphia Eagles |
+2.5 |
| 14 | vs Seattle Seahawks |
-4 |
| 15 | @ Arizona Cardinals |
-6.5 |
| 16 | vs  Baltimore Ravens |
-3 |
| 17 | @  Washington Commanders |
-3.5 |
| 18 | vs Los Angeles Rams |
-7 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
The 49ers have a win total bouncing between 10.5 and 11 and the look-ahead lines set San Fran as a favorite in 15 of 17 games in 2023 — including eight spreads of -3.5 or higher. The strength of schedule says 15th, but with the Rams and Cardinals expected to rank among the league’s lowest lifeforms, this calendar could be a lot easier.
My NFL power ratings place the Niners third overall (76.47/100), behind only Philadelphia and Kansas City in the league’s pecking order. There’s not just a notable gap between the 49ers and the next NFC contender (Dallas at 64.37/100) but the rest of the NFC West. Seattle is way down the board at 16th (52.31/100).
San Francisco opens 2023 at Pittsburgh in a fun non-conference clash, with the 49ers laying -2.5 on the road. My rating has the visitors projected as 4-point favorites, but this will be a very good test of Purdy’s production against a sound Steelers defense.
From there, the early schedule lightens and sets up San Francisco for a strong start. The 49ers play a default “home” game in L.A. against the Rams (Shanahan is 9-3 SU and ATS vs. Sean McVay’s team) in Week 2 before three straight contests in Levi’s Stadium. That stretch concludes with a Week 5 Sunday night showdown with the rival Cowboys (-3).
The 49ers get a bye in Week 9 before a road-centric schedule down the stretch. San Francisco is a visitor in five of its final nine outings, including a road rematch of the NFC Championship with the Eagles in Week 13 — one of just two games in which the 49ers are getting points. Shanahan’s team is 26-18 ATS (59%) as an underdog since he took over as head coach in 2017.
The Niners have an average Over/Under total of just past 42 points in 2023, reflecting this stingy stop unit but also an efficient offense that runs plenty of pre-snap motion and plays one of the slower paces in the NFL.
San Francisco gets RB Christian McCaffrey for a full season and has a bevy of short pass options with WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, TE George Kittle, and Run CMC just as potent as a pass catcher. The only limitation of this offense is Purdy’s enigmatic elbow.
San Francisco 49ers schedule spot bet
Week 11: vs Buccaneers
With the 49ers and Buccaneers polar opposites in my NFL power ratings, it’s no surprise to see a beefy point spread for this Week 11 encounter.
Look-ahead lines have the Niners laying -9 while my ratings are extra ambitious with San Fran forecast as a 17-point home chalk. Given the state of these two teams heading into this November 19 matchup, this spread could very well get there. However, that pile of points may be tough to climb even for the mighty 49ers given the situational angles at work.
San Francisco gets Tampa Bay in a tough spot, running the risk of a letdown after being a 1-point pup in Jacksonville the game before and looking ahead to a short week Thanksgiving Thursday game at Seattle in Week 12. Beyond that, the Niners travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles in Week 13.
The 49ers could blast the Bucs early on and coast the rest of the way, resting starters in the second half and leaving the backdoor open for the chunky underdog.
Shanahan’s team hasn’t been a great bet as a big favorite during his time by the bay. San Francisco is 15-6 SU when laying six or more points but has gone just 8-12-1 ATS (40.5%) in those one-sided games. That said, they were 4-3 ATS in those spots in 2022.
Star power: Christian McCaffrey props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | +8,000 | +15,000 | +8,000 |
| OPOY | +1,500 | +1,400 | +1,100 |
| Rush yards leader | +3,500 | +3,000 | +2,500 |
| Rush TD leader | +2,500 | +2,500 | +2,000 |
| Receptions leader | +4,000 | +6,000 | OTB |
| O6.5 rush TD | -105* | -130 | -130 |
| U6.5 rush TD | -115* | +102 | +100 |
| Rush yards total | 900.5 | 850.5 | 875.5 |
*Rush TD Over/Under is 7.5 at DraftKings
Best prop: Offensive player of the year (+1,500)
While the value of running backs plummets like Blockbuster stock in the 2010s, McCaffrey’s star continues to rise this preseason.
Many 2023 polls have him atop the RB rankings, and the Offensive Player of the Year futures list the dynamic dual-threat talent among the frontrunners to earn that honor in 2023.
McCaffrey arrived in San Francisco via an October trade from Carolina, gifting Shanahan the perfect weapon for his shifty system: A running back who could plow the road with his legs and exploit coverage mismatches with his hands.
McCaffrey turned in eight rushing touchdowns and five receiving TDs in his 14 total games in red and gold. Now imagine giving Shanahan an entire offseason in the lab to cook up schemes for Run CMC.
Player projections for McCaffrey give a consensus of 951 rushing yards, 582 receiving yards, and a grand total of 11 touchdowns overall — a number I feel is low considering how instant an option he was the second he joined the roster.
Injury concerns are always there when it comes to season-long props, especially with McCaffrey missing significant time in recent seasons. But he’s got one of the best offensive lines in the way and a playbook that sets him up to succeed, instead of asking him to do everything.
San Francisco 49ers betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
Brandon Aiyuk might seem like the No. 3 or No. 4 passing option in the 49ers’ offense, but those investing in the 25-year-old this season might be surprised by his year-end numbers. THE BLITZ projects Aiyuk for 944 receiving yards, Mike Clay has him at 851 yards, Yahoo is at a lofty 1,147 yards, RotoWire is at 974 yards, and Fantasy Pros sits at 900 yards.
With a season receiving yard total of 775.5 yards at DraftKings, there is a lot to like about Aiyuk's Over. While he may not be targeted like a No. 1 receiver in some games, his solid YAC numbers can make up for that. The former first-round pick is the perfect receiver to target for season-long Overs and his ceiling is so high that Over 775.5 yards could cash quickly if the likes of Deebo Samuel or George Kittle get injured again.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
Perhaps one player who doesn’t get his due on this 49ers roster full of elite talent is Brandon Aiyuk. The receiver is entering his fourth season and has seen an increase in production in each of his first three seasons with his receiving yards going from 748 to 826 to 1,015. With that continued improvement in mind, I think the Over on Aiyuk’s season-long receiving yard total of 775.5 (-120 at DraftKings) is a serious bargain.
There’s no reason to think Aiyuk and Brock Purdy won’t build upon the chemistry they had together in 2022. In their final six regular season games together, Aiyuk averaged 60.5 receiving yards per game. It doesn’t seem very special, but over a 17-game regular season, that average would work out to a total of 1,028.5 yards. Oddsmakers are sleeping on this talented receiver and more bargains might be available in his individual game Over/Under receiving totals.
San Francisco 49ers trend to know
Kyle Shanahan’s starts to the season have mirrored his finishes: disappointing. Much like the Niners failing to get over the postseason hump, they’ve also stumbled out of the blocks.
Since taking over as head coach in 2017, Shanahan is 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in Week 1 openers. What’s more, the Niners are 1-5 Over/Under in those openers as well.
Last season, San Francisco was stunned 19-10 as a 6.5-point road favorite at Chicago, which played well Under the closing total of 38.5 points. This year, the Steelers welcome the 49ers to Pittsburgh as 2.5-point road chalk for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff in Week 1. That total is 40.5 points.
49ers opening game
- Week 1 @ Steelers (O/U 40.5)
