The NFL Week 4 finale is a coast-to-coast contest with the Seattle Seahawks crossing the country to clash with the New York Giants on Monday Night Football.
New York has enjoyed a mini-bye before this prime-time homestand after getting rolled in San Francisco two Thursdays ago. The Giants return to the scene of the crime, as they were squashed 40-0 by Dallas in Week 1, aka the last time they played inside MetLife Stadium.
Seattle has recovered from its opening stumble against the Rams, winning its past two outings ahead of tonight's matchup, where the NFL odds have them as -2.5 road favorites. The Seahawks aren’t having any trouble finding the end zone, with 30-plus points in the past two outings, and face a New York team giving up the third-most scores through three weeks.
I size up the MNF odds for tonight and give my best free NFL picks and predictions for the Seahawks at the Giants on October 2.
Additionally, take a look at the rest of Covers' coverage for Monday Night Football with a spotlight on Daniel Jones odds and picks and MNF player prop picks.
Seahawks vs Giants odds
Seahawks vs Giants predictions
If you read my weekly NFL Underdogs column, you'll see that I grabbed the points with the Seahawks when they were slight underdogs early in the week. And if you check out my “Bet Now, Bet Later” feature on Sunday nights, you’ll see I quickly took the Over 44.5 on this total, which has surged a full field goal to 47.5.
Considering that narrative, I’m projecting positive plays for the visitor on Monday night. That leads me to Seattle WR Tyler Lockett, who has a receiving yards total of 52.5 yards (Over -114) against the Giants. This is a drop from his receiving yard totals of 55.5 O/U in each of the past three weeks, reflecting a slower start for Lockett in 2023.
He managed just two catches on 10 targets for 10 yards in a weird Week 1 game against the Rams, in which the Seattle offense just couldn’t connect. Week 2 was much better against Detroit, with Lockett hauling in eight of 10 passes his way for 59 yards. He finished with three receptions on seven targets in Week 3, amassing only 34 yards.
Why be so optimistic about his yardage in Week 4? For one, this Giants defense is dog doo. New York is especially poopy against the pass, sitting 30th in EPA allowed per dropback and allowing a 49.1% success rate to rival air attacks. Those numbers could be a lot worse too, considering Dallas and San Francisco went run-heavy with big leads in Week 1 and Week 3.
His Week 4 player projections all sit above his total of 52.5 receiving yards, with a ceiling of more than 64 yards and my consensus number coming out to 60.3 yards. I believe there’s an even higher ceiling for Lockett if quarterback Geno Smith is allotted time for bigger plays to develop downfield.
Injuries to the offensive line have been magnified the past two games against solid pass rushes from Carolina and Detroit, who have Smith facing the third-highest pressure rate among starting QBs in 2023. That’s forced him to look for shorter targets, leaving Seattle with just 6.6 intended air yards per attempt — fourth lowest average in the NFL. This is much lower than 2022, when Smith ranked No. 9 in total intended air yards on the season.
The Seahawks won’t face that same pressure in Week 4. New York’s pass rush has been toothless, with a 16.7% pressure rate that sits tied for third-lowest in the land. On top of that, Seattle is hoping to get bodies back on the O-line, with center Evan Brown trending in that direction.
Lockett had a good day against this defense last October, snatching six of eight passes for 63 yards and a touchdown, and was a bad drop away from more yards and another TD in the third quarter of that 27-13 win at home.
I like him to lead the charge in what should be an exciting finale to Week 4.
My best bet: Tyler Lockett Over 52.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Seahawks vs Giants same-game parlay
Seattle Moneyline
Tyler Lockett Over 52.5 Receiving Yards
Geno Smith Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
I bet Seattle as an underdog early in the week and even with the flip in odds, my ratings believe the Seahawks are the right side.
The Seahawks haven’t hit home runs due to Geno being under fire. He’ll have time to do so with Lockett against the passive G-Men pass rush.
Smith will connect for at least two touchdowns against a Giants defense ranked among the worst at slowing down the pass.
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Seahawks vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
The offseason look-ahead lines had New York as a 1-point home favorite for this Week 4 encounter, but those early odds quickly adjusted, sitting at Seattle -1 before Week 3.
After the Giants’ 30-12 loss to the 49ers on Thursday Night Football, Seattle would add a 37-27 win over Carolina that following Sunday. The official Week 4 spread opened with New York as big as a 2-point home underdog, but the market consensus settled in around Giants -1 most of the week.
The Seahawks, however, received positive injury reports around many banged-up players and the spread jumped the fence to Seattle -1 and got as high as -2 this weekend. As of Sunday morning, you can find this line from Seattle -1 to -2.
My NFL power ratings are strongly leaning to Seattle in this game, and Covers Consensus is showing 62% of picks on the visitor as of Sunday morning. According to BetMGM books, 75% of ticket count and 58% of money is backing Seattle as well.
The Seahawks were hampered by ailments the past two games, missing key starters on both sides of the football. With the Week 4 date set for Monday, Seattle does get an extra day to heal those injuries and should at least see a boost in the secondary with bodies in pass defense coming back.
The defense needs all the help it can get. While the Seahawks' offense has sprung to life the past two outings, the stop unit remains an issue. Seattle sits 26th in EPA allowed per play with soft spots on third down defense and inside the red zone, where the Seahawks have failed to deny opponents a touchdown in seven stands inside their own 20-yard line.
Luckily for Seattle, the Giants offense doesn’t pose much of a threat — especially with star RB Saquon Barkley still sidelined with an ankle injury (doubtful). New York is 27th in EPA per play and is a second-half comeback away in Arizona away from being 0-3 SU and ATS.
The G-Men did face two elite defenses in Dallas and San Francisco and were able to rally against the Cardinals in Week 2, fighting back from a 20-0 first-half hole to win outright 31-28. One problem is the lack of explosive plays — or even the threat of them. New York ranks among the worst offenses in yards per play and has only four passing plays of 25 yards or more through three games.
The Over/Under total has been the real story of the Monday Night Football odds. This total opened as low as 44.5 last Sunday night and quickly took Over money, with bettors banking on two shaky stop units.
This number was bet up to 46.5 points by Monday afternoon and is sitting as high as 47.5 points on Sunday morning — a field-goal jump in the Over/Under.
The Giants, who run one of the slower tempos in the NFL in terms of seconds per play (second slowest), are 1-2 Over/Under so far in 2023.
The Seahawks are middle of the pack in pace but boast the No. 4 EPA per play in the land. That efficiency on offense along with a porous defense has helped top the total the past two games.
These clubs played each other in October of last season, with Seattle winning 27-13 and that final score finishing below the closing total of 44.5 points. It was an ugly game with multiple turnovers from both sides.
Seahawks vs Giants betting trend to know
The Seahawks are 7-2 Over/Under on the road going back to last season. Find more NFL betting trends for Seahawks vs. Giants.
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Seahawks vs Giants game info
| Location: | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Date: | Monday, October 2, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN, ABC |
| Opening odds: | Giants +2, 44.5 O/U |
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Seahawks vs Giants weather
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