The second of two Monday Night Football meetings kicks off in Motown, with the Detroit Lions hosting the Seattle Seahawks in the Week 4 finale.
Both defense have bodies missing, which could open things up for offense and perhaps value in the touchdown anytime betting odds.
I run down the matchups and anytime TD market, giving my best Seahawks vs. Lions predictions and NFL picks for September 30.
Seattle Seahawks anytime touchdown pick
My best bet:
Tyler Lockett anytime TD (+250 at FanDuel)
My analysis:
Tyler Lockett loves the fast track of Ford Field. The last time he was in Detroit, he snagged eight balls for 59 yards and two touchdowns in Week 2 last season.
So far in 2024, the veteran WR has stepped backward into a third option for QB Geno Smith. But despite playing only 56% of snaps in Week 3, Lockett caught five of a team-high eight passes his way in a blowout of Miami.
The Detroit Lions rank in the bottom third of the league in passing defense and have allowed some big plays through three games this season, including two passing strikes of 40-plus yards.
Lockett is a speedy home-run hitter who loves to blow away man-to-man coverage, ranked 12th at PFF among all WRs versus that defensive scheme. Detroit is among the more man-heavy stop units in the league, running man at the fourth highest rate, and rookie CB Terrion Arnold will draw Lockett in coverage.
If the Seattle Seahawks can give Smith time in the pocket, he’ll flex his big arm. Geno also loves playing indoors, with his career splits all getting a boost under the dome.
Detroit Lions anytime touchdown pick
My best bet:
Sam LaPorta anytime TD (+210 at FanDuel)
My analysis:
I bet on Sam LaPorta to find the endzone last week and injuries had the Lions’ tight end coming in and out of action. He finished with just two catches on two targets, took part in only 63% of snaps in the win over Arizona, and was limited in practice this week with a bum ankle.
LaPorta came off the injury report late in the week and the extra day off has him spry against a Seattle scheme soft in the middle. The Seahawks are missing pieces in the front seven, including two of the four starting linebackers, and possibly another with Jerome Baker questionable.
That gives LaPorta favorable matchups in coverage. Seattle is running a good balance of man and zone coverage on defense under new head coach Mike Macdonald, but that could change with the injuries up front. If we see more zone from Seattle, LaPorta could feast finding space underneath.
Even with those injured bodies in, the Seahawks were giving up gains to rival tight ends through three weeks. They’re sixth in total yards allowed to the position, despite allowing 17 receptions to TEs — an average of more than 10 yards per catch.
Most player projections have LaPorta forecasted between 0.3 and 0.35 touchdowns in Week 4 but one model has him at 0.4 (highest TD probability among TEs). Given that, the +210 is a good price considering the Seahawks' dire defensive situation.
Not intended for use in MA.
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