Seahawks vs Rams Week 15 Prop Bets: L.A. Passing Attack Crushes Seattle

NFL action continues for a fourth straight day Tuesday, as the Seattle Seahawks travel to SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams have gotten healthier with the extra rest and now sit as 7-point favorites ahead of the contest. 

We’re betting on this Rams defense to win battles against a Seattle team that hasn’t posted more than 330 yards of offense (outside of the Houston game) and will be without Tyler Lockett. We're also putting some money down on L.A.'s passing attack in our NFL prop picks for Seahawks vs. Rams. 

Seahawks vs Rams prop picks

• Stafford Over 36.5 passing attempts
• Kupp Over 100.5 receiving yards
• Metcalf Under 75.5 receiving yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Seahawks vs Rams Week 15 props

Stafford infection

The Seahawks are on a two-game winning streak but it hasn’t been impressive. They covered in Week 14 versus Houston but it took 14 fourth quarter points from the Seahawks to do so. Houston quarterback Davis Mills finished with a career-high 331 yards on 49 passes while the Texans finished with 25 first downs despite going 3 for 13 on third down. 

The Seahawks are the second-worst defensive team on first and second down by success rate and EPA/play, only better than the Jets. In the first meeting this year, Matthew Stafford finished with a season-high 365 passing yards on 25 of 37 passing. The Rams put up 7.2 yards per play against this Seattle defense, which will be without starting corner D.J. Reed this time around. Situational pass rusher Kerry Hyder will also be on the shelf, which should hopefully give Stafford more pocket time against a defense that creates pressure at a Bottom-10 rate.

Stafford will also have all his weapons on Tuesday night, as Odell Beckham has been activated off the COVID list while running back Darrell Henderson is also active. The Seahawks are much better versus the run than the pass, where they own the No. 28 DVOA pass defense per Football Outsiders.  

Stafford has averaged 8.3 yards per pass over the last three weeks, and that includes two Top 15 defenses in EPA/play. We’re loading up on Stafford with some extra rest against a team he's already proven to have success against.

Looking at Stafford’s markets, his pass attempt prop looks like our favorite bet. The Seahawks allow the second-most pass attempts per game at 39.8 and saw Mills move the ball and throw the ball 49 times in their previous game. Stafford finished with 37 passes in the last meeting but going 2 for 10 on third down didn’t help increase his pass total. Stafford is averaging over 38 passes per game at home and Sean McVay isn’t one to shut down the passing game if his team gets up early. 

PICK: Matthew Stafford Over 36.6 passing attempts (-110 at PointsBet)

Kupp in arms

The league’s MVP race has opened up after Tom Brady’s performance vs. the Saints on Sunday. Perhaps one name that is not getting enough attention in the MVP talks is Rams receiver Cooper Kupp. The sure-handed pass catcher sits at 150/1 to capture the league’s most valuable player award, as he leads all receivers in receptions (113), yards (1,489), and receiving touchdowns (12). This team would be in a lot of trouble this season if it weren’t for the best receiver in football.

Kupp had seven catches for 92 yards against the Seahawks back in Week 5, while now absent WR Robert Woods finished with 12 catches for 150 yards. Since that game back on October 7, Kupp hasn’t been held to under 90 yards and is averaging an insane 117 receiving yards per game, and has tallied seven TDs. 

No. 1 Seattle starting cornerback D.J. Reed is also likely out after being placed on the COVID list on Sunday. The loss leaves Sidney Jones (ranks 59th in coverage, per Pro Football Focus), Ugo Amadi (ranks as the fourth-worst coverage CB), and Blessaun Austin (six receptions allowed on six targets this season) as the team’s healthiest corners with Tre Brown already out injured. 

Kupp could be running circles around this CB group Tuesday and should be the focal point of the offense yet again as the Seahawks are a tough team to run against. The Rams receiver does everything as he sits second in air yards, second in yards after catch, and second in yards after contact. He also leads the league in target share at 32%. 

PICK: Cooper Kupp Over 100.5 receiving yards (-115 at PointsBet)

Down on DK 

With Tyler Lockett being ruled out, DK Metcalf’s role should be expanding Tuesday night but there are quite a few factors that could be working against the hulking receiver.

The first issue is his form. Since Russell Wilson returned five games ago, Metcalf has totaled just 173 yards receiving and hasn’t topped 61 yards in any of those five games. Those five games included four Bottom 15 pass defenses. The Rams entered Week 15 as the No. 7 pass defense in DVOA.

Secondly, he’ll have to face Jalen Ramsey on the outside after the corner tested negative for COVID. Ramsey and Metcalf’s relationship is quite decorated and the corner will want to win this week’s battle after Metcalf won it in Week 5. Ramsey held Metcalf to 87 yards over two games last season.

Finally, Metcalf has missed a ton of practice this year as it’s uncommon for the third-year receiver to even practice during the week. He was listed with foot and back issues but was taken off the injury report as per usual. However, with his recent numbers, one could easily speculate that there could be a correlation between the two things.

Metcalf’s receiving total is just 75.5 yards, which many may think will be an easy number with Lockett out but with his recent form and matchup versus a now-healthy Rams team, we’re hitting the Under. With few weapons on the offense, L.A. could game plan specifically for Metcalf. This total could trend upwards right up to kickoff and the best number for the Under is likely closer to 7 p.m., as it opened at 70.5 but hit 75.5 immediately afterward.

PICK: DK Metcalf Under 75.5 receiving yards (-115 at PointsBet)

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