Monday Night Football brings the Week 12 NFL Thanksgiving slate to a close when the Washington Football Team welcomes the Seattle Seahawks to the nation’s capital.
The game looks like it will be a tight one, with the spread bouncing back and forth all week. If you’re not sure which side you like, luckily primetime games are packed with NFL betting props.
We run down the menu of alternative odds and Monday Night Football props and give our favorite free picks for Seattle at Washington on November 29.
Seahawks vs Washington prop picks
- McKissic Over 27.5 receiving yards (-105)
- First-quarter Under 9.5 points (-105)
- Metcalf longest reception Over 22.5 yards (-115)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Seahawks vs Washington MNF props
Jump back! Wanna McKissic Myself!
Washington enters Week 13 with both running backs nursing ailments. Antonio Gibson is dealing with a stress fracture in his shin and J.D. McKissic is playing through a sore ankle, but both are expected to start versus Seattle.
Gibson has had issues fumbling the football with a league-worst five follies on the year. Should Ron Rivera’s confidence waver, we could see McKissic on the field more frequently. He’s been a big weapon in the short passing game, reeling in 48 balls for 371 total yards receiving this season, and now faces a Seahawks defense that allows a league-high 68.5 receiving yards per game to rival running backs.
McKissic has been targeted 30 times for 25 catches in the past five outings for an average of more than 44 yards in that span, and faces one of his former teams with a receiving yards total as low as 27.5 yards at Bet365 sportsbooks.
The Seahawks haven’t checked a running back to less than 28 yards through the air in each of the past five games, with those dual-threat RBs putting up at least 37 yards receiving.
PICK: J.D. McKissic Over 27.5 receiving yards (-105 at Bet365)
Slow Show
When it comes to offense, Seattle and Washington treat the first quarter like going for a swim in the ocean: slow and cautious.
Over the past three weeks, these playbooks have slowly dipped their toe, pumping out a grand total of only 13 combined points in the opening frame and rank No. 18 and No. 20, respectively, in first-quarter Offense DVOA on the season.
Washington’s attack scores an average of 2.5 points per 1Q with QB Taylor Heinicke also needing at least 15 minutes to warm up. He owns a passer rating of 95.0 in the first frame and has thrown for just 427 total yards on 55 attempts, as Rivera looks to establish the run early on.
As for the Seahawks, their stop unit has had to set the tone in the first 15 minutes and has given up an average of less than a field goal per first quarter on the year. Since Week 6, when this defense really stepped up with Russell Wilson injured, the Seahawks own a 1Q EPA allowed per play of -0.111 – seventh lowest in the NFL.
PICK: First-quarter Under 9.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
Half-calf Metcalf
Seattle stud WR DK Metcalf and QB Russell Wilson haven’t been on the same wavelength since the quarterback’s return two games ago. The burly Metcalf has been targeted 16 times in that span but has reeled in only seven of those passes for a mere total of 57 yards.
A foot injury has slowed Metcalf in the second half of the schedule, but a matchup with a passive Washington pass defense could be the opportunity the Seahawks air attack is looking for. Washington ranks second-worst in air yards allowed and gives up an average depth of target of 8.4 yards (ninth most). The Football Team also sits 23rd in DVOA defending WR1s.
Metcalf has seen his receptions top out at 18 yards the past three games but is always a threat to break off home run plays. Given his recent struggles, his longest reception prop for Week 12 sits as low as 22.5 yards at FanDuel.
We expect Wilson to try and get Metcalf going early with plenty of targets. With the Seahawks rushing roster in shambles, Russ will be throwing a lot versus this suspect WFT secondary, so it shouldn’t take too long for DK to break off a big one.
PICK: DK Metcalf longest reception Over 22.5 yards (-115 at FanDuel)
