The NFL regular season kicks off tonight (!!!), so we've gotta ask:
Are you ready for some football?
A lot has changed during the offseason, including the home addresses of Aaron Rodgers, DeAndre Hopkins, and Jalen Ramsey (to name a few), so to get you up to speed with all the player movements, draft picks, coaching changes and more leading up to Week 1, Jason Logan will preview all 32 NFL teams — including NFL odds, key matchups, and Super Bowl 2024 futures — with comprehensive breakdowns from Jason Logan AND insights from some of Covers' other biggest NFL brains!
Check out the full slate of team previews below — including Super Bowl odds, futures bets, and best player props!
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2023 NFL season previews
All odds courtesy of DraftKings.
AFC East
| Team | Super Bowl odds | Season preview |
|---|---|---|
 Buffalo Bills |
+900 | Read here! |
 New York Jets |
+1,800 | Read here! |
 Miami Dolphins |
+2,500 | Read here! |
 New England Patriots |
+6,500 | Read here! |
AFC North
| Team | Super Bowl odds | Season preview |
|---|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bengals |
+1,100 | Read here! |
 Baltimore Ravens |
+2,000 | Read here! |
 Cleveland Browns |
+4,000 | Read here! |
 Pittsburgh Steelers |
+5,000 | Read here! |
AFC South
| Team | Super Bowl odds | Season preview |
|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville Jaguars |
+2,500 | Read here! |
 Tennessee Titans |
+8,000 | Read here! |
 Indianapolis Colts |
+10,000 | Read here! |
 Houston Texans |
+20,000 | Read here! |
AFC West
| Team | Super Bowl odds | Season preview |
|---|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs |
+600 | Read here! |
 Los Angeles Chargers |
+2,500 | Read here! |
 Denver Broncos |
+4,000 | Read here! |
 Las Vegas Raiders |
+6,500 | Read here! |
NFC East
| Team | Super Bowl odds | Season preview |
|---|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles |
+650 | Read here! |
 Dallas Cowboys |
+1,400 | Read here! |
 Washington Commanders |
+6,500 | Read here! |
 New York Giants |
+6,500 | Read here! |
NFC North
| Team | Super Bowl odds | Season preview |
|---|---|---|
 Detroit Lions |
+2,200 | Read here! |
 Minnesota Vikings |
+3,500 | Read here! |
 Chicago Bears |
+5,000 | Read here! |
 Green Bay Packers |
+6,500 | Read here! |
NFC South
| Team | Super Bowl odds | Season preview |
|---|---|---|
 New Orleans Saints |
+4,000 | Read here! |
 Atlanta Falcons |
+6,000 | Read here! |
 Carolina Panthers |
+7,000 | Read here! |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
+8,000 | Read here! |
NFC West
| Team | Super Bowl odds | Season preview |
|---|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers |
+1,000 | Read here! |
 Seattle Seahawks |
+3,000 | Read here! |
 Los Angeles Rams |
+6,500 | Read here! |
 Arizona Cardinals |
+20,000 | Read here! |
Preseason NFL power ratings
The first step in handicapping NFL spreads is to measure the actual odds against your projections.
Some folks spit out an estimated spread in their head within a matter of seconds. Others rely on complex models to crunch all the analytics, simulate the season thousands of times, and carefully weigh each and every factor.
Truth be told, in the end, those estimates often come out very similar to each other.
I’m throwing my hat in the NFL power ratings ring for the 2023 season, creating a football hierarchy to help shape spreads and compare against the market.
This is by no means a complex system, deriving each team’s rating (out of 100) based on game-to-game spreads, season win totals, strength of schedule and situational spots, and a dash of good ole gut feel.
| Team | Rating | Spread value | Home field value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs |
80.88 | 21.84 | 2.25 |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
79.41 | 21.44 | 2.50 |
| San Francisco 49ers |
76.47 | 20.64 | 2.50 |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
75.00 | 20.25 | 1.75 |
| Buffalo Bills |
70.59 | 19.06 | 2.50 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
67.64 | 18.26 | 1.50 |
| Los Angeles Chargers |
66.18 | 17.86 | 1.50 |
| Baltimore Ravens |
64.70 | 17.47 | 1.50 |
| Dallas Cowboys |
63.23 | 17.07 | 2.00 |
| Detroit Lions |
63.23 | 17.07 | 2.00 |
| New Orleans Saints |
60.29 | 16.28 | 1.75 |
| New York Jets |
59.02 | 15.94 | 2.00 |
| Miami Dolphins |
58.82 | 15.88 | 2.50 |
| Cleveland Browns |
53.40 | 14.42 | 1.50 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
52.94 | 14.29 | 2.25 |
| Seattle Seahawks |
52.94 | 14.29 | 2.25 |
| Denver Broncos |
51.47 | 13.90 | 2.00 |
| Atlanta Falcons |
51.01 | 13.77 | 1.50 |
| Minnesota Vikings |
46.65 | 12.60 | 1.75 |
| Chicago Bears |
45.59 | 12.31 | 2.00 |
| New York Giants |
41.17 | 11.12 | 1.50 |
| Green Bay Packers |
38.31 | 10.34 | 2.50 |
| Tennessee Titans |
38.23 | 10.32 | 2.00 |
| Carolina Panthers |
38.23 | 10.32 | 1.75 |
| New England Patriots |
32.35 | 8.73 | 2.00 |
| Indianapolis Colts |
30.45 | 8.22 | 1.50 |
| Las Vegas Raiders |
29.41 | 7.94 | 1.75 |
| Houston Texans |
29.41 | 7.94 | 1.50 |
| Los Angeles Rams |
29.26 | 7.90 | 1.50 |
| Washington Commanders |
27.94 | 7.54 | 1.50 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
20.59 | 5.56 | 1.50 |
| Arizona Cardinals |
13.23 | 3.57 | 1.50 |
Now that you've seen the ratings... here’s how to use them:
The Detroit Lions visit the Kansas City Chiefs in the season opener on September 7.
- My NFL ratings have Kansas City’s spread value at 21.84 points (rating/100 x biggest spread margin in NFL, which is 27 points) and Detroit at 17.07 — a difference of 4.77 points.
- The game is being played in Arrowhead Stadium, which I have given a home-field value of 2.25 points based on KC's recent ATS success at home and the impact of the crowd and venue on opponents (home-field value has been diminishing in recent seasons, but this is a prime-time game and ring night for the Chiefs, so expect an always loud KC crowd to be “well oiled” by the time the 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff rolls around).
- Adding 2.25 to the margin of 4.77 points gives us a projected spread of Kansas City -7.02. That actually sits pretty close to the current spread for this Week 1 opener, with the Chiefs bouncing between -6.5 and -7 across the industry.
Now, this is just a starting point and one slice of information to fold into your overall handicap. Not all games are as cut and dry as adding and subtracting the NFL power ratings. Things like injuries, weather, and situational challenges (and advantages) can skew a spread up and down.
You may also want to throttle those ratings in divisional matchups, since those rivals know each other well and often play tighter games (divisional underdogs covering 52.5% of the time since 2000).
