So, Drew Lock is your quarterback? You’re really doing this? OK. Drew Lock it is…
The Seattle Seahawks begin the post-Russell Wilson years with Lock as their guy for 2022 — and according to reports, the team wasn’t interested in any other QB options (Baker Mayfield or Deshaun Watson) after trading away the face of the franchise in March.
Pete Carroll is coming off his first losing season in a dozen years as head coach in the Emerald City after the Seahawks finished 7-10 SU (9-8 ATS) in 2021. He’s the third overall favorite to be the first head coach fired in 2022 with the Seahawks’ NFL odds calling for another regression in victories.
When it rains it pours, especially in the Pacific Northwest. Get out the umbrellas, here’s our Seattle Seahawks 2022 betting preview.
Seattle Seahawks futures odds
| Futures bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| To win Super Bowl | +20,000 |
| To win conference | +10,000 |
| To win division | +2,000 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 6 (Under -120) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes +450 / No -600 |
Best futures bet: Under 6 wins (-120)
If you’ve been following along with my NFL 2022 betting breakdowns, I’m pretty much going Under on wins for all the garbage teams. And Seattle is set up to be absolute garbage this year. Forgetting about Lock and how his play will impact the Seahawks’ top talents, we swing focus to a defense that’s making a dedicated move to the 3-4 under promoted coordinator Clint Hurtt.
This stop unit was all kinds of horrible in 2021 and outside of some shining stars in the secondary, it lacks the talent to push back against a schedule that features not only constant quality divisional foes in the NFC West, but also draws the QB-loaded AFC West and a Munich matchup with Tom Brady and the Bucs.
Seattle’s lookahead lines project four wins while the season win totals bounced between 5.5 (Over -140) and 6 (Under -120) from book to book.
Seattle Seahawks betting overview
What will win bets: Safe secondary
The Seahawks have one of the best safety combos in the NFL with Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams anchoring a secondary that didn’t allow foes to explode for big gains, giving up just 49 plays of 20-plus and holding opposing passers to an average depth of target of just seven yards – not bad for a unit that spent more time on the field than any other.
The switch to the 3-4 aims to cause a little chaos after Seattle mustered a pressure rate of merely 22.1% last season. Making rival QBs hurry while limiting the amount of home run plays should lead to a few more turnovers. Slowing down the rate at which rivals score is key for a team getting the points most Sundays.
What will lose bets: Quarterback play
Carroll finally gets to run the ball without pushback but given the state of the defense, Seattle will be forced to throw in the second half. Then what? The current offensive line is no better than the group that ranked 25th in adjusted sack rate at Football Outsiders in 2021 and allowed Wilson to feel the heat on 27% of dropbacks (leading to that Week 5 finger injury which sunk the season).
The Seahawks’ best two offensive weapons – DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett – no longer have Wilson making banana-balls throws and instead are tethered to a guy who peaked as a rookie and got exposed once teams got tape on him. Defenses don’t respect Lock like they did Wilson and Seattle will miss the luxury of fear with the football.
Seattle Seahawks game-by-game odds
Life in the NFC West was tough enough when you had a future Hall of Famer keeping you competitive, but the Seahawks run a gauntlet in 2022 which ranks 11th in standard strength of schedule and tied for 12th in my QB SOS. Seattle is a point spread favorite in only four games and gets more than six points in seven outings.
After trading away Wilson in March, expectations for the Seahawks were low but rumors swirled about adding a quality quarterback. However, the team’s inactivity in the QB market has tacked on as much as 1.5 points to certain spreads when compared to Seattle’s lookahead lines in the late spring.
Seattle won’t be able to lean on the vaunted “12” in Lumen Field much in the opening half of the season, playing only four of its first 10 contests at home before the bye in Week 11 – a stretch that has the Seahawks getting five or more points in six of those games. Seattle was an underdog of +5 or higher only seven times in Wilson’s 10 years with the team.
| Week | Opponent | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs. Denver | +5 | 41.5 |
| 2 | @ San Francisco | +9 | 43.5 |
| 3 | vs. Atlanta | -3 | 44 |
| 4 | @ Detroit | +2 | 45 |
| 5 | @ New Orleans | +6.5 | 43 |
| 6 | vs. Arizona | +3 | 46.5 |
| 7 | @ L.A. Chargers | +8.5 | 47 |
| 8 | vs. N.Y. Giants | -2.5 | 42.5 |
| 9 | @ Arizona | +7 | 46.5 |
| 10 | vs. Tampa Bay (GER) | +9 | 47 |
| 11 | BYE | ||
| 12 | vs. Las Vegas | +3 | 46.5 |
| 13 | @ L.A. Rams | +10.5 | 47.5 |
| 14 | vs. Carolina | -2.5 | 41.5 |
| 15 | vs. San Francisco | +4.5 | 43.5 |
| 16 | @ Kansas City | +11 | 45 |
| 17 | vs. N.Y. Jets | -2.5 | 43 |
| 18 | @ L.A. Rams | +5.5 | 45.5 |
Seattle Seahawks Pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
The league's worst quarterback situation, combined with the league's worst offensive line, is a recipe for disaster. I would selectively look to bet Under on Seattle games.
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Adam Chernoff, The Simple Handicap podcast (@adamchernoff)
Seattle Seahawks early season forecast
The Seahawks had a remarkable record in home openers with Wilson under center (9-1 SU/6-4 ATS) but what happens when he’s playing for the other team? The schedule-makers got sassy with the Week 1 finale, sending Wilson and the Broncos to Seattle for Monday Night Football. The Seahawks opened as low as +3.5 and have watched this spread climb as high as +5.
Week 2 brings the Seahawks to the Bay Area to play the 49ers, with this spread ranging from +8 to +9. It’s a short week with travel for Pete Carroll & Co. facing another dominating defense. San Francisco will roll Chicago in its opener and if Wilson gets his revenge in Week 1, I expect this spread to flirt with double digits.
The Seahawks find themselves between -3 and -3.5 favorites hosting the lowly Falcons in Week 3 for what could go down as the shittiest game of 2022. This will be Atlanta’s second straight road game after visiting the L.A. Rams in Week 2. Depending on which side you like in this “toilet bowl”, bet around the half-point hook accordingly.
Seattle Seahawks spot bet
Week 10: vs. Tampa Bay in Munich (+9, 47)
This Week 10 international game closes out a dreadful patch of schedule for the Seahawks, who will be playing five of seven games away from home between Week 4 and Week 10.
Seattle has back-to-back roadies at Detroit and New Orleans before coming home to face Arizona in Week 6. Then it goes to L.A. to play the Chargers before crossing the country to face the Giants in Week 8. From there, it’s a stop at Arizona before jumping the pond to play Tampa Bay in Munich, Germany. The cherry on top of that shit sundae is a 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff in Week 10, which is 6:30 a.m. PT.
Seattle Seahawks totals tip
Seattle wrapped 2021 with a 6-10-1 Over/Under record. Three of those Under winners came without Wilson under center and three more hit in his first three games back from the finger injury, as he struggled to throw the football. The 2022 sked features nine totals of 44.5 points or less.
Under bettors are licking their chops with Lock at QB and this defense still padding against the big play while teams dink and dunk their way to first downs and extended drives. The Seahawks offense will attempt to protect Lock with the run, which means short gains with the clock ticking, but faces defenses ranked Top-10 in EPA allowed per rush in 10 of their 17 contests.
Star power: DK Metcalf props
| Player prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| Most receiving yards | +5,000 |
| Most receiving TDs | +3,000 |
| Receiving TD total | 6.5 (Over -115) |
| Receiving yards total | 900.5 (Over -115 |
Best prop: Over 6.5 receiving touchdowns (-115)
The drop-off from Wilson to Lock is like comparing Speed to Speed 2: Cruise Control. That difference shows in DK Metcalf’s player props for 2022, including a major downtick in touchdowns. The 6-foot-4, 235-pound Greek God caught 13 TD passes last year... and three of those came from Geno Smith.
Not having Wilson dropping his trademark dimes will dig into Metcalf’s yardage (his 2021 yardage prop was 1,350.5 yards O/U), but DK is still a threat to find paydirt once you get over half.
ProFootballFocus ranked him their No. 1 red-zone receiver and his ability to catch contested balls as well as an emphasis on YAC in 2022 make Metcalf a live bet to go Over 6.5 touchdowns. I mean, who else is Seattle going to throw to?
Seattle Seahawks trend to know
Deciphering any trends with teeth for the Seahawks is tough considering Wilson kept this team afloat and squeaked out countless close contests in recent seasons. Seattle sat second and fifth in TeamRankings’ “Luck Rating” in 2019 and 2020, but that magic wore off in 2021 (32nd).
The Seahawks posted a 3-5 SU (5-3 ATS) count in one-score games (decided by eight points or less) last season with Wilson hindered by the finger injury. In the three seasons prior (2018-2020), the Seahawks were 23-10 SU in those nail-biters (14-16-3 ATS).
They’ve grabbed 26 of their 40 total wins in the past four seasons in games decided by eight points or less – that’s 65% of their overall victories. If they went .500 in those one-score games, you’re looking at almost 1.5 less victories per season for the Seahawks over that span.
That late-game magic left the Emerald City back in March.
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