The Seattle Seahawks were the surprise team of the 2022 season.
Their 9-8 record spit in the face of NFL Futures as they easily eclipsed their season win total of just 5.5 victories, dunked on the -600 “No Playoffs” prop, and backhanded the look-ahead spreads that had the Seahawks as favorites in just four of their first 17 games of the post-Russ Era.
Unfortunately, that success brings on one of the toughest foes a team will ever face: expectations.
Seattle’s 2023 season win total is nine wins and the early NFL odds have it set as the chalk in nine games while playoff props give the Seahawks about a 55% shot at making the postseason. Their Super Bowl odds are mid-pack giving the fan base a glimmer of hope.
The one weird thing about Seattle’s sudden success in 2022 was the lack of point-spread winners. Usually, when a team exceeds expectations, it brings bettors along for the ride. But Seattle wrapped up the regular season 7-10 against the spread after the market corrected midway through the year.
The Seahawks were 6-2 ATS in the opening eight games and finished with a 1-8 ATS thud in the final eight outings. WTF?
What awaits football bettors in the Emerald City this season? Let’s find out with my 2023 Seattle Seahawks NFL betting preview.
Seattle Seahawks futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +3,000 | +3,500 | +3,500 |
| Win conference | +1,300 | +1,300 | +1,400 |
| Win division | +195 | +200 | +220 |
| Make playoffs | -120 | -122 | -120 |
| O9.5 wins | +125 | -142 | +100* |
| U9.5 wins | -155 | +116 | -120* |
*Win totals Over/Under is 9.0 at Caesars
Best futures bet: No Playoffs (+100 at FanDuel)
The Seahawks squeaked into the tournament last season, edging out Detroit with a tiebreaker to grab the seventh and final remaining ticket.
If it wasn’t for closing dates with “walking dead” teams in the Jets and Rams in the final two weeks of the season, Seattle would have been sitting at home come playoff time.
The betting markets are hell-bent on Seattle finishing with nine wins in 2023, and that’s not going to cut it. The Seahawks schedule doesn’t help out either, ranked No. 11 in SOS and facing a slate of 49ers, Cowboys, 49ers, and Eagles between Weeks 12 and 15.
My NFL power ratings do have the Seahawks sitting as the sixth-highest NFC club, however, they’re just ahead of the Atlanta Falcons, who wiseguys have been lusting over all offseason.
The NFC South battle between Atlanta and New Orleans – who have cupcake schedules – is going to close the postseason window for the remaining contenders in the conference.
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Seattle Seahawks betting overview
What will win bets: Offense
Geno Smith’s renaissance in Seattle earned him Comeback Player of the Year honors in 2022, making everyone forget about Russell Wilson.
Week after week, bettors waited for the other shoe to drop, but Smith kept it dangling with an efficient passing attack that proved to be one of the more accurate. Seattle boasted the fifth-highest success rate per drop back at 49.9% in 2022.
Receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett pumped out twin 1,000-yard seasons and the Seahawks added another threat in first-rounder Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who will be on the active roster to start the season after a preseason wrist injury.
Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron had his offense throwing on more than 59% of snaps, which should increase as long as head coach Pete Carroll can keep his “run the ball” insights to himself. And handing off isn’t a terrible option, considering Kenneth Walker III and second-rounder Zach Charbonnet share the carries.
The Seahawks finished 10th in points per game with an average of 23.9 and were 5-3 SU (4-4 ATS) when putting up 24 points or more in 2022.
What will lose bets: Trenches
While there’s plenty to be excited about on offense for the Seahawks, it could all go to shit if this offensive line doesn't take the next step.
Youngsters played beyond their years in 2022, especially when it came to run blocking, but Smith took 46 sacks and 64 hits – fourth most in the NFL. Preseason polls have the Seattle O-line listed as low as 30th in the league and this team takes on a number of dangerous defenses along the way, especially in the second half of the schedule.
As for the defense, the front line bore the brunt of the blame for the team’s poor second-half showing in the Wild Card Round, hemorrhaging points and yards to the 49ers. There are several new faces in Clint Hurtt’s 3-4 scheme which could once again leave this pass rush toothless.
The Seahawks don’t blitz much and cooked up a pressure rate of only 20.8% last season while also getting bowled over by rival run games. Seattle finished 26th in EPA allowed per handoff and that allowed teams to thrive on third downs (42.86% conversion rate) and inside the red zone (58.62% TD rate allowed).
Seattle Seahawks 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Los Angeles Rams |
-5.5 |
| 2 | @  Detroit Lions |
-2.5 |
| 3 | vs  Carolina Panthers |
-4 |
| 4 | @  New York Giants |
+1 |
| 5 | BYE | |
| 6 | @  Cincinnati Bengals |
+4.5 |
| 7 | vs  Arizona Cardinals |
-7.5 |
| 8 | vs  Cleveland Browns |
-2 |
| 9 | @  Baltimore Ravens |
+3 |
| 10 | vs  Washington Commanders |
-4 |
| 11 | @ Los Angeles Rams |
-2 |
| 12 | vs  San Francisco 49ers |
+1.5 |
| 13 | @  Dallas Cowboys |
+3.5 |
| 14 | @ San Francisco 49ers |
+4 |
| 15 | vs  Philadelphia Eagles |
+2 |
| 16 | @  Tennessee Titans |
-2 |
| 17 | vs  Pittsburgh Steelers |
-2.5 |
| 18 | @ Arizona Cardinals |
-4.5 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
Most teams see a bit of contrast between their season win total and look-ahead lines. But not the Seahawks. Bookies have this team dialed into nine wins.
My NFL power ratings respect that market take and have the Seahawks ranked 16th (52.31/100). That's right on the postseason cutoff in the conference and places them as a firm second in the NFC West, with the 49ers ranked first and the Rams and Cardinals dwelling in the sewers.
Five of the nine games in which Seattle is a favorite see those spreads on the other side of a field goal (-3.5 or higher), thanks in part to a pair of run-ins with Arizona and playing the Rams and Panthers in the first three games. Seattle went 0-4 ATS when laying -3.5 or more last season.
Week 1 has the Seahawks playing host to the rival L.A. Rams, with this line bouncing between -4 and -6. My NFL ratings produced a projected spread just shy of a touchdown for the home side. Seattle is a sterling 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 home openers.
The first seven games of 2023 are where the Seahawks have to make hay. They’re betting chalk in four of those contests, with a bye in Week 5, and are short dogs at Detroit (+3) and visiting the N.Y. Giants for Monday Night Football (+1). The toughest task in the first two months is a trip to Cincinnati in Week 6 (+6).
Things get darker in November. Week 9 has Seattle on the East Coast in Baltimore for a 1 p.m. kickoff. This will be one of six road games in the final 10 slots on the schedule. The Seahawks were 3-4 ATS as visitors in 2022 with one road flipped to a neutral-site spot in the UK.
Seattle has the most daunting stretch of schedule in the entire NFC when it takes on the 49ers twice, Cowboys and Eagles in a string of four weeks, with Week 12 set as a Thanksgiving Thursday showdown with San Francisco and Week 13 another Thursday outing at Dallas.
Eight of Seattle’s spreads fall in the field goal range - -3 to +3 – which means plenty of tight games for Pete Carroll’s crew. The Seahawks finished 5-4 SU in one-score games last season (decided by eight points or less) but went 2-7 ATS in those nail-biters.
The early Over/Under numbers average out to more than 44 points for the Seahawks, reflecting their status as one of the higher-scoring offenses in the land.
Seattle, being a strange team in 2022, actually pumped out more points on the road (25.7 vs. 22.1 at home) which led to a 5-2 Over/Under count as a visitor compared to 3-6 O/U as a host/neutral.
Seattle Seahawks schedule spot bet
Week 10: vs Washington
The Emerald City awaits the Commanders at the end of a very long stretch of schedule that sees Washington on the yellow brick road for five of its seven games between Week 4 and Week 10.
This nasty schedule spot will have the Hogs muttering, “There’s no place like home” come November 12.
Not only is this cross-country trip to Seattle the end of that road-packed stretch but it’s Washington’s second straight away game and fourth roadie in five weeks.
Look-ahead lines have the Seahawks laying -4.5 while my ratings cook up a spread closer to Seattle -9, as I’m down on the Commanders in 2023.
Star power: DK Metcalf props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| OPOY | +6,000 | +8,000 | +8,000 |
| Receiving yards leader | +3,500 | +4,000 | +5,000 |
| Receiving TD leader | +2,500 | +2,500 | +2,500 |
| Receptions leader | +3,500 | +6,000 | OTB |
| O7.5 rec TD | -125 | -130 | +105* |
| U7.5 rec TD | +105 | +102 | -135* |
| Receiving yards total | 900.5 | 900.5 | 1,000.5 |
*Rec TD Over/Under is 8.5 at Caesars
Best prop: Under 75.5 Receptions (-120 at DraftKings)
Have you seen the NFL “script” commercial? If so, you know you really want to see DK pull off the “Ab-Ra-Ca-Grab-Ra” and snatch a pass with his insane stomach. Unfortunately, he’ll need his hands if he’s going to top his receptions prop in 2023.
Metcalf was already splitting targets with Lockett and now must contend with heralded rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the ball, who will likely miss a game or two to start the season.
In 17 games last year, DK brought down 90 passes for 1,048 yards but his 2023 forecast calls for a decline to 76 receptions, according to the consensus from many popular projection models. That estimate sits right on the nose of this Over/Under prop while the basement for catches was just 71.
His yardage props have taken a hit in the betting markets, dropping a full 100 yards at some books from 1,000.5 O/U to 900.5 O/U over the offseason. And plenty of fantasy football sites are touting JSN over DK and labeling the 6-foot-4 a potential bust for owners in 2023.
Seattle Seahawks betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
There is a lot of excitement within the Seahawks passing game with the addition of rookie receiver Jaxson Smith-Njigba, but expecting a 70% completion rate from Geno Smith this year and a league-best +4.8% CPOE is asking a lot. JSN has already had wrist surgery, and a favorable SOS could lead to an emphasis on the run game.
DraftKings has Smith’s passing total at 3900.5 yards which is 75 yards higher than at FanDuel. With possibly more positive game script and a decline in accurate throws in small windows, a lot has to go right for Smith to hit this Over and that includes staying healthy in his year-33 season.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
Thanks primarily to the rejuvenation of Geno Smith in 2022, Seattle was one of last season’s biggest surprises and a strong start should be expected in 2023 thanks to a light schedule to open the season.
While Smith might still have his doubters, I’m not one of them. The team put him in a position to succeed and he took full advantage by being consistent over the course of the entire season and proved to be one of the league’s most accurate passers. With that in mind, I’ll happily take the Over on his passing yard total of 3,800.5 (-115) at Caesars.
Smith finished last season with 4,282 passing yards and I don’t see him regressing. Seattle passed at the 13th-highest percentage last season and improved continuity should be expected with what should be a Top 5 receiver group.
Seattle Seahawks trend to know
Home-field advantage is always an interesting debate when you’re talking about what it's worth to the NFL point spreads. For years, the consensus was a field goal.
According to our guy Shawn Wronka, home-field advantage was worth just 1.4 average points on the spread in 2022 – down 1.2 points since 2006. But does that hold true for stadiums like Lumen Field with the infamous “12”?
When Pete Carroll took over the team in 2010, the Seahawks’ home field was respected by books and bettors alike. And for the first six years of his tenure in Seattle, the team was an amazing bet at home, going 36-19-1 ATS as a host (65%).
But ever since 2017, the Seahawks’ ATS returns at home have diminished. Seattle is 17-23-1 ATS over the previous five seasons, leaving out 2020 when zero fans were in the stands at Lumen Field. Funny enough, the Seahawks went 6-2 ATS in those quiet home stands.
Make Seattle a favorite of more than a field goal (-3.5 or higher) in those home games and it’s just 5-14 ATS in those five seasons (save for 2020) – covering just 26% of the time. Could we say “home field” is overvalued in Seattle?
The Seahawks are giving more than three points in four of their home games this season.
Seahawks as big home favorites
- Week 1 vs L.A. Rams -5
- Week 3 vs Carolina -4.5
- Week 7 vs Arizona -7.5
- Week 10 vs Washington -4.5
