Super Bowl Odds: Sportsbooks Breathe Easier After Lions Loss Erases Super Bowl Liability

The Detroit Lions were considered Super Bowl favorites ahead of Saturday's match against Washington. Jason Logan explains why their loss is a big relief for sportsbooks worldwide.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Jan 19, 2025 • 09:17 ET • 4 min read
Jared Goff Detroit Lions NFL
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There is no joy in Motown. 

As the clock ticked down on the Detroit Lions’ 46-31 loss to the Washington Commanders, legions of heartbroken football fans shuffled out of Ford Field with dreams of a Super Bowl shattered.

However, across the globe, sportsbook operators aren’t sharing that sorrow. Bookies are doing backflips over the Lions’ upset loss in the NFL Divisional Round.

Detroit held the most liability for operators across the industry, garnering the most tickets written to win Super Bowl LIX and the most money wagered on the Super Bowl odds. Had the Lions fulfilled their destiny with a Big Game victory, books were on the hook for massive payouts.

Heading into the Divisional Round matchup with Washington, the Lions were around +300 favorites in the Super Bowl LIX odds — a spot that reflected their winning ways but also the sportsbooks’ liability on Detroit. 

According to BetMGM sportsbooks, the Lions entered the second round with almost 15% of the total ticket count for their Super Bowl book along with 16% of the total handle — the total amount of money wagered on the SBLIX odds.

Those figures included a $20,000 wager on Detroit to win the Super Bowl at the team’s opening odds of +1200. Had the Lions gone on to claim the Lombardi Trophy, that one bettor would have won $240,000.

With Detroit eliminated from the playoffs, the Super Bowl LIX odds got a shake-up ahead of Sunday’s final two Divisional Round contests. 

The Kansas City Chiefs, who advanced to the AFC title game with a victory over the Houston Texans, are now the favorites to win the Super Bowl, priced around +225 across the industry. 

The Chiefs entered the Divisional Round with more than 12% of tickets written and almost 16% of the money riding on a third straight title for the Chiefs. But because Kansas City’s odds were short most of the season — opening at +650 — the liability is greater on some of the other remaining postseason teams.

The Baltimore Ravens (+450) and Buffalo Bills (+550) battle tonight, with bookies showing a rooting interest in Buffalo at home. 

The Ravens are now the biggest risk to the Super Bowl book, drawing about 10% of tickets and 13% of handle. Baltimore opened at +850 to win SBLIX and a slow start to the season had its Big Game odds puffed up to +1400 before finding its form in Week 3 and jumping to the top of the AFC North.

The winner of Sunday’s game between the Los Angeles Rams (+1300) and Philadelphia Eagles will host Washington (+650) in the NFC Championship Game. And with the Eagles as the favorites in that meeting, Philadelphia is now the second overall choice to win SBLIX at +275.

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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