Steelers vs Bills Week 5 Picks and Predictions: Singletary Continues to Thrive in Passing Game

It’s Kenny Pickett time for the Pittsburgh Steelers but a road date vs. the Buffalo Bills’ elite pass defense is about as bad as a first start a rookie quarterback can have. 

The entire Pittsburgh secondary was on the injury report this week which is great news for the Bills’ No. 2-ranked passing game and more importantly in the backfield for a running back who leads the league in routes ran. It could be a big game (or three quarters) for Devin Singletary who has 125 yards receiving over the last two games.

Here are my free NFL picks and predictions for Steelers vs. Bills.

Steelers vs Bills best odds

Steelers vs Bills picks and predictions

Devin Singletary has become a very pivotal part of this Buffalo offense. He’s totaled 125 yards receiving over the last two weeks, played 88% of the snaps vs. the Ravens, and has run more pass routes than any other running back in football at 118 through four weeks.

With some pass-catching injuries starting to stack up with the Bills, it’s tough to see his role in the offense decline, but because of the 14-point spread and game script possibly giving later snaps to backups, I’m targeting his receiving yard total and leaving his rushing and total yard props alone.

Even with the great receiving output in back-to-back weeks, his yardage total is up just two yards to 17.5 vs. Week 1. Jameson Crowder, Isaiah McKenzie, and Dawson Knox could all be out for the Bills and defenses aren’t allowing Josh Allen to take deep shots as the QB sits 16th in air yards per attempt. 

Enter Singletary who has 16 targets over the last two weeks (13 catches) and plays on a team that is passing the ball 65% of the time. The 15-20 mph projected winds could also aid in the short passing game for the Bills.  

It’s not often we get a sub-20-yard total for a back who gets 88% of the snaps and run routes at the rate Singletary does. 

My best bet: Devin Singletary Over 17.5 receiving yards (-110)

Steelers vs Bills spread analysis

The Bills are laying 14 points to Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh Steelers in Orchard Park Sunday afternoon. This line was Buffalo -13 on the look-ahead, opened at 13.5, and quickly hit 14 Sunday night.

Pickett threw three interceptions last week vs. the Jets and a negative game script Sunday will likely have him passing a ton vs. the No. 2 defense in EPA/dropback. It's also a defense that's tied for the league lead in interceptions with seven on the season. This defense held Lamar Jackson to a 63 quarterback rating and had two picks vs. the potential MVP quarterback. Facing Pickett at home with 15-20 mph winds should be a much easier task. 

Dane Jackson has been great on the outside with a 40.9 QB rating when targeted while the combination of Matt Milano and safely Jordan Poyer could eliminate a favorite target in Pat Freiermuth who led the Steelers in targets with nine last week. 

In Week 3, as a 10-point home favorite vs. the Titans, the Bills had no issues running up the score and playing at a fast pace before resting the starters in the fourth quarter in the 41-7 blowout. 

If Pittsburgh can’t get healthy in the secondary, it could get really ugly for the Steelers’ defense against the No. 2 offense in EPA/dropback. As of Wednesday, both of the Pittsburgh starting safeties were DNP while its two starting corners were limited.

Even with the Bills coming in shorthanded at receiver with Jameson Crowder out and Isaiah McKenzie working his way back from a concussion, Josh Allen makes anyone who is in the lineup better and could turn this into a three-score game by half time.

Buffalo is not a team you want to pass 75% of the time against. With Najee Harris still struggling to gain more than three yards per carry and Pittsburgh likely chasing points out of the gates, I’d much rather the Bills at -14 than a first-start QB at Highmark Stadium.   

Steelers vs Bills Over/Under analysis

On the season, the Steelers are 2-2 O/U while the Bills are 1-3 O/U. The Steelers have the No. 23 scoring offense at 18.5 points per game with the No. 15 scoring defense at 22.5 points per game and have seen an average total of 41 on the season. 

Buffalo has seen totals of 50, 54.5, 47, and 51.5 this year and has the No. 5 scoring offense at 28.5 points per game and the No. 2 scoring defense at 14.5 points allowed per game. Only five other teams have allowed fewer touchdowns than the Bills through four weeks.

It could be another windy affair at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park with 15 to 20 mph winds expected. That’s nothing new for Josh Allen but could be an issue for Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett. 

This Pittsburgh offense should see an upgrade with Pickett under center but that's not saying much with how bad Mitch Trubisky was. The rookie completed 10 of his 13 passes in Week 4 for 120 yards while rushing for two scores. He did toss three picks (not all his fault) to a bad New York defense and could certainly kill some drives Sunday vs. a Buffalo defense that is tied for the league lead in interceptions. 

Even with their lowest total of the season (47), the Bills laid such a beating on the Titans in their last home game that neither team saw important starters play for the majority of the final quarter in the 41-7 Buffalo win. It wouldn't surprise me if Allen and the offense got a breather late in the game in a blowout.

I don’t trust Pickett enough for this Over vs. a defense that can generate pressure with a four-man rush and drop seven guys into coverage. Pickett had three turnovers vs. the Jets — this is a tough start for a rookie QB.

Steelers vs Bills betting trend to know

The Bills are 9-1-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Bills.

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