A pair of 7-6 SU teams face off indoors this afternoon as Mitch Trubisky and the rested Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Indianapolis Colts, who sit as -2.5-point favorites on the NFL odds board.
With an indoor setting, Trubisky and this offense getting more time, the Indy defense struggling to stop anyone, and the Steelers’ defense banged up and not looking great in prime time, should bettors continue to pile on Colts Overs?
I break down the Week 15 NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Steelers vs. Colts on December 16.
Make sure to also check out our favorite Steelers vs. Colts player props and Zack Moss prop picks for more great wagers!
Steelers vs Colts odds
Steelers vs Colts predictions
It’s no secret that sharp bettors love the Indianapolis Colts’ Overs this year. Shane Steichen’s offense is competent and runs plays at one of the fastest rates in all of football. They sit in the Top 10 in plays per game and that's with having an offense that converts third downs at a Bottom-10 rate.
It’s a reliable offense that ranks between the Lions and Jaguars in points per game and averages 26.5 points per game at home on the season. They just finished a four-game winning streak and managed to score 27 or more in five of their last seven games including twice in losses.
The defense is where things get sexy in this game as an Over backer at 42. Only two other teams allow more points per game at home than the Colts at a whopping 28.8 per contest. That’s an average total score of 55.3 at home this season. They’re scoring 26.5 points per game there and still have a negative point differential. Those home games also include zero opponents with Top-10 offenses, per success rate.
This is a defense that gave up 34 points to Jake Browning and the Bengals last week who went three for five in the red zone on Sunday.
Bettors already moved this from a look-ahead of 40 to 42. The Pittsburgh Steelers looked bad in primetime which is likely suppressing the number, but that was a bad spot for the Pittsburgh offense last Thursday on the short week, with a backup QB, facing an elite defense in the Patriots.
The public perception is low on the Steelers which is fine by me. As long as Diontae Johnson and George Pickens have their heads on straight and perform, this offense, coupled with Jaylen Warren’s emergence, can move the ball on Saturday. The Colts have been one of the worst rush defenses since Halloween.
Some possible defensive injuries are also in the Over’s favor. TJ Watt entered the concussion protocol on Saturday morning, and although he does have extra time to recover, his absence would move the numbers. Linebacker Alex Highsmith also exited Week 14 for the Steelers and is questionable.
The Colts could be without starting linebacker AJ Speed who was looking more doubtful early in the week while corner JuJu Brents has missed six games in a row.
The injuries are on the Over’s side and the Colts are 6-2 to the Over across their last eight games and 5-1 O/U at home this year indoors.
My best bet: Over 42 (-105 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Steelers vs Colts same-game parlay
Over 41.5
Pat Freiermuth 50+ receiving yards
Jaylen Warren Over 44.5 rush yards
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Going a little bigger here. The Over is where my best bet lies but Jaylen Warren has a great matchup this week after facing the No.1 rush defense last week. He has been the much more efficient runner despite fewer carries and leads all RBs (minimum 100 carries) in yards per carry at 5.6.
Pat Freiermuth is just two weeks removed from a 100-plus-yard game. He had a season-high route share last week and should garner around 20% of the target share on Saturday.
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Steelers vs Colts spread and Over/Under analysis
The Colts were -2.5 on the look-ahead, re-opened at -3, and had some resistance early in the week to move this back to 2.5. Backing the Colts and the Overs has been profitable this season with the ATS going 8-5 and 9-4 O/U, but early bettors have liked this spot for the visitors.
The public perception of the Steelers is low after getting beat by Bailey Zappe in primetime on Thursday, but they’re getting time to prep with their backup in Trubisky and the Colts’ defense has been giving it up to everyone all season long.
Browning led the Bengals to 23 unanswered second-half points last week vs. the Colts outdoors. Running the ball has been a breeze vs. this toothless defense that ranks 31st in EPA/rush vs. the run over the last seven weeks. That could mean a big game from the Pittsburgh rushing game that looked good before facing the No.1 rush defense last week.
Jaylen Warren is gaining 6.8 yards per carry since Week 9 while even Najee Harris has been impressive with a 4.3-ypc mark over that stretch which is better than his career marks.
This game will continue to see Over money and the reistence here is at Indy -3.5 as the Steelers have more trust as a 3.5-point dog than the 5-point favorite they were last week. If the Over gets more steam, it could go as high as 43.5.
If TJ Watt can’t go, bettors might be able to get the Steelers at +3 but I doubt it hits +3.5.
Steelers vs Colts betting notes
- Harris had 12 carries to Warren’s five last week but the latter was more involved in the passing game with five targets for 29 yards. Harris has posted a 59% snap share in back-to-back games as Warren is still struggling to cut into his role despite elite output per rush.
- Pat Freiermuth had just three catches last week but had seven targets which tied for the team high on 38 dropbacks.
- Zack Moss had an 83% snap share and took 13 of the 16 RB carries last week. No.3 Trey Sermon saw the other three.
- Michael Pittman is one of the league leaders in target share which has risen to 31.3% after getting 11 targets on 42 dropbacks last week.
- Rookie TE Will Mallory is gaining a role in the offense with a 32% route share last week with a five-catch and 46-yard day. He is still running behind Kylen Granson but is cutting into his snaps/routes.
Steelers vs Colts betting trend to know
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 43% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Colts.
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Steelers vs Colts game info
| Location: | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Saturday, December 16, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NFL Network |
| Opening odds: | Colts -2.5, O/U 34.5 |
Steelers vs Colts latest injuries
Steelers vs Colts weather
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