Steelers vs Dolphins Sunday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Offenses Shine in Tua's Return

The return of Tua Tagovailoa sets the stage for Sunday Night Football when his Miami Dolphins host the Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL Week 7 odds.

Tagovailoa has been sidelined since Week 4 after suffering a scary concussion in a Thursday game – just four days removed from a controversial return to play after suffering an apparent head injury in Week 3. In the time without Tua, the Dolphins have dropped three straight outings with the offense producing a grand total of 48 points.

Pittsburgh snapped a four-game slide with a stunning win over Tampa Bay as 9.5-point home underdogs last Sunday. The Steelers are expected to have rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett under center after he suffered his own concussion scare in Week 6.

I break down the point spread and Over/Under total for Sunday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Steelers vs. Dolphins on October 23.

Steelers vs Dolphins best odds

Steelers vs Dolphins picks and predictions

Tua’s triumphant return will no doubt have a positive impact on this Dolphins offense. In the three full games with Tagovailoa under center in Mike McDaniel’s new playbook, Miami topped the league in EPA per dropback and boasted a success rate of 48.8% on those passing plays.

But in the past three games with Tagovailoa out of action (out most of Week 4’s loss to Cincinnati), the Fins have slid all the way down the board to 25th in that advanced passing metric with a success rate of 44% from backups Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson. 

Miami went from completing 70% of throws to 60% and had to produce 23.6 yards per point vs. just 12.8 in the first three contests. Miami may not pick right back up where it left off but is in much better hands with this offense running through Tua.

And speaking of offenses in much better hands, the Steelers have been a livelier bunch with rookie QB Kenny Pickett under center. Pickett, who is also in concussion protocol after leaving Week 6’s win over Tampa Bay, was a full participant in practice Wednesday and is trending toward active for Week 7.

Since moving to the rookie QB from Mitchell Trubisky, Pittsburgh’s passing game has improved in terms of efficiency, jumping from dead last in EPA per dropback to 17th the past three weeks — even with a 38-3 beatdown at the hands of the Bills in that stretch. The average yards per completion have also risen from 5.5 to 6.7 in the previous three outings.

That output came against sound defensive opponents too, playing Tampa Bay (seventh in EPA allowed/play), Buffalo (third) and the New York Jets (11th). Pittsburgh doesn’t face a foe nearly as stingy in Week 7, as the Dolphins stop unit has softened greatly in recent showings.

Miami is 31st in points per play allowed since Week 4 (0.538) and not only comes into the Sunday nighter with injuries up front and in the secondary but also takes on a Steelers offense that has enjoyed an extremely in-depth and inciteful week of film study led by the man who formulated the Dolphins defense.

Former head coach Brian Flores is a defensive assistant with the Steelers now, and the media is playing up his return to South Beach and his ongoing legal battle with the franchise.

Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has downplayed the Flores factor heading into game day, and while he can’t give any edge in deciphering McDaniel’s new offense, he does know the Fins’ defensive schemes better than anyone and the tendencies of former assistant Josh Boyer — who stayed on as defensive coordinator in Miami.

As for Flores’ current crew under new DC Teryl Austin, the Steelers' stop unit is not performing up to snuff when compared to past editions of this defense. Pittsburgh is sitting 23rd in EPA allowed per play and the once-feared pass rush is mustering the fourth-lowest pressure rate in the land.

The Steelers had allowed scores of 29, 24, and 38 points before holding Tampa Bay to just 18 points in Week 6 — an outcome that skews how Pittsburgh is measured defensively considering the Bucs went 1-for-4 in the red zone, leaving points on the table. 

Before Tua’s absence, Miami was crushing it inside the opponents' 20-yard lines with a 77.78% TD rate in the red zone (fourth best). The Dolphins' RZ TD percentage slumped to 62.5% in the three games without Tagovailoa. 

We have two offenses being lifted by their young QBs (and some inside info) and two defenses that are giving up a ton, yet a total that doesn’t reflect those trends. I like the Over on Sunday Night Football.

My best bet: Over 44.5 (-110 at Pinnacle)

Steelers vs Dolphins spread analysis

The look-ahead spread for this Sunday nighter was set at Miami -5.5 in the summer, which isn’t too far off the official opener for Week 7. 

The Dolphins announced that Tagovailoa had passed the league’s new concussion protocols (prompted by his Week 4 injury) ahead of their Week 6 matchup with Minnesota but opted to sit their QB1. With NFL odds knowing Tua would likely be back for this primetime game, Miami opened as low as -6.5 and quickly shot up to -7 on Sunday night.

That spread climbed to -7.5 with questions surrounding Pickett’s availability after he left Week 6 with an apparent concussion, but once he returned to practice at full speed, books trimmed the half-point hook. The industry consensus is Miami as an expensive touchdown favorite, however, there are some -7.5 and even -8 lines out there.

According to DraftKings, there is a notable split in action for this game with 55% of the ticket count taking the Steelers and the points vs. 72% of the early money on Miami. Covers Consensus also shows 55% of picks on Pittsburgh.  

Steelers vs Dolphins Over/Under analysis

The look-ahead total from the offseason was on the board at 45 points and the official Week 7 Over/Under number opened close to that projection, at 44.5 points.

With Tagovailoa’s return to play, bigger bets have come in on the Over. According to DraftKings, 64% of tickets are on the Under but 66% of the money is backing the Over. That has inflated the number to as high as 45 points.

Miami was the No. 1 EPA per play team in the first three games of the season, boasting outputs of 20, 42, and 21 points with Tua under center against the likes of New England, Baltimore, and Buffalo. Since then, the offense has sunk to 28th in that metric. There are injury concerns for WR Jaylen Waddle and RB Raheem Mostert (both listed as questionable).

The Dolphins have been dreadful defensively as well, giving up 27, 40, and 24 points in the past three games. The stop unit sits 23rd in EPA allowed per play in that span and enters Week 7 with injuries to starters in the front seven.

The Steelers' defense is also dinged up entering Sunday night, especially in the secondary with starting corners Ahkello Witherspoon and Cameron Sutton listed as questionable along with standout safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and backup outside CB Levi Wallace.

Pittsburgh’s once-mighty defense hasn’t played up to standards in 2022, sitting 15th in DVOA at Football Outsiders. The loss of T.J. Watt has taken the teeth out of this pass rush, with the Steelers owning the fourth-lowest pressure rate in the NFL and just 12 sacks.

Both Pittsburgh and Miami enter Week 7 with twin 2-4 Over/Under records. 

Steelers vs Dolphins betting trend to know

The Steelers are just 4-5-1 SU and 2-7-1 ATS when coming off a win the past two seasons. Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Dolphins.

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