Coming off their thrilling 30-28 victory in Week 3, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) host the banged-up Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Lambeau Field Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.
Rodgers and the Pack have found their groove after a humiliating Week 1 loss while Big Ben and the Steelers are trending in the opposite direction and facing big-name injuries on both sides of the ball.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers for Sunday, October 3.
Steelers vs Packers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Green Bay was -6.5 on the look-ahead and then opened at -7. It has since been brought off the -7 on many books but the market seems split on the -7 and the -6.5. The total was listed at 48 on the look-ahead, but after the Pittsburgh offense came up empty in Week 3, the total opened below the key number of 47 to 45.5 where it has held steady all week.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Steelers vs Packers picks
Picks made on 9/30/2021 at 9:29 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Steelers vs Packers game info
• Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
• Date: Sunday, October 3, 2021
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Steelers at Packers betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key injuries
Steelers: Chukwuma Okorafor OL (Out), Stephon Tuitt DE (Out), Rashaad Coward T (Out), Chase Claypool WR (Out), Carlos Davis DT (Out).
Packers: Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR (Out), Elgton Jenkins T (Out), Kevin King CB (Out), Krys Barnes LB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 40-13-1 in Steelers' last 54 road games. Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Packers.
Steelers vs Packers predictions
Packers -6.5 (-110)
It was a rough Week 3 for Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense, who managed just 10 points against the Bengals and continued to have the worst run game in all of football. Pittsburgh’s 3.2 yards per rush is the worst mark in the league, which means the Steelers’ offense will have to play into the strength of the Green Bay defense Sunday.
The Packers sit 25th in DVOA rush defense, but the secondary has picked up some slack now that Kevin King has been relegated to a smaller role and is questionable with a concussion. All four starting DBs for Green Bay are graded positively, per PFF, and the tandem of Jaire Alexander and first-round rookie Eric Stokes is starting to come together.
The 49ers’ wide receivers caught just 12 of their 22 targets last week versus Alexander and Stokes. This week, they might not see Juju Smith-Schuster or Diontae Johnson, who are both questionable. If they both sit, Alexander will likely see plenty of Chase Claypool, who had 15 targets last week, meaning Ben will have to look elsewhere in the passing game, as testing Alexander is a recipe for losing.
With Roethlisberger still dealing with a pectoral injury, an O-line that allowed four sacks, and a non-existent running game, Pittsburgh was forced to pass underneath in Week 3 and not take many shots downfield. If Najee Harris gets another 19 targets, Pittsburgh could be heading into Week 5 at 1-3 SU.
The defensive line play is also a key aspect of this game. The Packers kept Rodgers clean last week, allowing a single sack and just two QB hits while the Steelers' defense failed to create any pressure against a weak Cincy O-line and generated 0 QB hits. T.J. Watt is still questionable for this matchup and if he misses another week, Rodgers could have plenty of time in the pocket.
Big Ben could be under pressure again this week as the Packers generated four total sacks against San Francisco last week and hit Jimmy Garoppolo 11 times. The Steelers don’t have much depth behind Ben with Mason Rudolph next in line, so knocking the injured QB out of the game could be checkmate, and it wouldn't surprise us if Rudolph saw some action Sunday.
Rodgers and Davante Adams could be in for another massive game in Week 4 versus Pittsburgh's No. 23 DVOA pass defense. The Bengals didn't need to lean on the pass last week versus Pittsburgh but still managed to complete 14 of 18 passes for 9.6 yards per pass and three scores.
The Packers also have one of the league's worst red-zone defenses, but facing a Pittsburgh offense that is averaging just 2.3 RZ trips per game and has a total of three RZ TDs should help the cause.
Under 45.5 (-110)
Pittsburgh has failed to hit an Over this season as the offense has managed just 16.7 points per game, which is the fifth-worst mark in the league. Their once-stout front seven gave up 5.0 YPC last week versus Joe Mixon and the Bengals, which could translate to some rushing success for Aaron Jones and the Packers. Jones has averaged 18/75/1 over the last two games and his usage and success is a key aspect of betting this Under.
We aren’t expecting the Pittsburgh offense to force the Packers into a negative game script, which means Green Bay should have plenty of chances to run the ball and eat clock. If this does successfully open up the play-action game, we're still confident that Pittsburgh won’t move the sticks easily through the air to stay competitive and run up the score.
Roethlisberger sits third in the NFL in passes thrown (130) but finds himself all the way down at No. 25 in yards per pass — one spot below Jared Goff. Ben and this offense are quantity over quality and this is not a great matchup for a team with no running game and two key injuries to Johnson and Smith-Schuster.
Unders are hitting at 63.6 percent (non-OT games) to begin the year and we don’t trust a conservative and injured Pittsburgh offense to keep up with Green Bay and force them to keep passing the ball.
Najee Harris Under 51.5 rushing yards (-110)
Harris’ rushing total has dropped 20 yards from Week 2 but that still isn’t enough to keep us away from fading the league’s worst rushing attack. Harris dominates snaps in the backfield but still has run to a 3.1 YPC average and hasn’t topped 46 yards rushing this season.
His increased usage in the passing game (24 targets last two weeks) is cutting into his rushing attempts as Mike Tomlin realizes there isn’t much space in the running game for Harris to use his skill set. Pittsburgh is averaging 16.7 rushes per game, which is the second-lowest mark in the league.
The 49ers ran the ball just 21 times last week versus Green Bay and totaled just 67 yards on the ground. If Rodgers and the offense can get up early, like they did against San Francisco, Pittsburgh could abandon the run again after rushing the ball just three times in Week 3’s second half.
D’Andre Swift ran for just 37 yards against the Packers in Week 2, while San Francisco’s Trey Sermon loped to 31 yards a week ago. It won’t be easy for Harris behind the league’s worst rushing offensive line.
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