The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens will meet for the third time this season, and it’s win or go home at M&T Bank Stadium on Saturday, January 11.
While most NFL picks will center around Baltimore stars Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, my top Steelers vs. Bengals player props are eyeing wide receiver Rashod Bateman and running back Justice Hill.
Steelers vs Ravens props
- Rashod Bateman Over 43.5 receiving yards (-118 at BetMGM)
- Rashod Bateman most receiving yards in the game (+350 at BetMGM)
- Justice Hill Over 8.5 rushing yards (-111 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Steelers vs Ravens props
Prop bet #1: Rashod Bateman Over 43.5 receiving yards
While a quick peek at Rashod Bateman’s game log showcases considerable week-to-week inconsistency, this isn’t a lofty benchmark for a wide receiver garnering a 69% snap share and receiving 25% of his team’s air yards.
Additionally, Bateman posted a career-high 15.2 aDoT, and he hauled in 11 passes of 20-plus yards to post a rock-solid 16.8 yards per reception. With fellow wideout Zay Flowers (knee) appearing unlikely to suit up Saturday, there are extra targets available in the passing attack, and Bateman has averaged a respectable 4.1 yards after the catch.
Of course, the Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense was leaky down the stretch during its four-game losing streak, too.
The Steelers allowed the third-highest EPA per dropback, and fifth-highest dropback success rate, and opposing wide receivers caught 72% of targets (fifth-highest) for a respectable 8.59 yards per target (11th-highest).
Prop bet #2: Rashod Bateman most receiving yards in the game
This is a buy-now opportunity because Flowers (+165) is still the betting favorite in the market despite missing Wednesday’s practice and trending toward missing the game. Bateman is also behind tight end Mark Andrews (+337) and Steelers wide receiver George Pickens (+211).
I’m anticipating the Steelers' defense prioritizing Andrews in coverage while holding Pickens in check will also be the No. 1 focus for the Baltimore Ravens.
As a result, there’s an opportunity for Bateman to only need a modest night through the air to top the field because I’m also anticipating both Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, and Steelers QB Russell Wilson spreading the ball around.
Additionally, a quick peek at the passing attempts totals and passing yards totals suggests there won’t be oodles of action through the air, either.
| Passing attempts | Passing yards | |
|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 28.5 | 217.5 |
| Russell Wilson | 30.5 | 207.5 |
Prop bet #3: Justice Hill Over 8.5 rushing yards
Baltimore Ravens running back Justice Hill practiced in full Wednesday and is set to return to action after missing the final two games of the regular season, and this 8.5 rushing yards total is tied for his second-lowest benchmark of the season.
He recorded nine or more rushing yards in eight of 15 games, including both his contests against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Additionally, Hill also impressed when given the opportunity this season.
The fifth-year back averaged a rock-solid 4.9 yards per carry, a career-best 4.19 yards after contact per carry, and posted an elite 113.0 PFF elusive rating that ranked fourth among all running backs with at least 45 carries.
Simply put, Hill might only need a pair of totes to hit this Over, and I’m anticipating him finishing around a 25% snap share after checking out at 37% during the regular season.
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