The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens will meet in prime time Sunday night as the home side Ravens look to stay on top of the AFC North despite not having Lamar Jackson who is considered doubtful for the rivalry game.
Nobody is running the ball more lately than Baltimore, and with a timeshare in the backfield, there is plenty to like about the supposed Ravens backup.
Here are my NFL player prop picks for Sunday Night Football’s battle between the Steelers and Ravens. Be sure to also check out Jason Logan's SNF betting picks and predictions!
Steelers vs Ravens props
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Steelers vs Ravens SNF props
Give me Gus
J.K. Dobbins rushed for 50 yards on nine carries in the first half vs. the Falcons last week but saw just one more series in the second half (three carries for nine yards). Gus Edwards got the majority of the second-half snaps, which is concerning for Dobbins who has struggled with injuries and some think is being preserved.
John Harbaugh had to address this issue this week and stated that neither back is on a snap or carry count. With the Ravens relying heavily on the run game with Tyler Huntley under center, I’m not sure I trust ol’ John here as after two seasons of dealing with devastating injuries to the RB stable, keeping these two fresh and healthy is paramount.
Dobbins’ rushing total is 56.5 yards while Edwards’ is at 39.5. Dobbins’ issues seemed to be priced in as his rushing total closed at 70.5 yards last week. However, if these two are going to share the workload evenly, Edwards looks like the better play as his rushing total is actually two yards shorter than last week.
Edwards has rushed for at least 55 yards in three straight weeks and at least 50 yards in four of his last five games. Since Dobbins has returned (three games), Edwards is averaging over 10 carries for 73 rushing yards per game.,
In that last meeting with Pittsburgh, the Ravens owned the line of scrimmage, rushing for 215 yards on 5.1 yards per carry in a game Huntley started.
Finally, and very importantly, no team is running the ball more over the last three weeks than Baltimore at 61%. Edwards will get plenty of opportunities Sunday night.
Gus Edwards Prop: Over 39.5 rushing yards (-111)
Tight with the TE
Kenny Pickett returned to the lineup last week and led the Steelers to win vs. the Raiders. I wouldn’t look too much into the passing numbers as the game was played in frigid conditions that weren’t optimal for the Pittsburgh QB, but one thing that was rekindled was the connection between the QB and Pat Freiermuth.
The tight end hauled in seven of his eight targets for 66 yards last week and always produces when Pickett is under center. In the eight games the two have played together this season, Freiermuth is averaging 6.75 targets, 4.9 receptions, and 55 receiving yards.
The tight end had a closing yardage total of 41.5 yards in the last meeting but has been as high as 48.5 yards this season, making this week’s total of 35.5 an easy Over target with solid passing conditions for a January game.
Defensively, this is a Baltimore team that opponents have had zero success running against of late. Baltimore ranks second in EPA/rush since Week 9 which is only worse than the 49ers. If Pittsburgh is going to have success, it will likely have to be through the air vs. Baltimore where Freiermuth had six grabs (nine targets) for 53 yards against last season in the meeting at M&T Bank Stadium.
With the chemistry between Pickett and Freiermuth combined with an elite Baltimore run defense, the second-year TE is going to be a massive part of the offense Sunday night.
Pat Freiermuth Prop: Over 35.5 receiving yards (-115 at FanDuel)
Fixing the red zone
Over the last three weeks, no team has struggled to score in the red zone more than the Ravens who have a scoring percentage of just 22%. It has become such a point of concern, that Harbaugh and the offense have been giving it a lot more attention at practice this week.
In an interview with BaltimoreRavens.com, Gus Edwards stated that the team was seeing a lot of red-zone situations at practice this week and putting a lot of emphasis on it.
The Ravens went 1-for-4 in the red zone last week, but this is a number that is unsustainable considering how well (5.7 yards per carry last three games) and how heavily they are running the ball.
Both Dobbins (+162) and Edwards (+260) are showing value on their anytime touchdown markets and both backs are getting carries inside the 20.
For a team that’s running the ball at 61% over the last three games and has zero passing threat, getting either back at these prices is solid value. I’m taking Edwards due to the price and the projected share of the carries which might be more even than the prop markets are indicating.
I'd take Edwards to +220 before considering taking Dobbins at +160.
Gus Edwards Prop: Anytime touchdown (+260)
