One of the best rivalries in football reconvenes on the Sunday Night Football stage when the Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Baltimore Ravens in NFL Week 17.
There’s no love lost between these AFC North foes on a standard Sunday but when you throw gas on that divisional fire with late-season playoff positioning on the line, you get what should be a combustible matchup — even with Baltimore without quarterback Lamar Jackson.
That was the case when these clubs collided back in Week 14, with the Ravens grinding out a 16-14 win in Pittsburgh. Baltimore has secured a ticket to the postseason but is still chasing Cincinnati in the AFC North while Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes are slim but alive at 7-8.
I break down the point spread and Over/Under total for Sunday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Steelers at Ravens on January 1. For more, be sure to check out our Steelers vs. Ravens prop picks.
Steelers vs Ravens best odds
Steelers vs Ravens picks and predictions
If you read my NFL Week 17 Underdogs column, you’ll see I took the points with Pittsburgh at a field goal, leaning into the Steelers’ defensive surge in the second half of the season and discounting the Ravens’ recent success against some broken teams.
That said, while Baltimore has taken advantage of a soft slate (and the Steelers without Pickett for most of the game), you can’t knock the work of that rushing attack that has carried the Ravens into the postseason.
A lot of the attention is on RB J.K. Dobbins after mighty production in the last three weeks, but his running mate Gus Edwards has been just as effective in his three games since returning from injury.
Edwards has rushed for a total of 220 yards on a combined 31 carries in the last three games, including 66 yards on 13 runs versus Pittsburgh in Week 14. While Dobbins has boasted bigger days and held an edge in snap rate, Edwards is rushing for more than seven yards per carry in that span and has gotten snaps in the fourth quarter while Dobbins hasn’t received a single handoff in the final frame of the past two games.
With Lamar Jackson sitting out Week 17 and the receiving corps already down Devin Duvernay and potentially Demarcus Robinson (questionable with a groin injury), the Ravens have no choice but to lean on their running backs to move the chains in Week 17.
Edwards' Over/Under prop on rushing yards is sitting as low as 39.5 for Sunday Night Football, pretty much in line with his recent rushing totals of 35.5 and 40.5 yards the past two weeks. He’s eclipsed his prop total and this current number of 39.5 yards in three straight and in six of his last seven appearances.
Edwards says he’s getting close to 100% health and has shown the ability to break off big gains in recent outings, rumbling for longs of 37 and 25 yards versus Atlanta and Cleveland. One home run play like that puts a significant dent in a Week 17 player prop that isn’t a reflection of his current efficiency or Baltimore’s run-heavy game plan.
My best bet: Gus Edwards Over 39.5 rushing yards (-115)
Looking to bet on some NFL action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Mark Andrews 50+ receiving yards, score a touchdown BOOSTED to +350 at Betway! Bet Now
B) Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, and Najee Harris each have 50 or more rushing yards BOOSTED to +600 at bet365! Bet Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of NFL promo codes for 2022.
Steelers vs Ravens spread analysis
With Jackson’s status up in the air as he recovers from a PCL sprain in his left knee, NFL odds opened Baltimore around -4 at home on December 25. And with each day Lamar failed to practice and Ravens head coach John Harbaugh stayed tight-lipped on his status, this spread has been chipped down to as low as -2, as of Friday.
Baltimore has a steady backup option in Tyler Huntley, who is expected to start Sunday night, but his passing and rushing abilities don’t measure up to what Jackson means to this offense. If Jackson was ruled in, this spread would go back to the -4 and likely push through some dead numbers with a closing line around -6.
The Ravens have been able to absorb the loss of their star QB thanks to a soft schedule that had them playing the likes of Denver, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Atlanta — opponents with weaker offensive attacks that the Ravens defense could handle with Huntley under center.
The Steelers offense isn’t blowing the doors off anyone but has presented more punch since making the move to rookie QB Kenny Pickett. Pickett was knocked out of the Week 14 meeting with Baltimore early due to a concussion, leaving snaps to demoted QB2 Mitchell Trubisky. While he was able to move the chains, he snuffed out any offensive progress with three interceptions in the two-point loss.
Close games are the calling card of this AFC North rivalry. The last five meetings between the Steelers and Ravens have been decided by five points or less and the underdog is 20-6-3 ATS in the past 29 clashes between these clubs.
According to WynnBet books, more than 72% of tickets are on Pittsburgh as a road underdog while 94% of the handle is also riding on Pittsburgh and the extra points.
Steelers vs Ravens Over/Under analysis
This Over/Under hit the board at 36.5 points on Sunday and with Jackson’s status looking bleaker by the day (before being ruled out on Friday afternoon), this number has slowly trimmed to as low as 35 points at some sportsbooks.
Bookies and bettors need only to look to early December and the 30 total points tallied in that Week 14 matchup between these AFC North opponents for a reason to keep this total low. However, the Ravens and Steelers have historically cranked out low-scoring finishes, having played Under in four straight and owning a 5-10 O/U count going back to 2015.
The current versions of these rivals are both built on the backs of their defense. Pittsburgh’s stop unit stumbled a bit after losing star LB T.J. Watt early in the year, but since his return, this Steelers defense has jumped from 26th in EPA allowed per play to No. 9 since Week 10.
Baltimore has also watched its defense tighten up in the second half of the schedule, improving from 28th in EPA allowed per play in the first eight weeks of action to No. 3 in that advanced metric since Week 9.
Both stop units have been especially stingy against the running game, ranked out No. 4 and No. 6 in Run Defense DVOA at Football Outsiders, and you have two offenses anchored in the ground game with Baltimore rushing on almost 51% of snaps and Pittsburgh going to the ground more than 43% of the time. Those playbooks also run a slower pace that picks up shorter gains and keeps the clock moving.
Given that makeup, it’s no wonder the Ravens and Steelers are profitable for Under backers this season with Pittsburgh producing a 6-9 O/U count and Baltimore sitting at 4-11 O/U on the year.
With the current Week 17 total as low as 35 points, it should be noted there have been only three other games since 2015 with a closing total of 35 points or less: two have occurred this season (both Under) and the other was a late-season matchup between these two teams in 2019 that went Over with a final score of 28-10.
According to WynnBet, 80.5% of tickets on the total are on the Under while more than 97% of money is banking on another low-scoring finish between Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The forecast for Sunday night calls for partly cloudy skies, little wind, and temperatures in the low 40s.
Steelers vs Ravens same-game parlay
Edwards Over 39.5 rushing yards (-115) + Steelers ML (+120) + Harris anytime TD (+135)
The Ravens’ recent success has a lot to do with a soft schedule and barely getting past a Steelers team playing without Pickett for most of Week 14. Pittsburgh left points on the table in that last matchup but Harris will cash in on the goal line after scoring five TDs in his last six games. Edwards’ efforts are being undervalued and he’s top this modest total in a run-heavy playbook for Baltimore.
SNF SGP odds: +1,100 at bet365
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Steelers vs Ravens betting trend to know
Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin is a career 7-8 SU at Baltimore but 9-6 ATS in those road games. Overall, the Steelers are 10-2-2 ATS as an underdog against the Ravens since 2007. Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Ravens.
Steelers vs Ravens game info
| Location: | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Sunday, January 1, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
| Opening odds: | Ravens -4, 36 O/U |
Steelers vs Ravens latest injuries
Steelers vs Ravens weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
