The league’s only undefeated team, the 6-0 Pittsburgh Steelers, take on division rivals Baltimore Ravens (5-1) at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore on Sunday. The Ravens are coming off a bye and the Steelers are counting their lucky stars that they escaped Week 7 with a win after nearly blowing a 20-point lead to the Titans.
Baltimore opened as 5.5-point favorites but that number has since dropped all the way to -3.5 in some books. The total also has had early movement, opening at 49 and falling to 46.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Steelers vs Ravens on November 1 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens betting preview
Weather
The forecast is calling for game-time temperatures in the mid-50s with a 35 percent chance of rain for the 1 p.m. ET kickoff, clearing off as the game goes on. Winds are blowing SSW up to 10 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Steelers: Devin Bush LB (Out), Ulysees Gilbert III LB (Out), Chris Wormley NT (Out).
Ravens: Mark Ingram RB (Out), Anthony Averett CB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 over the last six matchups. Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Ravens.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Steelers nearly blew a 20-point second-half lead and almost allowed the Titans a chance to tie it up late, but a last-second field goal attempt ultimately missed. Pittsburgh escaped with the win — and the cover — but the league’s No.2 DVOA defense almost let it slip away. Looking at the boxscore, the Steelers ran 18 more plays and converted on 13 of 18 third downs. If it wasn’t for three Pittsburgh turnovers — two interceptions in the fourth quarter — the Steelers could have won by double digits in a game they were the underdog and managed to score 24 points over their first four possessions.
The Ravens had a week off after they beat the Eagles in Week 6 but allowed Philly to backdoor the -10 spread. Baltimore is 3-3 ATS this year with those wins coming against Cincinnati, Houston and Cleveland—all bottom-16 DVOA defenses. The Baltimore offense has not matched their output from a year ago as MVP Lamar Jackson is averaging just 17 completions a game for 189 yards and rushing for nearly 23 fewer yards per contest.
Baltimore won and covered in both matchups last year but that was without Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has won and covered in his two most recent trips to Baltimore.
PREDICTION: Pittsburgh +4 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The last time these two teams got together the total was set at an unimaginable 35 points, thanks to the QB play of Duck Hodges. In both games that Jackson and Roethlisberger squared off in 2018, the Under hit twice by an average of more than a TD. Baltimore may be averaging 30 points a game, but they have faced some of the league’s worst defenses. Pittsburgh is allowing the second-lowest yards per play and it’s No. 1-ranked rush defense, which held Derrick Henry to 75 yards on 20 carries in Week 7, could force a struggling Baltimore passing attack to win the game.
We would obviously like this total at the key number of 47 but we still like a hard-fought battle between the AFC North’s two best to be low-scoring. The Steelers are 0-4-1 O/U as a road underdog in their last five games while Baltimore is 0-4 O/U in its last four at home and 0-5 O/U in its last five games against the AFC. The Pittsburgh offense could also be without WR Diontae Johnson, who dropped a 9/80/2 on 14 targets last week, while the Baltimore defense will have newly-acquired DL Yannick Ngakoue from Minnesota, who is one of the best pass rushers in the league.
PREDICTION: Under 46.5 (-110)
First-half total pick
Combined, the Steelers and Ravens are allowing 19.1 first-half points per game and both teams rank in the Top 5 in the category. Pittsburgh has not allowed more than a single TD in the 1H in back-to-back weeks and that was against the Titans and the Browns, both of which are Top-10 scoring offenses.
Baltimore is coming off the bye and should have a game plan ready for the early part of the contest. Its defense has allowed just one first-half touchdown in its last three games and hasn’t allowed a single point across its last two first halves.
PREDICTION: First half Under 23 (-110)
Steelers vs Ravens betting card
- Pittsburgh +4 (-110)
- Under 46.5 (-110)
- First half Under 23 (-110)
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