The AFC’s only perfect teams collide in Week 7 as the 5-0 (4-1 ATS) Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Tennessee to take on the 5-0 (2-3 ATS) Titans in a game that has early playoff implications.
Tennessee opened as a 1.5-point favorite on the look-ahead but swung to Pittsburgh -1 following Sunday’s games. PIT is -2 as of Monday night. The total sits at 52.5 which is a season-high for both teams.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Steelers vs Titans on October 25 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans betting preview
Weather
The temperatures are expected in the low-60s at game time at Nissan Stadium. There will be a 1 percent chance of precipitation and a 4 mph wind. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Steelers: Devin Bush LB (Out), Derek Watt FB (Out).
Titans: Taylor Lewan T (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Steelers have hit the Under in three of their last four road games. Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Titans.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Steelers have gotten the run game going over their last four as James Conner has topped the century mark in three of those games. Big Ben hasn’t had to do too much as he hasn’t gone over 240 yards passing since Week 2 and threw for just 162 yards last week.
The defense and running game have been doing the heavy lifting in Pittsburgh’s five wins and the Steelers have five takeaways compared to just one turnover across their last four games. They also lead the league in sacks per game getting opposing QBs 4.8 times per match.
Tennessee has had a couple of interesting games over the last couple of weeks. The win over Buffalo was dictated by costly turnovers from the Bills and 10 penalties (the yards per play was even at 5.4) and last week’s come-from-behind victory was dramatic but anything but convincing.
The Titans can’t afford to fall behind the Steelers early as this defense isn’t soft like the Bills or Texans. Tennessee will also be without starting left tackle (Ryan Tannehill’s blind-side blocker) Taylor Lewan and possibly TE Jonnu Smith who exited Week 6’s game.
PREDICTION: Pittsburgh -2 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Pittsburgh held the Cleveland Browns to a single TD last week, 1-for-12 on third downs and allowed just 220 yards of offense. The Browns came into the game banged up on the offense side of the ball, but this Steelers’ defense has looked legit in 2020. The injury to ILB Devin Bush hurts, but the strength of this defense is in their front-four where three players rank 10th or better at their positions.
The Tennessee offense has been rolling, scoring 148 points over its last four games but those matches came against all bottom-15 DVOA defenses. Pittsburgh will be Derrick Henry's biggest test this year as the Steelers own the league’s best DVOA run defense. We doubt Henry will be ripping off any 94 rushing TDs again this week. Both teams love to run the ball and both teams’ defenses have done a great job at stopping the run as well. Running and defense should be on full display even with the Titans getting WR Corey Davis back from COVID.
PREDICTION: Under 52.5 (-110)
Total Field Goals Prop Pick
No team has scored more red-zone TDs this year than the Titans, as they average 3.6 RZ TDs a game. Having played Houston, Buffalo, Minnesota, Jacksonville, and Denver has helped pad those stats as four of those teams ranked in the bottom half in DVOA defense. The Steelers have one of the best red-zone defenses, allowing just 1.6 RZ TDs per game, and will give Tannehill and the offense a bigger test when the field shrinks.
The Titans are averaging the second-most FGs per game at 2.8 and could have a more difficult time grinding out short yards with Lewan's absence. The Titans own a Top-12 defense per Football Outsiders and could slow down a Pittsburgh offense that is gaining the fifth-fewest yards per play over its last three games.
PREDICTION: Over 3.5 total field goals (-108)
Steelers vs Titans betting card
- Pittsburgh -2 (-110)
- Under 52.5 (-110)
- Over 3.5 total field goals (-108)
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