NFL futures odds didn't shift a whole lot after Week 17 but the Kansas City Chiefs did see their Super Bowl odds shorten from +450 to +400.
KC has made two of the last three Super Bowls (winning in 2020) and is currently second on the futures board, trailing the Buffalo Bills, who are ahead by a nose at +375.
With the Chiefs still capable of clinching that crucial No. 1 seed in the AFC here's a breakdown of their Super Bowl 57 futures heading into Week 18.
Latest Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl odds
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| To win Super Bowl | +400 |
| To win division | OTB |
| To win conference | +180 |
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of January 3, 2022.
Latest Kansas City Chiefs odds movement
The Chiefs came into this season tied with the Bills atop the Super Bowl odds board at +700. With just one week left in the regular season, they're practically in the same position, albeit with shorter odds now that they're guaranteed a trip to the playoffs and other sides have been eliminated.
They came into Week 17 at +450 to win the SB, and despite barely beating the 4-12 Broncos at home, they are now at +400. The Chiefs haven't looked great against bad teams in recent weeks, getting pushed into overtime by the cellar-dwelling Texas in Week 15 and beating the Broncos by just six points the week before that. They've covered the spread just once in their last nine games.
For a team that has had as much postseason success over the last few years as Kansas City, even +400 is a decent number to bet on for them to win it all. Especially since the Chiefs still have a shot at the No. 1 seed, which would guarantee them a first-round bye and home-field advantage through the AFC.
Keep in mind that the Chiefs are 39-9 at home (playoffs and regular season) with Patrick Mahomes as their starting QB.
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Kansas City Chiefs odds outlook
With Mahomes leading the way, the Chiefs lead the league in DVOA offense according to Football Outsiders, while also ranking first in EPA/Play. As long as Mahomes is at the helm, this team will be explosive enough on offense to beat anyone.
However, they've been shaky on the other side of the ball, and are 23rd in DVOA defense while ranking 15th in defensive EPA/Play. Other Super Bowl contenders like San Francisco, Dallas, Buffalo, and Philadelphia all sit in the Top 5 in DVOA defense while Cincinnati is a respectable 12th.
It will be interesting to see what the league does with the postponed MNF game between Buffalo and Cincinnati because KC needs a win in its season finale along with a Buffalo loss (either to the Bengals or at home versus the Patriots in Week 18) in order to claim the top seed.
If the Chiefs end up settling for the second or third seed and their defense gets gashed by the Raiders on Saturday, we could see their odds drop by next week.
Kansas City Chiefs upcoming schedule
Saturday, January 7 - at Las Vegas
The Chiefs will kick off the final week of the NFL season on Saturday afternoon in Vegas. The line opened with the Chiefs as high as -10 but as of Tuesday afternoon, that number has slimmed to -7.5.
Although the Chiefs are expected to beat the Raiders for the 10th time in the last 11 meetings, covering the spread will be a lot tougher. Kansas City is just 0-6 ATS in its last six games against AFC West foes, which includes a Week 5 clash against the Raiders where the Chiefs won by just a single point at Arrowhead.
The Raiders benched veteran QB Derek Carr last week, but backup Jarrett Stidham made a case to be their quarterback of the future in an overtime loss to the 49ers. The 26-year-old threw for 365 yards and three scores against San Fran's top-rated defense on Sunday and now he faces a far more vulnerable Chiefs unit.
