After coming up short in Super Bowl 53, the Los Angeles Rams missed the playoffs. Then, they were ousted in the Divisional Round a year later.
Head coach Sean McVay knew his Super Bowl window wouldn’t stay open forever, especially with Jared Goff as his quarterback. So, he said, “f#$% it, who needs draft picks,” and went out and traded for Matthew Stafford.
With the move, the Rams immediately became a legitimate contender and saw their Super Bowl futures jump from +2,000 to +1,200. And despite some ups-and-downs throughout the season, the all-in gamble paid off as the Rams return to the Big Game, and in their own stadium no less.
We run down the Rams’ Super Bowl odds during their long and winding road to SoFi Stadium for Super Bowl LVI.
Los Angeles Rams Super Bowl odds season recap
Implied probability to win the Super Bowl 2021-2022
Part I - making a change at QB
Opening Super Bowl LVI odds: +2,000
Following last year’s Divisional Round loss to the Green Bay Packers, it looked like the Rams had peaked. A team with some next-level defenders and a solid offense would always be a step behind the likes of the Packers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the quarterback department and it showed in the odds. The Packers with Aaron Rodgers and the Bucs with Tom Brady had the best odds in the NFC at +900 and +1,000. Heck, the Rams were even behind division rivals the San Francisco 49ers (+1,400), who were ravaged by injuries following a Super Bowl LIV appearance. So, McVay knew a change was needed if the Rams wanted to take the next step.
Post Stafford trade: +1,200
McVay didn’t half-ass the move as he went all-in for Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, a talented but embattled QB, and another in a long line of players wasting away on the Lions roster. But that doesn’t mean he would come cheap. For Stafford, McVay sent starting quarterback Jared Goff and the Rams' first-round draft picks in 2022 and 2023, plus a third-round pick in 2021 to the Lions to make the swap happen. McVay had his man and many were excited to see what Stafford could do in Los Angeles' dynamic offense.
Preseason: +1,200
While the Rams’ Super Bowl futures held steady into the preseason, they were looking like a more enticing option to bettors with plenty of questions surrounding some of the contenders in the NFC. There was a rift between Rodgers and the Packers and many were uncertain whether the reigning MVP would return to Green Bay, and they saw their odds jump to as high as +1,800. Meanwhile, the 49ers looked like they may enter a quick reset after drafting quarterback Trey Lance No. 3 overall, dropping their Super Bowl odds to +1,400. All of a sudden, the Rams had the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl in the NFC.
Week 1 to Week 6: +1,200 to +900
The Matthew Stafford era got off to a solid start. Stafford completed nearly 70% of his passes for 599 yards with five touchdowns compared to just one pick in consecutive wins over the Chicago Bears and the Indianapolis Colts. That said, they were just wins over the Bears and Colts, so oddsmakers weren’t ready to make any moves just yet, particularly when Brady and the Bucs were off to an even better start. But a key Week 3 matchup between the two NFC contenders was looming.
The Rams were finally getting some respect in the Super Bowl futures market after their huge Week 3 win over the Buccaneers. The Rams jumped out to a 21-7 lead and never looked back in an eventual 34-24 victory that wasn’t as close as the score indicates. Most importantly, Stafford looked nearly perfect against a strong Bucs defensive line, throwing for 343 yards with four touchdowns and zero picks. The Rams were letting the NFL know they were for real.
Unfortunately, the early-season honeymoon didn't last long. The very next week, the Rams were throttled 37-20 by NFC West rivals the Arizona Cardinals in a game where they were 3.5-point home favorites. Kyler Murray looked unstoppable as the Cardinals won in every facet of the game while Stafford’s yards per completion were way down. The Cardinals were officially a new threat the Rams would have to deal with in their pursuit of NFC supremacy.
Part II - growing pains
Week 6 to Week 9: +800 to +650
The Rams went through the motions during a mid-season soft spot in their schedule between Week 5 and Week 8, racking up wins over the Seattle Seahawks, New York Giants, Detroit Lions, and Houston Texans with Stafford racking up the stats along the way. But they went just 2-2 ATS in those games and it did not prepare them for the adversity to come.
Week 10 to Week 13: +800 to +1,100
The Rams saw their Super Bowl futures climb as high as +1,100 after three straight losses to the Tennessee Titans, Niners, and Packers. They were favored in all three games. To make matters worse, questions started to arise about Stafford’s ability to perform against winning teams as he threw as many interceptions (five) as touchdowns over that stretch. On top of all that, the team lost No. 2 wide receiver Robert Woods for the season to a torn ACL. But McVay was already pot-committed to this all-in season and didn’t slow down, trading for Denver Broncos edge rusher Von Miller and signing the polarizing wideout Odell Beckham Jr. after he was released from the Browns.
Part III - crawling back
Week 14 to Week 17: +1,000 to +900
Those gambles paid off for McVay as the Rams found their footing down the stretch. Beckham scored six touchdowns and was a great fit opposite Cooper Kupp, who continued to have an MVP-level season. On the defensive side, Miller looked like the perfect complementary piece to Aaron Donald. The Rams won five straight games — which included exacting some revenge on the Cardinals — and were able to pass them for the top spot in the NFC West standings in the process.
Week 18: +900
But the Rams had one more hiccup before the regular season came to a close as the Niners continued to be a thorn in their side. The Rams jumped out to a 17-0 lead over San Francisco in the regular-season finale only to watch the Niners claw their way back and steal a 27-24 OT victory away from the jaws of defeat. It was the Rams' sixth consecutive loss to the 49ers and Stafford threw two more costly interceptions.
Part IV - exorcizing demons
Wild Card: +1,100
As the No. 3 seed, the Rams opened the playoffs at home against an NFC West rival in the Cardinals, but Arizona was a shell of its former self by that point. Murray was under pressure all day from Donald and Miller. Plus, he was without his top target in DeAndre Hopkins. The Rams were efficient on offense and piled up a 28-0 lead in an eventual 34-11 blowout.
Divisional Round: +800
Next, the Rams had to travel to Tampa Bay to take on Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers. The Rams were confident they could compete after the early-season victory and they came out flying. Thanks to a huge first half from Stafford and Kupp, the Rams built a 27-3 lead over the Bucs. However, Brady would not go quietly as the Bucs came all the way back to tie the game at 27 thanks in large part to several untimely fumbles. But Stafford and Kupp did what they've done all season and connected for a huge gain late to set up a game-winning field goal in what turned out to be Brady’s final career game.
NFC Championship: +200
With Brady and the Bucs vanquished, and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers shockingly upset, one final rematch between the Rams and 49ers was set with a date in the Super Bowl on the line. But now the Rams were the favorite to come out of the NFC despite Kyle Shanahan having McVay’s number, and this time it was the Rams with the thrilling comeback. Trailing 17-7 heading to the fourth quarter, Stafford and Kupp did it again, connecting repeatedly, as the Rams scored three times in the quarter to capture the NFC title in a 20-17 defensive battle.
Super Bowl LVI: -200
So, at the end of the road, McVay’s gamble has one more step before it fully pays off. He got the Rams back to the Super Bowl and is a healthy favorite to capture his first Lombardi Trophy going against a Cincinnati Bengals team that opened the season at +18,000 to win it all and were still +2,000 heading into the playoffs. But will the magic of Joe Burrow and the Bengals make McVay and the Rams go bust at the last possible moment?
Los Angeles Rams 2022 Super Bowl odds FAQs
L.A. is currently priced between -175 and -215 on the moneyline for Super Bowl 56.
L.A. was +1,200 to win the Super Bowl in the preseason.
Yes, L.A. is between a 4- and 4.5-point favorite in Super Bowl 56.
