The NFC and AFC Championship games are on deck, and with just four teams remaining it’s our final opportunity this season to turn to the futures markets ahead of Super Bowl LIX.
A pair of heavily anticipated clashes also await, with the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs meeting for the fourth time in five postseasons, and the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles meeting in an NFC East tilt.
Here are my top NFL picks and NFL playoff predictions ahead of Sunday’s showdowns.
AFC conference winner prediction: Kansas City Chiefs (-110 at bet365)
Expect the love to continue pouring in for the Buffalo Bills this week, and especially with the public fatigue amping up for the Kansas City Chiefs.
I lean to Kansas City for three reasons:
- Buffalo just snuck past the Baltimore Ravens despite winning the turnover margin 3-0.
- Kansas City has beaten Buffalo and quarterback Josh Allen in three consecutive postseason games.
- The Chiefs have the better defense, and it might prove to be better by a considerable margin.
Buffalo limped down the stretch with the third-highest dropback EPA allowed and highest dropback success rate allowed while surrendering the sixth-highest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks across its final nine regular-season games.
Obviously, winning seven of the nine means a lot of those opposing QB numbers were impacted by game script, but I don’t think the Bills are going to be able to stop KC QB Patrick Mahomes when needed.
NFC conference winner prediction: Philadelphia Eagles (-290 at DraftKings)
I’m anticipating the Washington Commanders’ Cinderella run ending Sunday. Washington capitalized on a leaky Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense and banged-up Detroit Lions stop unit, and the Philadelphia Eagles have hung with the best defenses in the league for the bulk of the season.
While there was a short adjustment period to defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s schemes, the Eagles allowed just 15.9 points per game, the third-lowest EPA per play and lowest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks (5.61), following their Week 5 bye.
It resulted in a 12-1 run for Philly.
The Eagles also have the higher PFF grade in each of the following metrics: pass blocking, run blocking, and run defense and pass rush.
NFL Playoffs passing yard leader: Jayden Daniels (-230 at FanDuel)
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
 Jayden Daniels |
-230 |
 Josh Allen |
+280 |
 Patrick Mahomes |
+1000 |
 Jalen Hurts |
+1900 |
Odds as of 1-21
Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels is a sizable favorite in this betting market because his 567 passing yards are 168 clear of Josh Allen (399 passing yards), and Daniels is probably already far ahead of Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (259) and Mahomes (177 passing yards).
Daniels isn’t going to be completely shut down by the Eagles on Sunday, and he threw for 191 and 258 yards against Philly during their two regular-season showdowns.
Plus, should the rookie pull off a third consecutive postseason upset, Daniels will have this market all but mathematically locked up with a fourth game to pad his numbers.
NFL Playoffs receiving yard leader: Travis Kelce (+390 at FanDuel)
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin |
+155 |
| Dyami Brown |
+350 |
| Travis Kelce |
+390 |
| Khalil Shakir |
+600 |
| DeVonta Smith |
+1600 |
| Dallas Goedert |
+1700 |
| A.J. Brown |
+3100 |
| Xavier Worthy |
+6000 |
Odds as of 1-21
Washington wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown are ahead of Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce on the odds list, but I’m anticipating the veteran to continue being the go-to target for Mahomes moving forward.
As noted, Buffalo wasn’t stingy against the pass down the stretch, and Kelce has piled up an enormous 289 receiving yards across the past three postseason meetings with the Bills. Additionally, I also value Kelce’s target share climbing to 25.5% over the final 10 games of the regular season compared to just 20.5% to start the year.
NFL Playoff Predictions FAQ
The 2024-25 NFL Playoffs begin with Super Wild Card Weekend on Saturday, January 11, 2025.
Super Bowl LIX, also known as Super Bowl 59, will take place on Sunday, February 9, 2025 at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA.
When betting on the NFL playoffs, consider team performance during the regular season, head-to-head matchups, individual player stats, injuries, coaching strategies, historical playoff performance, and any weather conditions that might impact the game.
Yes. Playoff games are generally more unpredictable because of the high stakes, and teams often make adjustments or raise their level of play. You should take into account the increased intensity, as well as factors like injuries, team depth, and historical performance.
Yes, these are called player prop bets. Common player prop bets include predicting the number of rushing yards, passing touchdowns, or total receptions a player will have.
