NFL Survivor Pools have reached zombie apocalypse status, with a mere handful of the living left to navigate the hellscape that is the final nine weeks of action.
Seemingly safe plays have provided no shelter and with the schedule turning the calendar to Week 10, there aren’t many places left to hide — unless you’ve been super smart with your NFL survivor pool picks and held on to some heavyweight for the home stretch.
But hey, after watching Cincinnati, Buffalo, Dallas, and the L.A. Rams all go down as sizable favorites the past two weeks, is any pick truly “safe”?
Here are our Week 10 survivor pool selections.
My pick: Indianapolis Colts
The Colts hold the second-highest win probability for Week 10 yet find themselves as Sunday’s selection in just 10 percent of survivor pools. Are people a little scared of the Jacksonville Jaguars after they eradicated a good chunk of poolies with an upset win over Buffalo in Week 9?
Whatever the case, Indianapolis is the wise pick in Week 10. We’ve been hesitant to roll out Indy early in the schedule, since it had matchups with the Jaguars and Texans in hand (and plays at Arizona Christmas Week, if your pool is counting that as a separate slate). But now is the time for the Colts, who boast a win probability of 83.33 percent this Sunday and hold moderate future value.
On top of Indy’s projected success, Jacksonville is ripe for a letdown after stunning the Bills and won’t catch Indianapolis napping. The Colts have enjoyed a mini bye after squashing the Jets last Thursday and have lost only five times at home to Jacksonville since 2000, with the latest loss coming back in 2017.
Safest pick: Buffalo Bills
I can hear the trolls now: “Hey, didn’t you take the Bills as your safe pick last week asshole? Lotta good that did you.”
Yep, I sure did. As did a huge chunk of survivor pool players. If you ignored that “safe” advice — instead going with my “smart” pick of Miami — and you’ve been stingy with your survivor selections, then you may still have Buffalo left in the clip.
The Bills are once again massive chalk, with a win probability of 85.71 percent taking on the Jets — the highest on the board in Week 10. Be it that most remaining poolies have already burned up the Bills or maybe they’re cautious after last week’s loss at Jacksonville, but Buffalo is garnering only 6 percent of picks this Sunday, which makes it just the sixth-most popular survivor pool selection.
It’s unfathomable that the Bills would drop two straight as double-digit faves, especially with the sour taste of Week 9’s defeat still in their mouths. Buffalo can’t afford a setback against a divisional opponent either, not with the way the Patriots are playing. I know I said this last week, but “Buffalo is a nice safe survivor pool pick” in Week 10.
Here’s a look at the Top 5 favorites, in terms of moneyline odds and implied probability, for Week 10:
| Team | Moneyline odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | -600 | 85.71% |
| Indianapolis | -500 | 83.33% |
| Arizona | -475 | 82.61% |
| Pittsburgh | -400 | 80.00% |
| Tampa Bay | -400 | 80.00% |
Odds above current at time of publish. Check live NFL moneyline odds and use our odds converter to convert any line to implied probability.
Team to avoid: Pittsburgh Steelers
Rarely do we see the most popular survivor pool selection as the one to avoid, but after watching top choices like the Bengals (46%) and Cowboys (31.5%) go down in consecutive weeks, the Steelers could be pegged as the next big upset.
As of midweek, more than 33 percent of survivor pool players are picking Pittsburgh. Everything adds up: The Steelers are likely among the available teams for most players, hold very little future value, and take on a winless Detroit team at home. Pittsburgh holds a win probability of 80 percent, which is tied for the fourth-highest in Week 10.
All that laid out, do the Steelers really warrant those odds? Pittsburgh blew a 20-9 lead and needed a wayward field goal to avoid an upset loss to Chicago on Monday night, holding a win probability of 75.61 percent for that contest. They face a feisty Lions team that nearly knocked off rival Baltimore in Week 3 and enters Sunday well rested and ready after a bye last week.
2021 survivor pool pick results
| Week | Survivor Pick | Result | Safe Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota | LOSS | L.A. Rams | WIN |
| 2 | Pittsburgh | LOSS | Tampa Bay | WIN |
| 3 | Kansas City | LOSS | Denver | WIN |
| 4 | New Orleans | LOSS | Buffalo | WIN |
| 5 | Baltimore | WIN | Minnesota | WIN |
| 6 | Cincinnati | WIN | Indianapolis | WIN |
| 7 | New England | WIN | Green Bay | WIN |
| 8 | Cleveland | LOSS | Cincinnati | LOSS |
| 9 | Miami | WIN | Buffalo | LOSS |
