NFL Week 18 Survivor Picks: Playing it Safe With the Bills

We've arrived at our destination — hopefully your survivor season is still intact. Jason Logan shares his plays for Week 18 and some lessons learned from an unpredictable season. Best of luck to all poolies, here are our season-ending NFL survivor picks.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Jan 6, 2022 • 14:08 ET • 5 min read
Josh Allen Buffalo Bills NFL survivor picks
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If you’re reading this NFL Week 18 survivor picks piece with an entry still alive in your respective pool, congrats. To steal a line from Captain Kirk, you’ve boldly gone where no survivor player has gone before: Week 18.

The 2021-22 NFL season was my first foray back into the whacky world of survivor pools in more than a decade, and it came with plenty of hard – yet valuable – lessons, especially after our entry in the Circa Sportsbook Survivor Pool Contest went tits up in Week 1.

Here are some of those lessons that I will take into next season, should they actually let me do this weekly article again:

Don’t get cute. Stick with the bigger favorites until you can’t.

Don’t take the most popular pick/biggest favorite. Let those upsets thin the herd.

You can bank on “bad” teams over really bad teams late in the season.

Wait until late. I had to submit these on Thursdays. A lot changes before Sunday.

So once more into the fray my friends, with dreams of survivor pool riches helping us pay off that heaping pile of holiday bills. Good luck in Week 18 and thanks for reading. 

My pick: Minnesota Vikings

To quote the mad Titan Thanos, “You could not live with your own failure. Where did that bring you? Back to me.”

We started this wild survivor pool voyage with a losing pick on Minnesota way back in Week 1, with the Vikings losing in overtime at Cincinnati. Hopefully, you avoided that shit advice and still have Minnesota among the remaining options in your respective pool.

The Vikings are home to Chicago in the finale with head coach Mike Zimmer shooting down any chance of kicking the tires on backup talents like Kellen Mond, while getting Kirk Cousins back under center in Week 18. Zimmer’s seat is getting hot after another disappointing year, and he won’t give the offseason hot stove any fuel by losing this last game.

The Bears, on the other hand, have a possible quarterback question in the finale (only seems fitting to end the season the same way they came in) with Justin Fields in COVID protocol. There’s a shot he clears and plays instead of whatever Andy Dalton/Nick Foles two-headed beast Matt Nagy throws out there. 

Minnesota boasts a win percentage of 71.43% and ranks out as the fifth-most popular survivor pick for Week 18, with just over seven percent of poolies sporting the Viking helmet in the final week of play.

Safest pick: Buffalo Bills

The Bills are among a number of large favorites in Week 18, currently topping the charts with an implied win probability of 92.31% for Sunday’s home game with the New York Jets. 

Buffalo can lock up the AFC East title with a victory over New York and earn the No. 4 spot in the conference, getting them a home date for the Wild Card Round. More than likely, the Bills come out blasting as they attempt to build a big lead and then rest starters in the second half.

For those stingy pool players who strategized to have Buffalo as their last go-to: we salute you. It’s a rarity in Week 18, which shows in the pick percentages for this final slate. Less than six percent of survivor picks are backing Buffalo this Sunday, but everyone wishes they could. 

Here’s a look at the Top 5 favorites, in terms of moneyline odds and implied probability, for Week 18:

Team Moneyline odds Implied probability
Buffalo -1,200 92.31%
Indianapolis -1,100 91.67%
Kansas City -525 84.00%
Tennessee -525 84.00%
Seattle -370 78.72%

Odds above current at time of publish. Check live NFL moneyline odds and use our odds converter to convert any line to implied probability. 

Team to avoid: Washington Football Team

Just like those FedExField guardrails, Washington doesn’t hold much weight for survivor picks in Week 18. The Football Team has nothing to play for in this finale with the New York Giants, and head coach Ron Rivera told the media he will use Week 18 to get some of his bench players and younger talents some regular-season reps.

Washington still holds a win probability of 75.9% for this NFC East matchup and New York hasn’t shown up in weeks, with the locker room bailing on head coach Joe Judge – especially after his tirade following last week’s loss to Chicago. That said, do you want your survivor pool fate tied to a bunch of second and third-stringers in the second half of Sunday’s game?

It looks like a lot of poolies don’t have a better option, with Washington garnering nearly 14% of picks for Week 18 – second-most behind Tennessee. If my pool purse is on the line, I’m not opting with the WFT if I can help it.

2021 survivor pool pick results

Week Survivor Pick Result Safe Pick Result
1 Minnesota LOSS L.A. Rams WIN
2 Pittsburgh LOSS Tampa Bay WIN
3 Kansas City LOSS Denver WIN
4 New Orleans LOSS Buffalo WIN
5 Baltimore WIN Minnesota WIN
6 Cincinnati WIN Indianapolis WIN
7 New England WIN Green Bay WIN
8 Cleveland LOSS Cincinnati LOSS
9 Miami WIN Buffalo LOSS
10 Indianapolis WIN Buffalo WIN
11 Miami WIN Tennessee LOSS
12 Houston WIN Dallas LOSS
13 Indianapolis WIN L.A. Rams WIN
14 L.A. Chargers WIN Green Bay WIN
15 Philadelphia Eagles WIN Arizona Cardinals LOSS
16 Atlanta Falcons WIN Dallas Cowboys WIN
17 Chicago Bears WIN New England Patriots WIN

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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