NFL Week 2 Survivor Picks: Steeling a Week 2 Win

Apparently, the Minnesota Vikings don’t know the rules to an NFL survivor pool.

Much like Fight Club, rules No. 1 and No. 2 are the same: DON’T LOSE. And Vikes gaffed on both. In short, kudos to any psychopaths that took Cincinnati as their opening survivor pool pick. Balls.

My dreams of becoming a millionaire in the Circa Survivor Contest went down the shitter in Week 1, as did a small chunk of marketing budget (sorry dudes). But my safe play survived and something as trivial as “death” can’t stop me from making my favorite Week 2 survivor pool picks.

My pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers blew up a portion of survivor pools with their outright upset at Buffalo in Week 1, and despite that win and a 72.22 percent implied probability versus Las Vegas in Week 2, we see just 1.7 percent of survivor poolies picking Pittsburgh in Week 2.

This defense is licking its chops with the Raiders having to cross the country on a short week for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff with injuries across the offensive line. The Steelers blasted Bills QB Josh Allen with constant pressure, despite barely blitzing, and won’t give Derek Carr time for those big plays to ramp up.

Pittsburgh has an implied probability higher than or equal to the five teams above it in terms of pick popularity in Week 2 - Denver (72.22%), New England (71.01%), Seattle (72.22%), Arizona (66.67%), the L.A. Rams (64.91%) – and the Broncos, Patriots and Rams are playing on the road. 

We found out the hard way how much that can sway a result (lookin’ at you, Vikings).

This is a nice spot to find a capable favorite outside of the Top 5 in pick popularity, letting those other top teams tumble and whittle down the field.

Safest pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

For those just trying to put a few weeks behind them in their survivor pool strategy, Tampa Bay is your bet in Week 2. 

The Bucs have enjoyed a mini bye after a thrilling Week 1 opener with Dallas – which had plenty of poolies sweating through their Tom Brady underoos last Thursday – and welcome Atlanta to the pirate ship. That’s the same team that allowed 32 points to Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Tampa touts the best implied probability of victory in Week 2, sitting at 87.5 percent. 

When measured against the other heavy faves this weekend – Cleveland (86.67%) and Green Bay (84.62) – the Bucs are a better buy because the Browns and Packers play each other on Christmas Day and many pools – including the Circa Survivor Contest – are counting that three-game Xmas Week slate as its own entity. 

Here’s a look at the Top-5 favorites in terms of moneyline odds and implied probability for Week 2:

Odds above current at time of publish. Check live NFL moneyline odds and use our odds converter to convert any line to implied probability. 

Team to avoid: New Orleans Saints

The Saints made the biggest splash in the NFL Week 2 power rankings after throwing the Packers around a hot and sticky TIAA Bank Field on Sunday. New Orleans is a tempting pick visiting Sam Darnold and Carolina this Sunday, but there are some red flashing lights around this matchup.

1. New Orleans is a favorite, but not that big a favorite, boasting an implied probability of 63.64 percent. NOLA isn’t the most prevalent survivor pool pick at 1.1 percent popularity, but there are some other teams in the same probability range playing at home drawing less attention (L.A. Chargers 64.91% WP/0.1% PP).

2. The Saints are traveling for the second straight week, visiting a divisional opponent, and had a COVID-19 outbreak among staffers which disrupted their prep even more, since this operation is working out of a makeshift center in Dallas due to Hurricane Ida.

3. New Orleans is on the Thanksgiving schedule this season, hosting Buffalo on the Thursday in Week 12. For many pools, the three-game holiday slate is considered its own week, and it’s too early to burn up a home team option for that tricky situation.

2021 survivor pool pick results

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