The cold November rain is almost falling with October coming to an end. Luckily, our NFL survivor picks are keeping us warm.
Our “safe” survivor selections are an unblemished 7-0 heading into Week 8 and our “savvy” picks – after a real shit start – are on a three-game run. But as the schedule shortens and the pick options dwindle, expect to see your respective survivor pool shrink in size.
But not this week. We strive to survive with our Week 8 survivor pool picks.
My pick: Cleveland Browns
Injury issues could scare some off the Browns in Week 8, but it looks like most of those key bodies are back – perhaps even Baker Mayfield. Even with backup Case Keenum in the mix, Cleveland holds a projected win probability of 65.52 percent at home to Pittsburgh this Sunday.
The Browns are by no means a safe play, especially in a divisional rivalry that’s produced a 5-8-1 SU mark for Cleveland since Mike Tomlin took the job in Pittsburgh. However, the Steelers are no longer the gatekeepers of the AFC North at 3-3 so far this year. Cleveland boasts the ninth-highest win percentage in Week 8 and its popularity among poolies reflects that, being selected as the survivor pick in just 0.1 percent of pools.
This selection is a smart one, however, with very little future value in the Browns. They do play at Green Bay in the standalone Xmas Week slate – if your pool is counting that as a separate week – but do you really want to pick against the Packers at home in December? Thought not.
Safe pick: Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are the belles of the survivor pool ball in Week 8. Cincinnati is taking on a downtrodden Jets team with a backup QB under center and owns an implied win probability of 83.33 percent. That’s the third-highest projected win rate on the board for a team that boasts little to no future value down the road.
That’s why a whopping 44.5 percent of survivor pool players are picking the Bengals in Week 8. Cincy doesn’t show up on those weirdo weeks – Thanksgiving and Xmas – and plays some quality foes to finish off the second half of the schedule. Grab Burrow and Bengals while you can and live to see the midway mark of the season.
Here’s a look at the Top 5 favorites, in terms of moneyline odds and implied probability, for Week 8:
| Team | Moneyline odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| L.A. Rams | -950 | 90.48% |
| Buffalo | -850 | 89.47% |
| Cincinnati | -500 | 83.33% |
| Kansas City | -450 | 81.82% |
| Arizona | -290 | 74.36% |
Odds above current at time of publish. Check live NFL moneyline odds and use our odds converter to convert any line to implied probability.
Team to avoid: Seattle Seahawks
The default setting for some survivor pool players is simply selecting which ever available team is facing either the Texans, Lions, Jets, or Jaguars. And that leads us to Seattle, which owns an implied win probability of 63.77 percent in Week 8, hosting Jacksonville after a tough loss on Monday Night Football.
The Seahawks are not only on a short week but could get caught looking ahead to a bye in Week 9 – and the potential return of Russell Wilson in Week 10. Add to that a handful of spiteful coaches on the other sidelines who were once under the employment of Seattle, and you may not feel so strongly about the Seahawks, even with the game at Lumen Field.
That tricky spot hasn’t given poolies a pause in selecting Seattle in Week 8, with 3.1 percent of players pick them as their survivor go-to. That’s the fifth-most popular option but the 10th-highest win probability. Hmmmm…
2021 survivor pool pick results
| Week | Survivor Pick | Result | Safe Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota | LOSS | L.A. Rams | WIN |
| 2 | Pittsburgh | LOSS | Tampa Bay | WIN |
| 3 | Kansas City | LOSS | Denver | WIN |
| 4 | New Orleans | LOSS | Buffalo | WIN |
| 5 | Baltimore | WIN | Minnesota | WIN |
| 6 | Cincinnati | WIN | Indianapolis | WIN |
| 7 | New England | WIN | Green Bay | WIN |
