Whether you’re new to survivor pools or you’re a regular "Rick Grimes" when it comes to staying alive, you can make a run at $10,000 with Covers free-to-play Pro Football Survivor contest this NFL season.
The name of the game is just that: Survive.
Each week, contestants select one NFL team to win their respective matchup and advance to the next week if correct. Should they lose, their fun in the pool is over. Sounds simple enough, right? Here’s the rub: you can only pick a team once throughout a season, so you need to strategize.
You don’t want to unload the clip on the stronger teams too early or else you’ll be counting on crappy ones to get the job done later in the year. You’ll also want to avoid following the flock with the most popular pick. One bad game can wipe out a good chunk of contestants and zigging when everyone zags is a good way to thin out the herd.
Each week, I’ll pick through the pool and give my best NFL survivor selection as well as a "safer" pick and one team to avoid. Hopefully, we can at least make it out of September alive.
Good luck out there navigating the best NFL survivor contests.
Best survivor pool bets for Week 1
Click on each pick to read the full analysis.
Covers Week 1 survivor pool picks
Best pick: 
Buffalo Bills
Opponent: vs. Arizona Cardinals
Moneyline odds: -300 (75% implied probability)
Yes, I did say don’t blow your wad on top teams too early into the pool. But if I’ve learned anything when it comes to playing survivor pools, it’s not to get too cute — especially early on.
Let everyone overthink it and shoot themselves in the foot. You want to take the Chicago Bears out of the gate? Be my guest.
As it stands, the Buffalo Bills are the second most popular Week 1 pick across many survivor pools, but not the most popular. Buffalo is drawing around 14% of selections, which pales in comparison to the Cincinnati Bengals, who are drawing 40% of picks for their Week 1 date with the New England Patriots.
The Bills are a 5.5-point home favorite against the Arizona Cardinals with a moneyline priced at -300, which presents an implied win probability of 75%. That’s also the second highest on the Week 1 board.
I’m down on Buffalo this season, so tossing it away early into the pool isn’t a tragedy. The Bills could be one of those popular picks that burn half the field later in the season, but not against the Cardinals. Arizona’s defense has its hands full with Josh Allen & Co.
Safest pick: 
Cincinnati Bengals
Opponent: vs. New England Patriots
Moneyline odds: -420 (80.77% implied probability)
As mentioned, the Bengals are the most popular survivor pool selection in Week 1 with more than 40% of contests putting their faith in Cincinnati. And why not?
Joe Burrow enters Week 1 healthy — a rarity for the franchise QB — and the Patriots appear destined for the bottom of the AFC in the post-Belichick era. Cincinnati is a -420 chalk on the moneyline, which gives the Bengals an implied probability of better than 80% in Week 1.
The biggest issue burning the Bengals this soon into the season is their worth later on. Cincinnati has a lot of future value down the road, most notably as a big favorite in the second half of the season.
Team to avoid in Week 1
San Francisco 49ers
Opponent: vs. New York Jets
Moneyline odds: -215 (68.25% implied probability)
The San Francisco 49ers boast the fourth-highest win percentage — based on their NFL Week 1 odds — when they host the New York Jets on Monday Night Football. However, San Francisco could be missing two key cogs on offense with WR Brandon Aiyuk and standout OL Trent Williams holding out.
Even with those stars up in the air for this non-conference clash, San Francisco has seen the fifth-most selections from survivor pool players in Week 1, drawing just under 5% of picks.
And then we have the mystery of an Aaron Rodgers-led Jets team. Former 49ers assistant and current New York head coach Robert Saleh has one of the best defenses in the land and several weapons surrounding Rodgers, who returns from an Achilles injury suffered in Week 1 last year.
The Niners are another team with a surplus of value later in the schedule, whether it be against other strong foes or as a big-fave take toward the end of the year. Poolies should wait and see when Aiyuk and Williams will return before putting their life in San Fran’s hands.
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