There are tough decisions to be made in NFL Week 11.
With Covers’ 10K Pro Football Survivor contest down to just 23 entries (of the nearly 3,800), should I risk it with an up-and-down team this Sunday to keep those heavyweights in my back pocket?
Or do I play it safe and let the rest of the pool shoot themselves in the foot?
At this point in the schedule, the options get much more limited, especially when you start throwing bye weeks into the mix (we sure miss picking against the Panthers and Giants in Week 11).
Here’s my Week 11 NFL survivor pool pick and the safest selection, according to the NFL odds.
Teams used: Buffalo, L.A. Chargers, Seattle, Houston, Chicago, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Denver, Minnesota, Philadelphia
Best survivor pool bets for Week 11
Covers Week 11 survivor pool pick
Detroit Lions
Opponent: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Moneyline odds: -727 (87.91% implied win probability)
I was initially leaning toward the Miami Dolphins as my Week 11 survivor selection, but something doesn’t quite sit right with the Fins.
Miami is on a short week after winning at L.A. on Monday and ripe for a letdown against a Las Vegas team coming off the bye. The odds say the Dolphins are a safe bet, but the Raiders have been known to pull an upset out of their ass.
Instead, I’m playing it safe in Week 11 and hoping others have backed themselves into a corner. The Detroit Lions are currently the biggest favorite of the season, laying almost two touchdowns to the Jacksonville Jaguars at home.
Jacksonville will likely be without quarterback Trevor Lawrence for what is already the team’s seventh game away from home this season (two games in the UK). Waiting for the Jaguars is a much-needed bye in Week 12 and perhaps the fate of head coach Doug Pederson, who could be more concerned about updating his resume than trying to defeat Detroit.
While using the Lions takes one of the stronger selections off the board, Detroit still has some tough road contests looming. Considering the teams I have remaining, I feel that I’ve plodded a smooth path to Week 18 — even without the Lions as an option.
Safest Week 11 survivor pool pick
Detroit Lions
Opponent: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Moneyline odds: -727 (87.91% implied win probability)
In the topsy-turvy world of 2024 survivor pools, the “safest” pick has been anything but. Just ask anyone who had to sweat out Kansas City last week.
Detroit, however, is motoring toward the postseason and got a wake-up call with a close one versus Houston on Sunday night.
The Lions look like the best two-way team in the NFL and hold an average margin of +13.3 points at home. Jacksonville hasn’t won a true road game yet, losing those outings by an average of almost nine points.
If we look at NFL moneyline favorites of -700 and above, they’ve won at an 89% rate since 2000. Put those chalky teams at home and they’re victorious 91% of the time over the past 25 seasons.
Most popular Week 11 picks in the Covers $10K survivor pool
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