Week 2 hit NFL survivor pools like a tornado in the trailer park, leaving less than 17% of entries in Covers' free-to-play Pro Football Survivor Contest still standing to see Week 3.
After Week 1 results took a sizable chunk out of the pools, Week 2 was a great white bite with big faves like Baltimore, San Francisco, Dallas, Detroit, and Philadelphia all going down.
Luckily for me, I avoided those clubs and banked on the Los Angeles Chargers — or more the poor play of the Carolina Panthers — to get me through. The Bolts came up big, with a one-sided win.
I do expect the wild upsets to temper in Week 3, so don’t think you’re wise riding that crazy train into Week 4. That said, there are some sizable favorites I would avoid like the plague this Sunday.
The pressure doesn’t usually mount until October, but with poolies giving northern white rhinos a run for their money on the extinction charts, you’re going to be very wary of the most popular picks going forward without sticking your neck out too far.
Here’s my NFL Week 3 selection for Covers $10K Pro Football Survivor Contest as well as the team projected to be the “safest” picks on the board — a spot that featured the Bengals and Ravens the last two weeks. So, get ready with that grain of salt.
Teams used: Bills, Chargers
Best survivor pool bets for Week 3
Click on each pick to read the full analysis.
Covers Week 3 survivor pool pick
Seattle Seahawks
Opponent: vs. Miami Dolphins
Moneyline odds: -240 (70.6% win probability)
Wins over Denver and New England might not make for the sexiest 2-0 record, but Mike Macdonald has instantly transformed the Seattle Seahawks into one of the best defenses in the NFL.
The advanced metrics — which adjust for strength of opponent — love the Seahawks, ranking them No. 1 in Defensive DVOA at FTN, No. 7 in EPA allowed per play, and third in success rate allowed (35.8%).
Enter the Miami Dolphins, who are scrambling on offense after losing QB1 Tua Tagovailoa to a concussion last Thursday.
Miami has had extra time to pick up the pieces, but it’s still marching out backup Skylar Thompson… on the road… inside Lumen Field. Yikes. Mix in a pass rush generating the second-highest pressure rate through two weeks and a 3-0 start for Seattle is there for the taking.
The Seahawks offense is a little worrying, with injuries on the offensive line and RB Kenneth Walker likely sitting another Sunday. Seattle can get one-dimensional without the rushing attack keeping rivals guessing.
However, Geno Smith can do serious damage with the deep ball when given time and Miami’s defense is doo doo, ranked 31st in EPA allowed per dropback with six passing plays of 20-plus yards allowed through two games.
The Seahawks are a smart pick in Week 3 considering they probably won’t be this big a favorite the rest of the way. Survivor pool grids show little future value in them down the road, so strike while the coffee is hot in Seattle.
Covers Week 3 safest survivor pool pick
Cincinnati Bengals
Opponent: vs. Washington Commanders
Moneyline odds: -400 (80% win probability)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: an AFC North member is the safest pick in your survivor pool.
Famous last words.
If you’re reading this, you likely avoided the Cincinnati Bengals’ bed-shitting performance against the Patriots in Week 1 and skipped over the Ravens’ equally as stinky showing versus Vegas last Sunday.
In its defense, Cincinnati gave Kansas City all it could handle in Week 2 (along with a weak-ass DPI call on the final drive) and is hoping to have WR Tee Higgins back against the Washington Commanders.
The Commies somehow beat the Giants despite not scoring a touchdown and finishing 0-for-6 inside the red zone last weekend. As for Dan Quinn’s defense, it's going through serious growing pains with Washington near the bottom of just about every defensive statistic.
The 0-2 Bengals are thirsty for victory and need to win back the Cincy crowd at home on Monday Night Football.
Most popular Week 3 picks in the Covers $10K survivor pool
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