Have you ever checked out a sportsbook’s NFL betting lines and noticed something like this?
| Team | Spread | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Team B | +9.0 | -125 |
| Team A | -9.0 | +105 |
Teasers are bets that can be valuable if used correctly — in fact, using teasers made using the logic presented in this article went 5-1 in 2021 and 8-2 in 2022. This guide will explain basic strategies you should use in 2024 when playing teasers to help maximize your profit potential.
Modern NFL teaser strategy at a glance
For the uninitiated, a teaser is a combo bet (like a parlay) with fixed odds (unlike a parlay). You pick a set number of points and a certain number of teams, and each spread is moved in your favor by the selected point amount.
However, you are required to pick from the spreads that are displayed on the default screen, and this is why books throw out non-key numbers with lopsided juice. In short, they don't want to give you a -7 spread that you can use a six-point teaser on to bring to -1. Instead, they want you to take the -9 spread and land on -3, giving them extra points of cushion.
Nevertheless, below is an example of what a three-team, six-point teaser with +150 odds would look like:
| Team A -8.5 now Team A -2.5 |
| Team B +1.5 now Team B +7.5 |
| Team C +4.5 now Team C +10.5 |
| Risk $100 to win $150 |
Profit proposition
Well, for one, it is essential to know your book’s teaser rules. The most crucial distinction is the handling of pushes:
- Some books count pushes as losses.
- Some count pushes as pushes.
- Some offer you different odds for either.
In the 7,992 games since 1995, a whopping 18 games (0.23%) have ended in a tie. So, by going from -1 to +1 (or vice versa), you are fundamentally gaining just one point but paying two points to do so.
So what should we be targeting?
So what does that look like?
Using the example spreads from before:
Team A -8.5 now Team A -2.5 (crosses -7 and -3)
Team B +1.5 now Team B +7.5 (crosses +3 and +7)
Team C +4.5 now Team C +10.5 (crosses +7 and +10)
Teasers with NFL totals
But what about totals? Quite simply, it is wise to avoid teasing NFL totals because any point stretch of totals will never come close in cumulative frequency to an equal point stretch in spreads that includes three and seven.
For example, the highest six-point cumulative frequency in totals is about 19% (typically from 40-45), whereas the six-point stretch going from three through seven has a frequency of 44%. By playing a total in this example, you are reducing your cumulative frequency by 2.3x.
The one thing totals can help us with when it comes to teasers is helping us get the most out of the type of spreads we pick. Lower totals fundamentally imply that each point in that game is harder to come by. So intuitively, each point we’re gaining on a low total game spread adds to our frequency sum.
However, this low-total idea isn’t an original one, which brings us to the holy grail of teasers.
The Wong Teaser
In his book Sharp Sports Betting, Stanford Wong outlined a teaser strategy that would aptly be named and referred to in the industry as the “Wong Teaser.” The gist of it is:
- Play a two-team, six-point teaser
- Only play favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 and underdogs from +1.5 to +2.5
Wong Teasers provided high profits for over a decade. They were so profitable that Stanford Wong arguably changed the way books offer their lines and how they price and grade wagers.
You can look at any sportsbook today and see his influence:
- Prices of two-team teasers have become shorter
- Many books now grade any teaser with a push leg in it as a loss
- Books deliberately try to stay out of the -7.5 to -8.5 and +1.5 to +2.5 ranges
Therefore, we adapt. Many bettors have made adjustments to help improve the theoretical profit of Wong Teasers to combat the increased difficulty caused by books' adjustments over the years. Some have proven to show some promise, such as limiting it to spreads from games with totals of 49 or lower (which adds about 1.0% to the hit rate of each individual leg). Others have suggested limiting it to just home teams for both favorites and underdogs.
However, my data has shown that restricting teaser legs to home teams has reduced the hit rate of those legs by 2-3%, whereas exclusively playing road teams has increased the hit rate of those legs by around 3.0-4.5%. This intuitively makes sense given the diminishing effect of home-field advantage and how that diminishing rate has outpaced Vegas’ pricing of home teams.
To review, my suggested updated Wong Teaser strategy moving forward would be the following:
- Play two-team, six-point teasers (look for -110 odds)
- Only play favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 and underdogs from +1.5 to +2.5
- Only play games with totals of 49 or less
- Only play road teams
Smart NFL betting strategies
Examining NFL Key Numbers in 2024
Key Advanced Metrics and Stats to Add to Your NFL Betting Process
Knowing When to Buy Points on NFL Lines in 2024
How Weather Affects Your NFL Betting
How Turnover Margin Affects Win Probability and Win Totals in the NFL
What NFL Bettors Need To Know About Home-Field Advantage in 2024
NFL Teaser Strategies FAQs
According to the updated Wong Teaser, it is best to play teasers on two-team, six-point road team teasers with favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 and underdogs from +1.5 to +2.5 with totals of 49 or less. It is generally best to place the bet on Friday, Saturday, or Sunday once the betting market has settled.
The Wong teaser is a betting strategy developed by sharp bettor Stanford Wong that recommended to play a two-team, six-point teaser and to only play spread favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 and underdogs from +1.5 to +2.5.
