We’re looking at an all-rookie quarterback battle in California as Davis Mills and the Houston Texans, winners of two straight, take on Trey Lance and the San Francisco 49ers, who enter this critical Week 17 matchup as 12.5-point home favorites.
Can Mills and the Texans build off their shocking win vs. the Chargers last week? What can the 49ers expect from Lance who hasn't thrown a pass since Week 5? Find out in our NFL picks and predictions for Falcons vs. Bills.
Texans vs 49ers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
This line was San Francisco -15 on the look-ahead, opened at -15.5, and has since been bet back down to -12.5 with the news of Jimmy Garoppol’s hand injury. The total has also dropped a full point to 44 after opening at 45.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Texans vs 49ers predictions
Predictions made on 12/30/2021 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for NFL Week 17, here are two of the best welcome bonuses available:
USA: Sign up with Caesars and get your first bet matched up to $1,001! Claim Now
Canada: Bet $1, get $100 in free bets when you sign up with BetVictor! Sign Up Now
Texans vs 49ers game info
• Location: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
• Date: Sunday, January 2, 2022
• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Texans at 49ers betting preview
Weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Key injuries
Texans: Danny Amendola WR (Out).
49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo QB (Out), Azeez Al-Shaair LB (Out), Dre Greenlaw LB (Out), Maurice Hurst DT (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 4-1 in Texans' last five games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. 49ers.
Texans vs 49ers picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Texans have picked up back-to-back wins as underdogs versus the Jaguars in Week 15 and, more impressively, versus the Chargers last week. This Texans squad will also enter Week 17 much healthier, as receiver Brandin Cooks, starting center Justin Britt as well as 12 other players who were removed from the COVID list this week will play. The 12.5-point underdogs will now get to face a San Francisco team that will likely be starting rookie quarterback Trey Lance, who hasn’t thrown a pass since Week 5.
The third-overall pick in the 2021 draft, Lance has started one game this year, which was a 17-10 loss to the Cardinals as 6-point dogs in Week 5. Lance’s addition to this offense isn’t a boost, as the market has already dropped the Niners three points and moved them through the 14 to 12.5.
In Lance’s lone start this year, he went 15-for-29 passing for 192 yards and an interception. He added another 16(!) rushes for 89 yards. He'll see a Houston defense that picked off Justin Herbert twice last week and created three turnovers. The Texans did allow 7.8 yards per play and scored a special teams touchdown in that game, but the offense was the difference as it gained 8.9 yards per pass and will get the services of Cooks back, which is big news if you watched the 49ers defend the pass in Week 16.
The Titans had one option in the passing game last week versus the 49ers and San Fran still had no answer for AJ Brown, who finished with an 11/145/1. The San Francisco third-down defense got embarrassed by the weak passing attack of the Titans and allowed them to go 9 for 16 on third downs, as this San Fran secondary couldn’t get off the field.
There was a lot of talk about the 49ers pass rush heading into last week’s meeting with the Titans, as Tennessee was missing the entire left side of its offensive line. The Niners failed to take advantage of the prime matchup and now will see an offensive line that sits in the middle of the league in pressure allowed and has conceded just four sacks over its last three games.
The 49ers should be able to rely on the run game and gain yards against Houston’s No. 30 rush defense in EPA/play, and with Trey Sermon likely ready to suit up and Elijah Mitchell possible to return, Lance’s impact should be minimal. However, this San Francisco secondary is tough to back laying 12.5 points, which is the highest spread this team has seen all year.
Prediction: Texans +12.5
Over/Under analysis
This total has slipped one point after opening at 45 but now sits on the key number of 44. Mills’ improvements with the offense has Houston averaging 28 points per game over its last three games, and its 5.6 yards per play over that stretch is the same as the Buccaneers.
Houston will likely be chasing points on Sunday, but with Rex Burkhead showing some life on the ground and Mills throwing for 794 yards and five scores in his three games since taking over the starting role again, this Houston offense should be able to play within two scores versus a San Francisco pass defense that sits in the Bottom 10 in EPA/play.
Jimmy Garoppolo showed us his weaknesses at QB last week but with him under center, this offense still manages 6.0 yards per play which ranks No. 2 in the league behind only the Rams. Kyle Shanahan turned Jimmy G into an efficient QB somehow, and due to his creativity and exceptional play design, big plays are always lurking within this offense, even with Lance under center.
The Houston defense ranks 31st in average explosive run rate and has surrendered more runs of 10-plus yards than any other team in football. Because of their great running game, the 49ers sit third in the league in average explosive pass rate as no team uses play-action more than Shanahan’s squad.
With both offenses able to take advantage of the opposing defense’s weaknesses, we could see plenty of big plays on Sunday. Mills and Cooks should be enough to successfully chase points, and at 44, this is an Over for us.
Prediction: Over 44 (-110)
Best bet
In a game that will likely feature two rookie quarterbacks, we aren’t afraid of betting on points. The Texans sport one of the worst all-around defenses in football and if given time, this San Francisco secondary can get picked apart, even against offenses that are one-receiver-heavy.
Despite only managing 10 points in his first start, Lance’s offense still totaled 338 yards against a Cardinals’ defense that was playing good football at that time. George Kittle was unavailable while Elijah Mitchell never finished the game due to injury. Lance will have more options, more experience, and is facing one of the worst defenses in the league. Points will be scored on both sides.
Pick: Over 44 (-110)
