The Cleveland Browns had an extra week to get their former-No.1 running game healthy, and look to stay in the AFC playoff race as they host the 2-6 Houston Texans, who almost blew a late lead to a rookie QB and the Jaguars last week.
Cleveland will likely get back RB Nick Chubb, but QB Baker Mayfield is back with the team after close scare with COVID-19 and a brief stay on the reserve list.
The Texans opened as +2.5 underdogs, but that number has moved to +3 and is trending to +3.5. The total has dropped a full point to 53 after opening at 54.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Texans vs Browns on November 15 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns Betting Preview
Weather
The first half of this 1 p.m. ET start could see rain, which will stop midway through the game. Winds are blowing SW with gusts up to 50 mph and temperatures will be in the mid-50s. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Texans: David Johnson RB (Out).
Browns: Odell Beckham Jr. WR (Out), Jacob Phillips LB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against a team with a losing record. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Browns.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
With PFF’s No. 1 guard Wyatt Teller back at practice this week and RB Nick Chubb expected back after the team’s bye, the Browns will finally have their league-best running attack back for the first time since Week 4. It couldn’t come at a better time for an offense that averaged just 3.9 yards per carry without Chubb, as Houston boasts the No. 27 rush defense per Football Outsiders.
The Browns have cleaned up the garbage this year as they average 38.75 points per game against teams with losing records and are 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) in those matches. They have also covered in three of their four non-divisional games and are playing a Texans team that is 1-7 ATS with the only cover coming against the Jaguars.
Houston is 0-5 ATS as an underdog this year and could be without running back David Johnson who will have to clear the concussion protocol if he wants to suit up. Backup RB Duke Johnson averaged just 2.9 yards per carry in 16 totes last week against the Jaguars’ 23rd rushing defense.
This is a line we’re getting on early before it moves off the three.
PREDICTION: Cleveland -3 (-115)
Over/Under Pick
Cleveland is a perfect 8-0 O/U in its last eight games against teams with a losing record, and 6-0 O/U in its previous six after scoring less than 15.
The Browns and Raiders played in poor conditions in a Week 8 game that saw just 22 total points scored. Before that, Cleveland was 5-1 O/U in its last six, and those games were averaging 13 points above the closing total. In fact, in their six Overs on the year, they have all hit by 6.5 points or more, keeping the perspiration away for Over backers.
Both teams are giving up nearly 30 points a game, so the defense shouldn’t be a threat to these capable offenses. We will be monitoring the weather in Cleveland as winds and rain are in the early forecast. We have no problem hitting the over as long as the wind stays under the magical number of 19-20 mph.
PREDICTION: Over 53 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
The Houston secondary has been one of those most generous to opposing QBs and WRs this year. The Texans are allowing the third-most passing TDs per game at 2.2, and over their last three games have given up nine total passing TDs. They even gave up a 73-yard TD on Jake Luton’s first NFL pass last week. This is an exploitable unit.
After being briefly placed on the COVID/reserve list, the word is good about Baker Mayfield returning to practice Wednesday after testing negative (like Matthew Stafford last week). Assuming he suits up, Mayfield will be a great play for his Over 1.5 passing TDs.
On the year, he is just 5-7 O/U on 1.5 passing TDs, which should give us a decent price. Over his last four games, his Over 1.5 passing TDs price has averaged -130 which is just on the line of acceptable juice in our rule book.
In his four games against sub-500 teams, Mayfield has 11 TDs to just two interceptions. Even without Odell Beckam, he is capable of hanging two or more passing TDs, especially if the running game gets going and Houston is forced to go single safety to stop the run.
PREDICTION: Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 passing TDs (+115)
Texans vs Browns Betting Card
- Cleveland -3 (-115)
- Over 53 (-110)
- Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 passing TDs (+115)
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