The Houston Texans had an entire offseason to think about what could have been, following their loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in last year’s AFC Divisional Round.
Houston blew a 24-0 second-quarter lead in that game, eventually losing 51-31 to the Chiefs, who would use that comeback as a springboard to the franchise’s first Super Bowl in 50 years. The Texans get another shot at Kansas City, kicking off the 2020 NFL season as 9.5-point NFL betting underdogs on Thursday Night Football in Week 1.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Texans vs. Chiefs on September 10.
Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Injuries
Texans: Phillip Gaines CB (Probable), Keke Coutee WR (Questionable), Brandin Cooks WR (Probable)
Chiefs: Rickey Seals-Jones TE (Probable), Alex Brown CB (Out), Damien Williams RB (Out), Laurent Duvernay-Tardif G (Out), Travis Kelce TE (Probable)
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings between the Texans and Chiefs. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Chiefs.
Against the spread pick
The Texans haven’t been able to ease into the schedule in past years. In 2018, Houston opened the season with a trip to New England. Last year, the Texans traveled to New Orleans in Week 1. And this September, the team takes on the defending Super Bowl champs in a primetime season kickoff.
The pressure in on Houston to perform, not just because of what happened against Kansas City in the playoffs, but because Bill O’Brien shipped stud wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins off in a surprise trade this March, for oft-injured running back David Johnson and a sampler of draft picks.
The Texans ran the ball more than most clubs in 2019 (11th), handing off on more than 42 percent of their snaps, and have a potent backfield combo in “Johnson & Johnson”, with Duke Johnson sharing carries – and catches – with the new guy.
Houston’s best plan for Thursday is to play a little defense on offense, leaning into that running game to chew up short gains and keep the clock ticking (and keeping the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands) while also rolling out those receiving RBs to exploit some weak coverage from Kansas City’s linebackers.
The Chiefs gave up 4.9 yards per carry to foes in 2019 and allowed running backs to total 1,039 yards receiving – second-most in the NFL. Those weaknesses will allow Houston to control the tempo and make it tough for Kansas City to cover this lofty spread.
PREDICTION: Houston +9.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
These teams hung 82 points on the board in that Divisional Round game and scored 55 when they clashed in Week 6 last season. This total opened at 56.5 points way back in the spring and the early money has taken the Under, moving the number to 54 points heading into Week 1.
I do expect the Texans to keep Kansas City’s defense guessing with a healthy dose of the running backs, and O’Brien doesn’t want to feed Deshaun Watson to the wolves against a dangerous Chiefs pass rush. Houston’s offense has plenty of adequate receiving options but will miss Hopkins’ hands when plays break down.
As for the Chiefs, it’s Patrick Mahomes man. He makes everyone around him better and has a slew of skill players to go to. Kansas City will score, but the opportunities to do so may be limited. Houston dominated time of possession when it beat K.C. in Arrowhead last October (39:48 TOP) and even in that postseason flop (34:35 TOP).
PREDICTION: Under 54 (-110)
Player prop pick
One of the worst kept secrets heading into the 2020 season is the potential around Kansas City rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
This is a player near and dear to my heart. Not only did he help my LSU Tigers win the national title last year, but he also cashed in for me as the first RB taken in the NFL Draft at 13/1 odds. CEH is everyone’s fantasy football sleeper pick, especially after Damien Williams opted out and Edwards-Helaire made heads turn at training camp this summer.
One aspect of his game that didn’t really shine until the end of LSU’s magical season was his pass-catching. Edwards-Helaire reeled in 325 yards through the air in the final six games of SEC play and added 54 yards receiving in the CFP Championship Game. And with the blueprint for pass-catching backs already built in Kansas City by Kareem Hunt a couple of years back, Edwards-Helaire will see plenty of targets.
Houston gave up 1,058 receiving yards and nine touchdown catches to running backs last season – most in the NFL just ahead of KC – and will have its hands full with this first-year flash on Thursday night.
PREDICTION: Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 30.5 receiving yards (-112)
Texans vs Chiefs betting card
- Houston +9.5 (-110)
- Under 54 (-110)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 30.5 receiving yards (-112)
Did you know that if you parlayed this week’s NFL Texans vs. Chiefs picks, you could win $58.99 on a $10 bet?
Use our NFL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on the NFL?
You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbooks, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.
