The Houston Texans look to extend their lead atop the AFC South when they travel to face the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.
The Texans are losers of four of their last six but still hold a two-game lead over the Colts and look to rebound after a surprise loss to the Titans last week.
The Jaguars look to finally have Trevor Lawrence back from injury, but with just two wins, they’re playing for nothing more than draft position after a historic defeat to the Lions prior to the bye.
Let’s break down the Texans vs. Jaguars predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, December 1.
Texans vs Jaguars prediction
My best bet
Tank Dell Over 51.5 receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Houston Texans WR Nico Collins had 15 targets in the first meeting, six more than Stefon Diggs, on his way to a 151-yard outing. But there was plenty of yardage to go around, as Diggs caught five passes for 69 yards. Even Dare Ogunbowale got in on the action, with the back picking up 47 receiving yards on four catches.
Tank Dell missed that game, but he’s ready to get his big day against a Jacksonville Jaguars secondary that is the worst in the NFL. The Jags are allowing more than 290 receiving yards per game, second-most in the league. They’re also allowing the seventh-most receiving yards per game to edge receivers, which is where Dell will be lined up opposite Collins.
In the two games since Collins returned to the lineup, Dell has been targeted on 17.9% of Stroud’s pass attempts. He’s caught seven of those 12 targets, gaining at least 54 yards in both contests. Last week he caught five passes for 72 yards against the Titans, including a 39-yard gain. That catch marked the third time in four games that he’s had a reception of 25+ yards.
The Jaguars will have to pay extra attention to Collins. Despite missing four games, the receiver ranks eighth in the NFL with 21 catches of 15+ yards this season. He had five such catches—nearly half of the 12 he caught on the day—in the first meeting. One of those was a 26-yard gain to open Houston’s final drive, which saw Texans QB C.J. Stroud throw a one-yard touchdown pass with 18 seconds remaining to give the Texans the win.
So far this season, the Jags have given up 48+ receiving yards to at least two different players in nine of their 11 games. In fact, the Lions, Vikings, Packers, and Dolphins each had three different players reach that plateau.
Dell’s average depth of target this season is 11.7 yards, but last week it jumped to 21 yards on five targets as he racked up 2.06 yards per route run. He’s posted his top three YPRR marks of the season over the last four games, and he will go for 52+ here against a defense that’s been handing out gifts well before the holiday season began.
Texans vs Jaguars same-game parlay
Tank Dell Over 51.5 receiving yards
Travis Etienne Over 30.5 rushing yards
Texans team total Over 23.5
The Jacksonville backfield situation is an interesting one. While Travis Etienne, Jr is the starter, he and Tank Bigsby have both had games where they’ve been given the bulk of the carries depending on the situation and who is producing.
They’ve had only one game where they both thrived—and that was the first meeting with Houston. Etienne rushed for 50 yards on 11 carries while Bigsby toted it seven times for 90 yards.
Etienne’s had more carries in the last two games since returning from injury, and he’s got the lower yardage total of the two. I like him to break 30 against a Texan defense that’s allowed 100+ rushing yards in three of their last four games.
The Jaguars have all allowed 24 or more points to seven of their last nine opponents, and their 23 passing touchdowns allowed are second-most in the league behind the Texans. Houston has scored 22+ points in eight of its last nine games, and I like them to at least replicate the 24 points from the first meeting.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Texans vs Jaguars odds
Texans vs Jaguars live odds
Texans vs Jaguars opening odds
- Spread: Houston -6 (-115) | Jacksonville +6 (-105)
- Moneyline: Houston (-275) | Jacksonville (+225)
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Texans vs Jaguars spread and Over/Under analysis
- News of Lawrence’s return had a huge impact on the spread, with the Texans going from laying six points to now being just 3.5-pt favorites. 89% of the bets at BetMGM are taking Houston and laying the points.
- The Texans are just 2-3 ATS in their last five but have gone 3-1 in their last four road games. The Jaguars failed to cover last time out, ending a run of four straight ATS wins.
- The total was also impacted by the news of Lawrence being available, moving up from 42.5 at open to 44 on Friday. The majority of BetMGM bettors are taking the Over, with 69% of the action on that side.
- The Texans have had two straight Overs cash, but the Under is 6-3-1 in their last 10. The Over is 6-1 in Jacksonville’s last seven.
Texans vs Jaguars betting trend to know
The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 away games (+5.25 Units / 34% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Jaguars.
Texans vs Jaguars game info
| Location: | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-1, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Texans vs Jaguars latest injuries
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